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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 118
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 118
Good morning! Uptober looks set to end the month stronger than ever as bitcoin eyes all-time highs as price drives through key resistance levels. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Trajectory Points Upwards
Bitcoin could be on course to test its all-time high as demand remains strong on dips, and the price is cruising through vital resistance.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin appears to have flipped the troublesome diagonal trendline that caused the series of lower highs this year.
The price is now making an assault on the last line of defence for bears before bitcoin breaks to new all-time highs.
The horizontal resistance in the $71,500-$72,500 region is the last obstacle for bitcoin to overcome before the route towards $80,000 is opened up.
Golden Cross
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a golden cross on the 50-day (50DMA) and 200-day (200DMA) moving averages.
This is the first time this has occurred on bitcoin since late October 2023.
Following the cross last year, bitcoin underwent a huge rally, which ended with the creation of the current all-time high. If bitcoin breaks above resistance, a similar outcome could be on the cards.
Solana
Solana has shown strength in the market alongside bitcoin.
The price completed an S/R flip of the $160 level, which has led to it pushing up towards the next hurdle.
SOL must find acceptance above $190 for higher price before testing the $202 region. These are likely to be the final bosses for Solana before a run towards the ATH occurs.
SOL/ETH
While Solana is demonstrating strength, it is gaining ground on Ethereum. This is reflected in the SOL/ETH chart.
Solana is breaking to new highs against ETH, with the chart in discovery mode. The next two stops for the chart on the high time frame could be the 1.618 and 2.618 levels, which would see SOL continue to outperform.
However, this may also simply be a repricing of SOL’s market cap. Currently, it is 3.7 times smaller than ETH’s. Given the demand and chain usage, this gap could be on its way to becoming much smaller.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index remains within the Greed section as it scores 72.
Bitcoin’s resilience to push back over $70,000 after several attempts and dips appear to have excited investors about the chance of a breakout.
If bitcoin breaks towards its all-time high, the Index could shift into Extreme Greed this week.
Important Dates
Tuesday 29 October, 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets as Solana’s increased employment suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 115,000, with the previous data coming in at 143,000. Therefore, the ADP expects a slight rise in employment.
Thursday 31 October, 12:30 UTC - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE data, which measures the average amount of money consumers spend monthly in the economy.
PCE is released in two formats: month-over-month and year-on-year. The data also removes volatile products, such as energy and food.
The year-on-year data is forecast to come in at 2.6%, with the previous data at 2.7%.
Friday, 1 November, 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 123,000, with the previous data at 254,000.
Friday, 1 November, 14:00 UTC - ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) provides an overview of economic business conditions, signalling potential strength or weakness in the economy. The consensus is set at 47.6, with the previous data at 47.2. A score above 50 is a positive reading.
Gainers
Losers
Bitcoin ETFs on the Verge of One Million Holdings: What to Expect in November
Discover how US spot Bitcoin ETFs are approaching one million bitcoins in their funds, driven by critical events in November, including the election and interest rate changes. Find out what this means for the market.
The United States spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could amass one million bitcoin in holdings as early as this week, with traders anticipating positive crypto developments in November.
Key Factors Driving Optimism for Bitcoin in November
Several significant events are contributing to this bullish sentiment, including:
- Upcoming US Election
- Federal Reserve's Potential Interest Rate Cuts
- Russia Lifting Its Bitcoin Mining Ban
All of these events are scheduled for November, creating a favourable environment for Bitcoin's price movements.
Current Holdings of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs
As it stands, the US spot BTC ETFs hold 976,893 bitcoins, valued at over $66.2bn. This represents nearly 5% of bitcoin’s total market cap of $1.34tn, according to data from Hey Apollo.
To reach the one million milestone, these ETFs would require $1.55bn in net inflows (at current prices) to acquire an additional 23,107 bitcoins. This translates to an average of $301m in daily net inflows needed to achieve this within the week, which is not out of the realm of possibility given their strong performance throughout October.
This strong performance has seen over $3.3bn flow into the ETFs since 11 October, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone drawing in $2.288bn of that flow.
Historical Context: Bitcoin and Halving Events
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant surges in the months following a halving event, with the most recent one occurring in April 2024. The outcome of the US presidential election on 5 November may also serve as a catalyst for bitcoin's price movements.
For instance, after the May 2020 halving and Joe Biden's election victory, Bitcoin surged nearly 43% in November 2020. CK Zheng, chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, noted that similar price increases could occur again, irrespective of the election outcome.
Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting
On 6 and 7 November, the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet, with CME Group’s Fedwatch tool indicating a 94.7% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Rate reductions typically relieve financial pressures on consumers and can have a positive short-term impact on markets.
Moreover, Russia's decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban on 1 November is considered a bullish sign for Bitcoin, enhancing network decentralisation and security.
Michael Saylor Defends Bitcoin Self-Custody After Backlash from Crypto Leaders
Michael Saylor has spoken to reiterate his support for bitcoin self-custody following criticism from Vitalik Buterin and other crypto leaders. Learn about the ongoing debate over regulated custody in crypto.
MicroStrategy founder and prominent bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor has reaffirmed his support for the right to self-custody following sharp criticism over his previous remarks endorsing regulated custody solutions for Bitcoin.
Saylor Backs Self-Custody for Those "Willing and Able"
In a post shared on X on Wednesday, Saylor addressed the backlash and clarified his stance on self-custody. “I support self-custody for those willing and able, the right to self-custody for all, and the freedom to choose the form of custody and custodian for individuals and institutions globally,” he stated.
Saylor's Comments on Regulated Bitcoin Custody Spark Backlash
Saylor's recent interview with NZ Herald journalist Madison Reidy ignited controversy when he suggested that holding Bitcoin through regulated entities such as BlackRock and Fidelity offers lower volatility risks and potential loss.
These comments were met with strong opposition from key figures in the crypto space, who viewed them as a threat to bitcoin's decentralised ethos.
Vitalik Buterin and Other Crypto Leaders Respond to Saylor
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin did not mince words, describing Saylor's comments as “batshit insane.” Buterin argued that advocating for regulated custody represents a form of regulatory capture, which he believes undermines crypto's principles.
Bitcoin pioneer Max Keiser also criticised Saylor's previous remarks, expressing concerns that such views favour the traditional banking system. “The recent comments attacking self-custody demonstrate a regressive tendency to favour the legacy, centralised banking crooks that Bitcoin fixes,” Keiser wrote on X.
Saylor Attempts to Bridge the Divide
In an effort to bridge the gap, Saylor later clarified, "Bitcoin benefits from all forms of investment by all types of entities and should welcome everyone." He stressed that Bitcoin’s growth should be inclusive of various investment strategies, including both regulated custody and self-custody.
The Self-Custody Debate Heats Up Amid Bitcoin ETF Growth
The debate over self-custody continues as traditional Bitcoin investment products, such as spot bitcoin ETFs, gain traction in the market.
Last week, the cumulative net inflows for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs crossed the $20bn mark, a significant milestone in the ETF world.
Five individuals have been sentenced to prison for their roles in a $21.6m crypto fraud scheme which drained money from 40,000 investors. The purportrators of the scam were found to have spent the stolen money on luxuries such as a shark tank, private jet trips and sex workers.
Five individuals have been sentenced to prison for their roles in a $21.6m crypto fraud, where stolen funds were spent on extravagant luxuries such as a shark tank, private jet rides, sex workers, and a luxury car.
The scam, which defrauded around 40,000 investors, centred around the EXW Wallet and the EXW crypto token, as reported by Austrian news outlet Heute on 23 October.
The criminals amassed $21.6m, or €20m through a series of fraudulent investment schemes. Two defendants received five-year prison terms, two others were sentenced to 30 months, and one was sentenced to 18 months.
Five additional suspects were acquitted, while some remain at large.
The trial, held at the Klagenfurt Regional Court, is the most significant fraud case in Austrian history.
EXW Crypto Scam: Lavish Spending and Criminal Sentencing
Judge Claudia Bandion-Ortner issued the sentences on 23 October, concluding a two-month trial that included over 300 hours of court proceedings.
According to reports, the fraudsters lived a life of luxury, frequently flying between cities in private jets and partying in some of Dubai’s most exclusive nightclubs. They even purchased a shark tank for a villa in Bali.
Reports further revealed that over $100,000 was spent on sex workers, further highlighting the scale of the lavish spending.
The fraud ring operated out of Dubai, and transported some of the stolen funds back to Austria, where many of the fraudsters are from, by smuggling the cash in plastic bags.
Legal Challenges and International Obstacles
In September 2023, Austrian prosecutors charged eight individuals linked to the EXW scam, with more indictments following in the subsequent months. However, the absence of an extradition agreement between Austria and the United Arab Emirates complicated the prosecution process. While some defendants voluntarily surrendered, others fled and remain at large.
One of the key figures, EXW Wallet co-founder Benjamin Herzog, pled guilty to fraud charges in December 2023, as reported by BehindMLM.
Several of those sentenced on 23 October plan to appeal their convictions.
EXW Wallet Fraud Scheme Collapses
The EXW Wallet scheme, launched in late 2019, promised daily returns of 0.1% to 0.32% on investments through EXW tokens. However, the fraud collapsed in 2020, leaving thousands of investors out of pocket.
In addition to the EXW-related charges, some of the defendants are also under investigation for a separate cannabis-related fraud. This scheme reportedly stole $17.2m or €16m from 17,000 victims.
Conclusion
This case highlights the ongoing risks associated with cryptocurrency investment schemes and the importance of thorough due diligence.
The EXW Wallet scam is a sobering reminder of the scale and sophistication of crypto fraud, mainly when based in jurisdictions with limited extradition agreements.
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