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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 104
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 104
Good afternoon! Bitcoin began the week with a bang, which saw $70,000 almost breached. However, the market has since backed down, and many are now plotting out their next predictions for direction for the remainder of July. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, as well as important dates and key news stories:
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Fuel Runs Empty
Bitcoin was on the cusp of breaking out of its consolidation range until it underwent a correction on Monday.
Bitcoin Overview
Bitcoin was closing in on another underside retest of the prolonged resistance level that has capped upside momentum over the last five months.
With the fall-off in momentum, bitcoin underwent a fast retrace and landed back at a key level.
If bitcoin can hold strong, there could be potential for another rally towards a test of the range high. However, if weakness prevails, a drop towards $64,000 could occur.
What Is Stonksy Saying?
On the 4-hour chart, Stonksy provided a clear indication that selling pressure may have been exhausted when bitcoin dropped to $64,000 last week.
This resulted in Stonksy flattening at the -1 region and began to show signs that bitcoin was leaning back to the upside. Bitcoin followed this indication and began a strong rally.
Stonksy also indicated that the bullish momentum may have been subsiding close to the local high, with the drop occurring simultaneously.
Ethereum
Ethereum held up strongly against bitcoin following the drop on Monday, with ETH refusing to bow down to bitcoin’s selling pressure.
This resulted in Ethereum retracing most of the initial drop caused by bitcoin’s downside move.
The next task for ETH is to fully retrace the ETF sell-off and attempt to break through resistance. If this happens, a run towards $4,000 could occur.
Solana
Solana did not respond well to Monday’s market movement as it tumbled from the $193 region and quickly headed towards a key level.
The $179 level marks the area for a bounce or breakdown upon another test and it could provide the origin to a move back towards $200 or a further drop to $171.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides at 67 and is within the Greed segment.
The Index reflects bitcoin’s position close to its all-time high and the recent strong momentum.
If bitcoin breaks to the upside, the Index would likely shift into Extreme Greed rapidly.
Important Dates
Wednesday, 31 July, 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets due to increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 149,000, with the previous data coming in at 150,000. Therefore, the ADP expects a slight rise in employment.
Wednesday 31 July, 18:00 UTC - Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Markets Committee meets eight times a year. The Fed discusses recent economic data and the strength of the US economy before deciding whether to increase, decrease, or leave rates unchanged.
The Federal Reserve is comprised of a Board of Governors that assists its Chair, Jerome Powell, in making interest rate decisions and steering the US economy.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC. Afterwards, a press conference will begin at 18:30, during which Powell will give a 30-minute speech before taking questions from the press.
The consensus is that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.
Thursday 1 August, 14:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark.
The consensus is set at 48.8, with the previous data at 48.2.
Friday, 2 August, 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 175,000, with the previous data at 206,000.
Gainers
Losers
Macro Summer? This Analyst Says BTC Will Soon Break Into The Banana Zone
Pal said the current macro environment is the crypto summer’s perfect timing during election years.
Global Macro Investor and crypto OG Raoul Pal says the digital asset macro summer is commencing and should span over the rest of 2024 and into 2025.
In a series of tweets, Pal, also the co-founder and CEO of financial media platform Real Vision, outlined several macroeconomic factors that indicate that bitcoin (BTC) would soon break into the Banana Zone.
BTC to Skyrocket Soon
According to Pal, two-year yields have formed a large top with a potential 2.5%, and the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has likely completed its healthy correction.
Pal said the current macro environment is perfect for the crypto summer during election years. With inflation slowing down, the crypto analyst thinks a weaker US dollar could ease the financial environment further and propel the macro summer. He believes this series of events may take a little time or could occur alongside the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Regardless, Pal insists that good times are ahead, and BTC is ready to break the “giant cup and handle” and surge into the Banana Zone. Likewise, gold will soon experience its next bull run.
What is Macro Summer?
The Banana Zone is a term Pal coined, which refers to a period of sustained upward price movement of financial assets. The Banana Zone contrasts with the Boring Zone, a period of little to no gains and an opportunity for investors to “load up” digital assets before they skyrocket.
Pal thinks investors should take advantage of the Boring Zone to avoid charging into the market with greed and the fear of missing out (FOMO) when things turn around. He calls the Banana Zone a “huge wealth-generating machine” that will reward patient investors.
It is worth mentioning that Macro/Crypto Summer and Fall are part of Pal’s Everything Code thesis. He revealed that the concept is driven by global liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022. According to the Real Vision CEO, Crypto Summer is also altcoin season, and it starts and develops after the Bitcoin halving.
While tech stocks love Macro Summer, Bitcoin and other crypto assets love the season even more. Pal expects global liquidity to rise until the end of 2025, altcoin season to commence soon, and the crypto market to fully enter the banana zone.
Ferrari Launches Crypto Payment System in Europe
Ferrari has launched their crypto payment system in Europe following the successful launch of the system in the US.
Ferrari is set to expand its cryptocurrency payment system to Europe after its successful launch in the United States.
From the end of July 2024, Ferrari will introduce a crypto payment feature within its network of European dealers, as announced in a press release on 24 July. The company noted that most of its European dealers had already adopted or were in the process of adopting this new payment system, which would run alongside traditional payment methods.
Ferrari stated:
“By the end of 2024, we will extend cryptocurrency transactions to other countries in our international dealer network, where cryptocurrencies are legally accepted.”
Expansion into Europe Follows US Launch
Ferrari's move into the European market follows the successful implementation of its crypto payment system in the US in October 2023.
At the time, Ferrari partnered with BitPay to facilitate their crypto payment option. BitPay is a major crypto payment firm that also serves global brands such as AMC Theaters.
In its recent announcement, Ferrari highlighted that its crypto payment tools eliminate the need for dealers to manage cryptocurrencies directly. Instead, customers' cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, can be automatically and instantaneously converted into fiat currencies.
Ferrari added, “The providers’ solutions will also ensure the verification of the source of funds and protect transactions from price fluctuations related to exchange rates.”
Crypto For Cars
If you were to take Ferrari up on their offer, how much crypto would you need to buy a Ferrari?
The price of a 2024 Ferrari 812 GTS starts at $429,815; to buy one in bitcoin, you'll need 6.48 BTC.
If you had your eye on a Ferrari SF90XX Spider but only owned Shiba Inu, you would need to accumulate 53,866,786,910.34 SHIB tokens to afford one.
Finally, if you had a slightly cheaper taste and were looking for a 2024 Ferrari Portofino, which costs around $240,000, you would need around $40m CHIPPY tokens if they accept them for payment.
Which Tokens Are Unlocking In August?
XRP is the headline name in the list of tokens which are unlocking over the coming month.
August’s token unlocks could see almost $1.5bn in value entering the market, with much of the value coming from the one billion XRP tokens due to being unlocked.
The tokens, worth $609m at current prices, are scheduled to unlock on 1 August.
XRP creator Ripple has been unlocking up to a billion tokens on the first day of every month since 2017. They do this through a few different escrow wallets to distribute the tokens evenly each month.
Despite the unlock, there may be less impact on the token price than expected. Ripple has a tendency to re-lock tokens from newly released assets. In June, the company re-locked 800 million XRP tokens.
Despite re-locking a large portion, the company still sold around 300m tokens, which were worth $182m at the time.
Although up to one billion XRP tokens are unlocked at the start of each month, the actual amount released into circulation is "likely much less than this" due to a re-escrow process, as noted by XRP Ledger in a 2017 blog post.
Other significant token unlocks in August include those from layer-1 network Avalanche and cross-chain bridging platform Wormhole, releasing a combined $449m worth of tokens, per Token Unlocks data.
On 3 August, Wormhole will unlock 33.3% of its circulating supply, amounting to 600m Wormhole (W) tokens with a current market value of $180.5m.
Following this, on 20 August, Avalanche will unlock 2.4% of its circulating supply of Avalanche (AVAX) tokens, amounting to 9.4m AVAX with a current market value of $268m.
Several other projects will unlock significant portions of their supply on 1 August. Layer-1 network Sui will release 2.56% of its circulating supply, equating to 64m tokens worth $50m.
dYdX will unlock 8.33m tokens worth nearly $11m, or 3.65% of its circulating supply, for investors, founders, staff, and future employees. ZetaChain will unlock almost 18.9% of its circulating supply, or 53.9m ZetaChain (ZETA) tokens, valued at around $34.5m.
ImmutableX also has a token unlock scheduled for 9 August, where 2.11% of the circulating supply will be released, amounting to 32.5m tokens. Following this, on 12 August, $80m worth of Aptos (APT) tokens will be released.
Rounding off a busy two weeks for token unlocks will be The Sandbox, which is scheduled to release $69m worth of its native token, SAND, on 14 August.
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