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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 113
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 113
Good afternoon! Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture where it could break out of its seven-month downtrend as we move into Q4. This has the potential to be its strongest September performance in over a decade. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. š
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
Bitcoinās Surprising September
Bitcoin is at a point where it could break the market structure of the seven-month downtrend as it heads into Q4, which typically sees a strong performance for crypto and the financial markets, so much so that the month of October is often termed 'Pumptober'.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin is on track to have its best September performance in the post-2013 era. At the time of writing, bitcoin was up over 8%, marking a rare green September, which has historically been a poor month for price action.
From here, bitcoin must break above the local resistance level to open the door for more upside. In this scenario, bitcoin could move straight towards retesting the highs if the momentum is sustained.
In the circumstance that bitcoin stalls, dips could provide opportunities to ride the trend reversal if it occurs.
Bitcoinās Market Structure
Since March, bitcoin has cemented a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, the price is on the cusp of breaking the market structure and invalidating the last lower high formed.
If bitcoin can make one more push higher, it would create a high and see the previous low become the low in the new structure. From there, bitcoin could form a higher low before moving towards the highs.
BNB
On Sunday, 29 September, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) will be released from US custody after serving his four-month jail sentence.
This could spark a rally in BNB, but first, it must overcome the high time frame supply zone that has capped upside momentum for seven months, aside from one occasion.
Flipping this zone to support would allow BNB to run towards a new all-time high and potentially towards $800 and then on to $918.
Still, the price has work to do before new highs can be targetted.
Ethereum
Over the past week, ETH/BTC has seen some relief after reaching its lowest point since April 2021.
This led to Ethereum reclaiming the key lower time frame S/R level.
Now, the price must regain its status above $2,800 to show further signs of strength, which could lead to a move up to $3,250.
Still, much like BNB, there is work to be done before this becomes possible, but it could signal a shift in ETHās higher time frame performance.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index moved up into Neutral as bitcoin rose last week. The index resides at 54.
This represents growing confidence among investors, with a move towards $70,000 likely pushing the Index back into Greed. Still, it will stay sensitive to downside movement in the price and could drop into Fear again.
Important Dates
Thursday, 26 September 12:30 UTC - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The GDP demonstrates the monetary value of all US goods, services, and structures. The GDP is a critical measurement of the economy's strength as it demonstrates economic growth or slowdown.
The GDP is forecasted at 3%, with the previous data at 3%.
Thursday, 26 September 13:20 UTC - Jerome Powell Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a pre-recorded opening remarks at the 2024 US Treasury Market Conference in New York.
Friday, 27 September 12:30 UTC - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE data, which measures the average amount of money consumers spend monthly in the economy.
PCE is released in two formats: month-over-month and year-on-year. The data also removes volatile products, such as energy and food.
The year-on-year data is forecast to come in at 2.7%, with the previous data at 2.6%.
Gainers
Losers
Kamala Harris Makes First Public Statement on Cryptocurrency in 2024 Presidential Campaign
US Vice President Kamala Harris made her first public remarks on cryptocurrency during her 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, highlighting her commitment to fostering innovation in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital assets.
Her comments on AI and digital assets were made during a Wall Street fundraiser, reflecting her focus on advancing emerging technologies while ensuring regulatory clarity.
During her speech at the Manhattan event, Harris stated:
"We will collaborate to invest in America's competitiveness and its future, promoting cutting-edge technologies like AI and digital assets while ensuring the protection of consumers and investors"
Harris Supports Pro-Business Environment with Crypto Innovation
During the fundraiser, Harris also emphasised the need for a business-friendly regulatory environment, saying, "We will establish clear, consistent rules to create a safe space for business. We'll invest in industries like semiconductors, clean energy, and other future-focused sectors, while eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy."
This speech marks the first time Kamala Harris has addressed cryptocurrency publicly since becoming the frontrunner for the Democratic Partyās presidential nomination. Her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, has similarly engaged with the crypto sector, seeking to build support among digital asset enthusiasts.
Crypto Industry Speculates on Harrisā Crypto Policy
The crypto industry has speculated on whether Harris' stance on cryptocurrency will differ from that of President Joe Biden, who some see as less supportive of the sector.
In August, Brian Nelson, a senior adviser to Harrisā campaign, suggested that she would likely support crypto-friendly policies if elected. However, Harris has stressed the need for "rules of the road", citing the collapse of several crypto companies as evidence that regulation is crucial for protecting consumers.
Reactions from Crypto Leaders
Faryar Shirzad, Chief Policy Officer at Coinbase, called Harris' statement "important and constructive" in a Sept. 22 post on X.
"While it's not as bold as Donald Trumpās positions, it's notable that Harris acknowledges the importance of digital asset innovation, placing it on par with AI," Shirzad remarked.
Meanwhile, Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant, was less positive, stating, "While 'protecting consumers and investors' is crucial, it could also serve as a cover for overregulation."
Cryptocurrency a Key Issue in 2024 U.S. Presidential Race
Cryptocurrency has become a major campaign issue in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with top crypto firms, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini, spending nearly $120m to influence voters, according to a Public Citizen report in August.
Solana Mobile Unveils Chapter 2 of Its Crypto Smartphone Dubbed Seeker
Users who pre-ordered the mobile phone at $500 lament as Solana Mobile drops the price to $450.
Solana Labs-owned mobile technology firm Solana Mobile has finally unveiled the long-awaited Chapter 2 of its crypto smartphone.
The new device, dubbed Seeker, was revealed at the crypto-focused Token 2049 Singapore event. Seeker trails Solana Mobileās first mobile device, Saga. The latest smartphone promises advanced features compared to its predecessor. Although pre-orders have since commenced, users will receive the device in early 2025.
Solana Mobile Unveils Seeker
Since the start of the year, Solana Mobile has won investorsā attention with its Chapter 2 smartphone. In a month, the mobile tech firm generated $45m from the presale of over 100,000 pre-order units.
According to Solana Mobile, the Solana Seeker has a āmobile-firstā Seed Vault wallet advocating self-custodial services and a more intuitive user experience than the Solana Saga. Updated decentralised applications (dApps) are also available on the Solana Mobile dApp Store.
Each Seeker device has a soulbound token (SBT) called the Seeker Genesis Token, which paves the way to exclusive benefits within the Solana ecosystem. These perks cut across dApps, decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols, games, payments, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and more.
Seeker phone users will also benefit from exclusive perks within blockchain protocols like Helium, Moonshot, Colony, Helium, and DEX Screener.
Through a partnership with the artificial intelligence project Alethea AI, Solana Mobile integrated ātokenised AI agents,ā featuring new and familiar faces like Solana Labsā CEO Anatoly Yakovenko. This allows users to interact with programs and the Solana community.
Users Lament Over Price Change
Solana Mobile revealed that it would offer the new phone for $450 until the end of the Solana Breakpoint event on 21 September.
However, the price sparked debate among community members, as many users paid a $500 pre-order price for the same device. With Solana Mobileās current price tag, some investors feel cheated.
Still, others console themselves with the fact that investors in the presale from earlier this year received several airdrops worth more than the invested amount.
Could SUI Challenge SOL for The Spot as Number One Alternative Blockchain?
Sui Network is emerging as a strong competitor to Solana in the layer-1 blockchain space, with advanced technology, growing adoption, and an upcoming gaming console. Discover how Sui's architecture and market performance could reshape the 'alt L1' landscape.
Solana may currently be the leading alternative layer-1 blockchain behind Ethereum, but the landscape could be changing, as the Sui Network has the potential to challenge Solanaās position, according to K33 Research analysts.
In an 18 September report, David Zimmerman, K33ās DeFi analyst, highlighted Suiās performance compared to Solana, noting its technical architecture and the upcoming game console release as factors that could elevate it among "alt L1s." Comparing the chain to SOL, he stated:
āSolana often grabs the spotlight in the layer-1 competition, but while SOL/ETH has risen 6% since August, SUI/SOL has surged 115% during the same period.ā
He acknowledged that some of Suiās recent market outperformance ā its native token (SUI) has risen 36% over the past week ā might be due to broader market āmispricing,ā but added that SUI ādefinitelyā has the fundamentals to justify the recent price increase.
Zimmerman explained that Suiās technical capabilities allow it to compete with Solana.
Suiās theoretical transaction capacity is 297,000 transactions per second (TPS), compared to Solanaās 65,000. However, actual performance differs: Solanaās real TPS peaks around 3,000, while Sui hit a maximum of 854 TPS in July 2023.
āSui has developed impressive technology, possibly the most advanced in the space. However, it has yet to surpass Solana in practice and metrics like daily average TPS,ā Zimmerman said. This will only change as the chain gains more support.
One notable challenge for Sui is its token supply. Zimmerman pointed out that Sui was launched in May 2023 with a low circulating supply and high fully diluted valuation (FDV) tokenomics, which means that less than 27% of its supply is in circulation.
There are mitigating factors in this low release, as over 50% of the tokens are currently listed as to be released after 2030. Token emissions for SUI stand at 64m SUI per month, roughly increasing the supply by 2.4% per month.
In contrast to the low float, 80% of Solanaās token supply is already in circulation.
Despite Suiās potential to close the gap with Solana in the āL1 wars,ā Zimmerman believes Ethereum remains secure in its dominant position. āSui brings a lot to the competitive L1 space, but the market still views non-Ethereum L1s as āEthereum competitors.ā In a post-US spot ETH ETF world, weāve placed Ethereum in its own category,ā he concluded.
The research note follows the news on 17 September, that Circle, the issuer of USDC, would be launching USDC on the Sui network, signalling further adoption and support for the chain.
Another bullish factor for Sui is its upcoming gaming console, the SuiPlay0x1, developed by Mysten Labs, its main developer. Set to launch next year, the console will come with a native NFT called āEternals,ā which could offer users exclusive rewards.
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