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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 111
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 111
Good morning! Bitcoin has retraced most of last week’s losses with a solid start to the new week. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
Bitcoin Looks For A Recovery
Bitcoin is eyeing a recovery after dropping by 11% last week down towards $52,500.
Bitcoin’s Outlook
Bitcoin has retraced most of last week’s losses with a solid start to the new week.
For this move to become more than just a short squeeze bounce, the price must reclaim $58,500. From there, the target of the $60,000 level would open up.
It is imperative that bitcoin builds on this upside momentum and does not fall back towards the lows. Otherwise a drop below $50,000 may become the likely outcome.
Higher Low?
Since bitcoin made a new all-time high in March, it has been in a steady downtrend.
This resulted in a series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) formed on the daily chart, indicating that price strength could not be sustained.
However, the drop to $52,500 last week could have been the first step in changing the high time frame trend.
Currently, it has created what could be a higher low (HL). This would be the first sign of a change in the trend, with a higher high (HH) following.
BTC Dominance
Bitcoin dominance remains strong and within its long-term channel.
This demonstrates bitcoin’s strength in the market and the weakness in altcoins.
There are two possibilities for a drastic change in bitcoin dominance from here. It could continue to grind higher and come into the high time frame supply zone around the 61%-62% range. This would also see it come into contact with the channel’s top again.
A reversal would be likely from there, and the rotation into altcoins could begin.
On the other hand, it could start to drop from around the current levels and fall out of the channel. This would likely result in the same result as altcoins beginning to gain strength.
Ethereum
Ethereum could be forming a double-bottom pattern, which could signal a trend reversal.
The price must reclaim the $2,550 level, which has acted as recent support turned resistance.
From there, another attempt at breaking back above $2,800 would be vital. This is a high time frame level which flipped to resistance in August.
Above it, and ETH has room to run above $3,000 again. Still, it is a step-by-step ETH approach based on the above levels.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index remains mostly unchanged from last week, with a score of 33.
Fear within investors is prominent as bitcoin is on the brink of reversing the downtrend or falling below $50,000.
If bitcoin manages to reclaim $60,000, sentiment could improve. However, dropping below $50,000 would cause the Index to fall deep into Extreme Greed.
Important Dates
Wednesday 11 September, 01:00 UTC - Presidential Debate
Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will participate in a debate ahead of the 2024 election in November. The event will take place in Philadelphia at the National Constitution Center and it will be the first time that both candidates meet in a televised debate.
Wednesday 11 September 12:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.6%, with the previous data at 2.9%.
Thursday 12 September, 12:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity producers. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 2.5%, with the previous data at 2.4%.
Friday 13 September, 14:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan releases the index, which is a survey depicting consumer confidence in the economy. The survey provides insight into consumers’ confidence to spend money within the US economy.
The Index’s score is set to come in at 68, with the previous data coming in at 67.9.
Gainers
Losers
Large Bitcoin Holders Are Still Accumulating Amid Market Dump: ITB
Addresses holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC now control 4.01m BTC, approximately 20.3% of the asset's circulating supply.
Bitcoin (BTC) is down almost 8% monthly, but large investors are still accumulating, signifying a strong belief in the asset's long-term potential.
A tweet from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock revealed that addresses holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC have experienced a 5% increase in their collective portfolio in six months, indicating growing accumulation despite the current market condition.
Large BTC Holders Are Accumulating
Per IntoTheBlock's analysis, these addresses held about 3.82m BTC six months ago; however, that figure has risen following the 5% increase. Addresses holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC now control 4.01m BTC, approximately 20.3% of the asset's circulating supply.
Large investors are not the only cohort of market participants that have been busy on the Bitcoin network. Analysts found that the number of Bitcoin transactions between $10 and $100 also surged by 100% in the past 30 days and that they currently account for 50% of the total transactions on the blockchain.
Interestingly, this accumulation trend can also be seen on the Ethereum network. Data on IntoTheBlock shows that Ethereum's largest holders have been increasing their dominance on the network since 2019 by consistently topping their ether (ETH) stash. The accumulation intensified last year, and the addresses now control more than 43% of ether's circulating supply, gradually approaching the 48% collectively held by retail investors.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Last week, IntoTheBlock also noted the continued BTC accumulation from large holders, even as crypto exchanges recorded $728m in withdrawals. The withdrawals also extended to the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) market, which saw its longest outflow streak since inception, a combined net outflow of $1.2b over the past eight days.
The substantial outflow from ETFs marked bitcoin's rocky start to a month historically known to be bearish. Six out of the last seven Septembers have all ended with BTC in the red, recording an average plunge of 4.5%.
Several analysts speculate that BTC could fall as low as $50,000 as the month progresses. The asset was worth roughly $56,100 at the time of writing. Others believe there is a chance for a positive trajectory that could see the bulls take the reins; however, this would depend on the strength of the US economy and how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
Trump Reaffirms Crypto Support, Taps Elon Musk For Government Efficiency Task Force
Republican Presidential Candidate, Donald Trump, has reaffirmed his commitment to crypto.
United States Republican Presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump has reiterated his support for the cryptocurrency industry and endorsed tech billionaire Elon Musk to lead a newly proposed government task force.
Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on 5 September, Trump emphasised his commitment to advancing the digital asset sector.
He stated that he plans to cut outdated regulations to foster innovation, including in emerging industries like crypto, if re-elected.
“Instead of attacking the industries of the future, we will embrace them—making America the global capital for crypto and bitcoin,” Trump declared.
During the event, Trump also expressed gratitude to Tesla CEO Elon Musk for his endorsement and revealed plans for a government efficiency commission. The task force would conduct a full financial and performance audit of the federal government, proposing sweeping reforms.
"We need to make significant changes and can’t continue on the current path," Trump added.
Musk echoed Trump’s vision in a post on X on 6 September, stating that such an initiative is "badly needed" and would "unlock tremendous prosperity for America." Musk has agreed to lead the task force if his schedule permits, with Trump affirming that he believes Musk is well-suited for the job.
“Elon, despite his busy schedule, has agreed to take on the role. If he can make time, he’s the right person for it,” Trump remarked.
Musk responded by saying, “I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises. No pay, no title, no recognition is necessary,” in a post shared on 5 September.
Bitcoin Could Hit $90k Next Quarter If This Happens
BTC could rally to $90,000 if Donald Trump wins the election but nosedive if Kamala Harris emerges victorious.
While the crypto market struggles with declining prices and negative sentiment, analysts are igniting hope for a possible major rally in the next quarter.
A Monday Research report by investment advisor and brokerage Bernstein predicted that bitcoin (BTC) could skyrocket to $90,000 or plummet to $30,000 in Q4 2024, depending on the outcome of the United States presidential elections scheduled for 5 November.
Bitcoin to $90k If Trump Wins
According to Bernstein analysts, BTC could rally to $90,000 if the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, wins the election. Conversely, the leading digital asset could fall to the $30,000-$40,000 level if the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins.
Trump adopted a pro-crypto stance and has been vocal about his plans for the US regarding cryptocurrencies. Among his numerous pro-crypto promises, the former US president vowed to fire the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman Gary Gensler and hire crypto-friendly regulators upon his election.
In addition, Trump has promised to protect Bitcoin from crypto-sceptic legislators and to prevent the creation of a US central bank digital currency, which he tagged a threat to freedom. The Republican candidate is pushing for all remaining BTC to be mined in the US to strengthen the nation’s energy dominance.
Besides his pro-crypto views, Trump owns millions of dollars worth of digital assets, including ether (ETH), USD Coin (USDC), and some memecoins he inspired.
If Kamala Harris Wins?
During the Bitcoin Nashville Conference less than two months ago, Trump emphasised the need for a national strategic Bitcoin reserve and a crypto advisory council to the president. In fact, the presidential candidate has mentioned cryptocurrencies in almost every speech, all to show his support for the sector.
Harris, on the other hand, rarely mentions crypto in her speeches. Although a US crypto group has launched a campaign to support the Democratic candidate and several executives have endorsed her, Bernstein analysts believe her victory would not have a positive effect on bitcoin’s price.
The analysts stated: “After the last three years of regulatory purge, a positive crypto regulatory policy can spur innovation again and bring the users back to financial products on the blockchain. Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade.”
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