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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 114
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 114
Good morning! October's historical double-digit gains are why the month is often called “Uptober” in the crypto-verse. However, past performances might not be enough to propel Bitcoin higher with the new month. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Solana and SUI, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Enters ‘Uptober’
Bitcoin has entered October, dubbed ‘Uptober’ due to its typically positive price action over the course of the month.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin witnessed a retrace on Monday following its rise above $66,000.
The price could still undergo another drop to clean up the lows left behind during last week’s short consolidation period.
However, the focus remains on bitcoin building sustained upward momentum and the pullback could be nothing more than a healthy correction after a strong upside move.
July’s high at $70,000 is now in focus as the next upside level for a liquidity sweep. If bitcoin provides this, it could either undergo another retrace or make a break towards an all-time high.
October Candles
October, known as Uptober for bitcoin, is historically a month of good performance.
As seen on the chart, October candles typically close green and are some of the biggest during a bull cycle.
Here’s how October has treated bitcoin historically:
2023: +28.52%
2022: +5.56%
2021: +39.93%
2020: +27.7%
2019: +10.17%
2018: -3.83%
2017: +47.81%
2016: +14.71%
2015: +33.49%
2014: -12.95%
2013: +60.79%
If the trend continues, bitcoin could record a new all-time high this month.
Solana
Solana is at a critical point. It is pressing the $160 resistance level that has capped upside momentum on the previous two occasions it tested it.
If SOL manages to reclaim it, the move towards $185 could be explosive after suppression at resistance for several months. From there, the target of all-time highs can be looked at.
Still, the possibility of a further drop remains if bitcoin heads lower.
SUI
SUI was one of the best performers in the top 100 throughout September. The coin became a hot topic and gained traction from market participants.
SUI is just 17% away from its all-time high. If the upside momentum continues, it could enter price discovery, with an additional gain of 73% taking it to a $10bn market cap.
To claim a spot in the top 10, SUI must reach roughly $5.70.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index moved up into Greed last week following bitcoin’s move to $66,000. However, following the drop on Monday, the Index has fallen into Neutral with a score of 50.
The quick shift in sentiment demonstrates that the market remains sensitive to minor moves in bitcoin and investors are yet to become confident again.
Important Dates
Tuesday, 1 October, 14:00 UTC - ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) provides an overview of economic business conditions, signalling potential strengths or weaknesses in the economy. The consensus is set at 47.5, with the previous data at 47.2. A score above 50 is a positive reading.
Wednesday, 2 October, 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets due to increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 120,000, with the previous data coming in at 99,000. Therefore, the ADP expects a slight rise in employment.
Thursday, 3 October, 14:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark.
The consensus is set at 51.6, with the previous data at 51.5
Friday, 4 October, 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 140,000, with the previous data at 142,000.
Gainers
Losers
Bitcoin's Expected "Uptober" Rally Likely to Face Headwinds
High open interest and a bearish one-day chart could derail bitcoin’s anticipated double-digit gains in October.
Despite a bearish first few days and a bearish forecast, September is on track to close on a positive note for bitcoin.
Data below from Coinglass shows that the number one crypto is on track to close the month in the green with 7.67% returns, starkly contrasting previous red Septembers and an average monthly return of -3.74%.
Bitcoin's monthly performance. Source: Coinglass
The same historical data shows that October has been a green month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 22.90%. All Octobers since 2013 have provided double-digit returns save for 2014 (-12.95%), 2018 (-3.83%) and 2022 (5.56%), prompting expectations of a green October this year.
Bitcoin Likely to Face Headwinds in “Uptober”
October's historical double-digit gains are why the month is often called “Uptober” in the crypto-verse.
However, past performances might not be enough to propel Bitcoin higher with the new month.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin is in a high-risk zone due to “a very high amount of open interest.”
“Since March 2024, Open Interest has surpassed $18 billion on six separate occasions, each time leading to a local price peak. Currently, we are above that threshold for the seventh time, which raises my concerns,” Maartunn explained in a 28 September Quicktake post.
From a technical analysis point of view, the one-day BTC/USDT chart below paints a bleak start for bitcoin in October after a massive sell-off today (30 September) that could result in a loss of the crucial 200-day (green) moving average and the $64,000 support.
The bitcoin chart. Source: Tradingview
The daily MFI (green), MACD, and RSI (red) hint at an overbought scenario that could result in a continuation of selling until the $62,000 or even the $60,000 support.
In addition, the Stonksy indicator’s momentum has turned from dark green to light green, suggesting that the bulls are losing ground, reducing the chances of a bounce back above $65,000.
SEC Wants to Appeal Ripple Ruling
“Everyone over there [at the SEC] truly believes that the decision is wrong,” a former SEC attorney reveals.
A former SEC lawyer has revealed that the agency will likely appeal Judge Analisa Torres’s ruling concerning the programmatic sales of Ripple (XRP).
After a contentious legal fight between Ripple and SEC, which started in Dec. 2020, Judge Torres scored a partial victory for Ripple in July 2023.
SEC Could Appeal Judge Torres's Ruling in XPR Case
The federal judge ruled that the direct sales of XRP tokens, worth $728.9m, to institutional investors constituted unlawful securities sales. However, the "programmatic sales" worth $757m, where Ripple did not know who the buyer was, weren’t a violation.
At the time, a spokesperson for the SEC said the agency would "continue to review the decision," but it was never clear whether or not the SEC intends to appeal the ruling, at least until now.
“Everyone over there [at the SEC] truly believes that the decision is wrong, that it’s not good law, and should be appealed,” the former SEC lawyer told Fox Business journalist, Eleanor Terret.
Ripple Lawyers Say SEC Has Lost The Plot
The SEC has until 7 October to file its appeal. Attorney Jeremy Hogan believes the agency has lost the plot.
“Of COURSE they think the opinion is wrong - they were on the losing side,” Hogan posted on X. “What the SEC SHOULD be thinking of right now is whether an appeal furthers its mandate of investor protection and capital formation. Why isnt that top of mind?”
XRP’s price seems fazed by the unfolding development. At the time of writing, XPR was trading at $0.587 at over $33bn market cap.
Of all the top 10 crypto by market cap, XRP is the only crypto on a loss in both the 24-hour and 7-day timeframe. The price is down 0.38% and 0.15%, respectively.
Base's Total Value Locked Hits Record $2.2bn: Data
Base's TVL currently sits at $2.2bn, representing a 380% growth from the beginning of the year and a 33% increase from a month ago.
Although the crypto market is in choppy waters, several projects are still experiencing significant growth and development. One is Base, an Ethereum-based layer-2 network created by Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange.
Data from decentralised finance total value locked (TVL) aggregator DeFiLlama shows that Base's TVL just hit $2.2bn for the first time since its inception. This feat came barely a year after Base was officially released to the public.
Base TVL Surpasses $2.2bn
Base's TVL currently stands at $2.2bn, with a 24-hour volume of $478m. The protocol has a 24-hour active address count of 1.43 million and a stablecoin market cap of $3.68bn. The network's latest milestone represents a 380% growth from the $438mn in TVL recorded at the beginning of the year and a 33% increase from $1.6bn a month ago.
Steady on-chain activity has driven Base's remarkable growth over the past month, from the introduction of the Base Name Service (BNS) to the launch of the Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin (cbBTC).
Coinbase unveiled BNS on 21 August, aiming to offer the same experience as the Ethereum Name Service. Users can now establish their identities on Base by registering their addresses with human-readable names. On the other hand, the exchange launched cbBTC on 12 September, enabling holders to access a diverse range of decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols, features, and applications not available to the native bitcoin (BTC).
BNS and cbBTC have collectively boosted Base's on-chain activity with new users flocking to the network. Earlier this week, the protocol's daily active addresses surged past two million for the first time. Base now accounts for the majority of the active addresses among layer-2 networks on Ethereum.
Base's Main Contributors
Projects built on Base have also contributed to the increase in the network's TVL over the past year. Decentralised exchange (DEX) Aerodrome is the largest contributor, with a TVL of $1.125bn and a 24-hour volume of $243mn. Uniswap, another DEX, follows suit with a TVL of $221mn. The third-largest contributor is lending and leveraged yield farming protocol Extra Finance, which has deposits totalling $138mn.
In addition, Base has become the second-largest optimistic rollup by deposits after Arbitrum, which has a TVL of roughly $2.52bn, per data from CoinGecko. At the rate at which Base is growing, it could surpass Arbitrum in the coming weeks.
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