- Crypto Saving Expert's Newsletter
- Posts
- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 106
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 106
Good morning! Following a strong recovery last week, bitcoin is now poised to break through a challenging zone and potentially pave the way toward this year's highs. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, as well as important dates and key news stories:
Table of Contents
Sponsored by:
🟣 PHEMEX 🟣 $8,800 FREE 👇
Bitcoin Looks For The Breakthrough
After recovering well last week, bitcoin is looking to break through a challenging zone and open up the route towards the yearly highs.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin had a strong end to the week after the initial drop below $50,000. By Thursday, bitcoin tipped over $62,000 and erased most of its recent losses.
However, the price has yet to fully reclaim the high time frame range low, a vital metric to bitcoin’s overall structure.
The most bullish move from here would be for bitcoin to push over $61,000 and begin to show signs of strength into the weekly close on Sunday and close the candle back inside the range.
Still, it is possible that bitcoin will remain ranging throughout August and pull its next move in September. Bitcoin must regain $60,000 to provide a bullish outlook and the route to higher prices.
Weekly Candle
Last week’s price action formed a high wave candle on the weekly chart. This candle can be viewed as a trend-reversal signal.
If this becomes a reality, the multi-month sell-off could be reversed and the consistent lower highs broken.
On the chart, bitcoin would have to close a weekly candle above $70,000 to break the structure, potentially leading to new highs.
Ethereum
Ethereum has also recovered well but faces the arduous task of forming a more bullish outlook.
The price must reclaim the $3,000 level, a multi-month support level. If ETH can do this, it could look to build momentum back towards the 2024 highs.
Still, a consolidation period on Ethereum could also be witnessed in the coming weeks. of consolidation on Ethereum, bitcoin and other cryptos cannot be ruled out.
Solana
Solana differs from bitcoin and Ethereum as it remains inside its trading range and did not break to new lows.
Solana is divided into two ranges, with $160 being pivotal for the price swing in either direction.
This means that Solana trades between $120-$160 and $160-$190.
Based on this, the task for SOL is to break through $160 and hold above, which opens the door for a run back towards $190.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index remains low at 31 and within the Fear segment.
Despite bitcoin’s recovery, investor sentiment has failed to improve and the current conditions appear to be leaving market participants unsure about bitcoin’s next move.
If bitcoin can regain $60,000 and hold above, sentiment will likely improve.
Important Dates
Tuesday 13 August, 12:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity producers. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 2.7%, with the previous data at 3%.
Wednesday 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.9%, with the previous data at 3%.
Thursday 15 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at 0.3%, with the previous figure at 0%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data is not forecasted, but the previous data came in at 0.9%.
Friday 16 August, 14:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan releases the index, which is a survey depicting consumer confidence in the economy. The survey provides insight into consumers’ confidence to spend money within the US economy.
The Index’s score is set to come in at 66.7, with the previous data coming in at 66.4.
Gainers
Losers
Ether Turns Inflationary As Emission Outpaces Burn Rate
Over 540,958 ETH has been issued in 2024, compared to only 465,657 ETH burned as of 5 August.
Ether has returned to being inflationary for the first time since 2022. Data shows the amount of ETH burned on the Ethereum network has fallen to its lowest level this year, following a drop in ETH base fee.
ETH Emissions Outpace Burns
On 10 August, Ethereum’s base fee was seen at a multi-year low of ~0.8 gwei. The lower gas prices entail a lower amount of ETH burned, which is insufficient to offset new ETH issued into circulation via staking rewards.
For instance, the net ETH emission on 10 August was reported at over 2,100 ETH, while only 210 ETH was burned.
As of 5 August, 540,958 ETH have been issued into circulation since this year. However, only a total of 465,657 ETH have been burned, resulting in a positive net emission of 75,301 ETH, according to Coingecko data.
The ETH stats. Source: CoinGecko
For context, the second-largest crypto has been deflationary from 2022 Q4 till 2024 Q1. The inflationary supply began in Q2 when 107,725 ETH was burned amid declining gas fees, compared to 333,555 ETH in Q1 2024.
Ethereum May Need to Raise Gas Limit
In a tweet on Saturday, Gnosis founder Martin Köppelmann suggested that Ethereum needs to get more layer-one activity or consider raising the gas limit to resolve the issue.
“The base fee is at a multi-year low of ~0.8 GWEI. 23.9 would be required to offset staking rewards. IMO, Ethereum needs to get more L1 activity again, and even if it sounds counterintuitive at such low rates, raising the gas limit can be part of a strategy,” Köppelmann posted.
Gwei costs. Source: Etherscan
At the time of writing, Ethereum’s low transaction priority fee was 6 gwei, while the high-priority fee was only 11 gwei. During the ERC-404 token frenzy in February, a standard transaction on Ethereum was about 70 gwei, with the high-priority fee costing around 377 gwei.
Polkadot Double Bottom Signals A Bullish Reversal Towards $10
A double-bottom pattern on the weekly chart could negate Polkadot’s current trend.
Polkadot (DOT) has had a rough few months in the crypto markets alongside most altcoins, dropping by 69.8% from March’s local peak of $11.889 to a local low of $3.59 set earlier this month.
However, there might be light at the end of the tunnel for Polkadot. Since its November 2021 peak value of $55, Polkadot’s price action has formed a potential double bottom pattern with a neckline at $11.889, as seen in the weekly DOT/USDT chart below.
The double bottom. Source: Tradingview
Double bottom patterns are usually used in classical technical analysis to identify a major trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Therefore, should the bulls take control of the situation, DOT/USDT could slowly and steadily push towards the $10 psychological level or the $11.889 neckline between now and the first half of 2025.
Polkadot’s trend change is further highlighted by the momentum of the Skonksy indicator in the one-day DOT/USDT chart below, turning from dark red to bright red.
Polkadot Also Has a Falling Wedge on the 2-Day Chart
Crypto analyst @ZAYKCharts also identified Polkadot’s bullishness on a macro level, posting the following DOT/USDT chart on X demonstrating a falling wedge on the 2-day timeframe.
DOT’s falling wedge. Source: @ZAYKCHarts on X
Falling wedge patterns, like the earlier identified double bottom, indicate a reversal of trends from bearish to bullish.
@ZAYKCharts, who has a history of accurate market predictions, has, therefore, given DOT/USDT a $10 price target should the falling wedge break out on the upside.
Polkadot’s 1-Day Chart Suggests DOT/USDT Has Bottomed Out
Polkadot’s trend change is further highlighted by the momentum of the Skonksy indicator in the one-day DOT/USDT chart below, turning from dark red to bright red.
This further suggests that the digital asset may have bottomed out of the local low of $3.59.
The DOT chart. Source: Tradingview
Swap the 9-5 For Crypto: Why Crypto Saving Expert Premium Could Help You Reach Your Trading Dreams
Ever dreamed of swapping the day job for a full time trading position. Crypto Saving Expert Premium could help you get there.
For those looking to elevate their trading game, Crypto Saving Expert's premium membership offers a comprehensive toolkit designed to enhance your trading abilities through community support, expert insights, and exclusive resources.
Community Help and Discussion
At the heart of Crypto Saving Expert's premium membership is a vibrant community of like-minded traders and enthusiasts.
Through our comprehensive Discord channels, members can engage in lively discussions, share trading strategies, and seek advice from peers about the financial markets and their positions. This communal knowledge-sharing fosters a collaborative environment where everyone can benefit from diverse perspectives and collective wisdom.
Discord Access to Top Traders
Imagine having direct access to top traders, individuals with a proven track record of success in navigating the complexities of cryptocurrency markets.
Crypto Saving Expert's premium membership grants you access to Discord channels where experienced traders share their insights, discuss market trends in real time, while providing valuable tips that could influence your trading decisions. This direct line to seasoned experts can help you stay ahead of market trends and refine your trading tactics.
One-on-One Tuition from Top Traders
Learning directly from seasoned professionals is invaluable for anyone looking to improve their trading skills.
Crypto Saving Expert premium members can receive personalised one-on-one tuition sessions with top traders. These sessions can help you deepen your understanding of technical analysis, refine your trading strategies, and gain practical insights that may not be readily available through traditional educational resources. This bespoke guidance can accelerate your learning curve and enhance your trading performance.
Weekly AMAs and Market Discussions
Staying informed about market developments and identifying promising altcoins are crucial for effective trading. Through weekly Ask-Me-Anything (AMA) sessions, Crypto Saving Expert brings together members and experts to discuss market trends, evaluate potential investment opportunities, and address pressing questions.
These sessions keep you informed and empower you to make well-informed decisions in a dynamic market environment. The ability to engage directly with experts ensures that you have access to the latest insights and can adapt your strategies accordingly.
The Stonksy Trading Indicator
Among the arsenal of tools available to premium members on an annual plan is the Stonksy trading indicator, a sophisticated trading indicator designed to analyse market data and identify potential trading opportunities.
Developed by experts in cryptocurrency trading, Stonksy provides members with actionable insights and signals that can enhance their ability to time trades effectively and capitalise on market fluctuations. This powerful tool can be a game-changer, giving you the edge needed to make informed and profitable trading decisions.
Conclusion
Crypto Saving Expert's premium membership is more than just access to resources; it's a gateway to a thriving community, expert guidance, and exclusive insights that can transform your approach to cryptocurrency trading.
Whether you're a novice looking to learn from the best or an experienced trader seeking to refine your strategies, the benefits of membership extend far beyond the surface, offering a competitive advantage in an increasingly competitive market.
Join Crypto Saving Expert's premium membership today and unlock the full potential of your trading journey. Embrace the power of community, tap into the wisdom of top traders, and gain access to tools like the Stonksy trading indicator—all geared towards helping you navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency markets with confidence and precision.
👉 If you're eager to connect with like-minded individuals and propel your crypto success to new heights, then CSE Plus+ is the community you've been searching for.
🏎️ In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies, networking with fellow enthusiasts and experts can be the key to unlocking valuable insights, innovative strategies, and profitable opportunities.
👥 Our exclusive Discord channel is where passionate crypto aficionados converge, sharing their knowledge, experiences, and market analyses.
🤝 Together, we're shaping the future of crypto, and by joining CSE Plus+, you'll be at the forefront of this exciting journey towards financial empowerment and crypto excellence.
🚨 Do not miss out on the chance to supercharge your crypto endeavours – join CSE Plus+ today!
🙌 Use code = CSE10
💰 This code gives 10% off entire annual membership options!
This Newsletter is strictly for informational purposes only; the content is generic and has not been tailored in any way. Crypto Saving Expert UAB (“CSE”) is not providing, and should not be interpreted as providing, any form of offer of any currency, security, financial instrument or digital asset, or investment advice, recommendations or strategy. The content of this Newsletter is not intended to replace your own research with regard to any assets, products or services, and any action taken on the basis of this material is entirely at your own risk. CSE neither accepts nor assumes any liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of, or in any way connected to, the Newsletter content. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets may be unregulated in your jurisdiction, any profits may be subject to tax and the value of any investment could fall.
If you click on a link within this Newsletter to go through to a provider, we may get paid. This usually only happens if you get a product/use a service from it. This is what helps fund CSE and keeps the majority of our content free to use. Two crucial things you should know about this, however: a) this never impacts our editorial recommendations, if something is included, it is because we independently rate it as the best; and b) you will always get as good a deal, or better, than if you went direct. For full details on how CSE is funded, please click here.
CSE collects, processes and stores certain data. Such data may be shared with CSE’s wholly owned subsidiary company, Crypto Saving Expert Limited. Please note that by submitting information about yourself to CSE you are consenting to such use. For full details on our collection, processing and storage of data, together with your rights in relation thereto, please consult our Privacy Statement here.