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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 120
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 120
Good morning! Bitcoin has had an incredible week and if Tuesday’s candle closes green, it would complete an eight-straight green day for bitcoin, with it just over 10% away from $100,000. Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
Sponsored by: Stonksy
Stonksy is a momentum identifier that aims to capture expansive market moves before they happen by highlighting the start of potential price shifts. It can be used across all markets, including crypto, stocks, indices, commodities, and currencies.
Stonksy is growing in users week-on-week, proving why it aims to become one of the most-used indicators in the industry.
Find examples of Stonksy indications posted to the X every day: @stonksyio and learn how to use Stonksy and how it can benefit your trading system on the YouTube channel.
The Bitcoin Bull Is Released
Bitcoin has broken its all-time high continuously after breaking out of its eight-month consolidation range.
Bitcoin Overview
Bitcoin is within a phase of aggressive expansion following the breakout from the eight-month consolidation range.
If Tuesday’s candle closes green, it would be the eight-straight green day for bitcoin, leaving bitcoin just over 10% away from $100,000.
Regarding upside levels, $100,000 remains the elusive and most significant milestone for bitcoin. Above that, $115,000 is a key Fibonacci level.
There is also the possibility bitcoin retests the range from above for an S/R flip at some point.
Stonksy
Stonksy is still riding the green background, 28% up from opening. This is on the 1H chart, but Stonksy also caught most of the move on the 30m, 15m, and 10m time frames.
Crucially, Stonksy entered the green background before the move started, offering the most returns. The indicator also caught the moves across the board on alts, providing a monumental week of returns.
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Find examples of Stonksy indications posted to the X every day: @stonksyio and learn how to use Stonksy and how it can benefit your trading system on the YouTube channel.
Ethereum
Ethereum has gained significant strength over the past week. It broke out of its consolidation range and has witnessed a surge to the upside, regaining a vital level.
If ETH’s momentum continues, it must face the $3,500 zone, the next obstacle blocking its path to $4,000.
After a long spell of weakness in the market, Ethereum is finally beginning to warm up.
Solana
Solana is approaching its all-time high.
The $250 level is the final boss that separates the price from entering discovery mode and printing new highs.
In terms of upside levels, $412 is the 1.618 Fibonacci level from the last cycle high to the low. Then, $662 is the 2.618 level, with both potentially acting as good markers for the price.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index moved into Extreme Greed following bitcoin’s breakout and push above $80,000 and resides at 80.
The change demonstrates the excitement and positivity within investor sentiment after eight months of consolidation in the market. If bitcoin continues towards $100,000, the index could push into the 90s.
Important Dates
Wednesday 13 November, 13:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.6%, with the previous data at 2.4%.
Thursday 14 November, 13:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity producers. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 2.9%, with the previous data at 2.8%.
Thursday 14 November, 20:00 UTC - Jerome Powell Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled "Global Perspectives" about the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Friday 15 November, 13:30 UTC - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at 0.3%, with the previous figure at 0.4%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data is not forecasted, but the previous data came in at 0.7%.
Gainers
Losers
Who is Peter Todd, The Man HBO Called Satoshi Nakamoto
In early October 2024 HBO premiered their controversial documentary aimed at uncovering who Satoshi Nakamoto really was. The answer they came up with was Peter Todd, but who is he? This article seeks to answer that question.
On 8 October 2024, HBO aired its controversial documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, which named Peter Todd, a prominent Bitcoin developer, as the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin—Satoshi Nakamoto.
Despite these bold assertions, Todd has categorically denied being Nakamoto, stating on X, “I’m not Satoshi.”
Who Is Peter Todd?
Peter Todd is a Canadian cryptographer and software developer best known for his significant contributions to Bitcoin Core, the software that underpins the Bitcoin network. His involvement in the blockchain ecosystem dates back to Bitcoin's inception, where he interacted with Satoshi Nakamoto and other influential figures such as Hal Finney and Adam Back.
While Todd’s expertise in cryptography and decentralised technologies has fueled speculation about his potential identity as Satoshi Nakamoto, he has consistently dismissed these theories as unsubstantiated.
Key Claims from the HBO Documentary
In the documentary, filmmaker Cullen Hoback presents what he claims is pivotal evidence linking Todd to Nakamoto.
According to Hoback, a 2010 post on the Bitcointalk forum in which Todd responded to Nakamoto was allegedly a mistake. Hoback suggests that Todd inadvertently replied under his own account instead of posting as Satoshi.
HBO argues that this slip-up serves as a clue to Todd's identity. However, Todd has criticised this assertion, explaining that the post was merely a standard reply without hidden implications. He further contends that the timeline does not support the notion that he could be Nakamoto.
Skepticism in the Crypto Community
While the documentary highlights Todd's technical expertise and early involvement in bitcoin as potential indicators of his identity as Nakamoto, many within the crypto community remain sceptical. BitMEX Research described the documentary's evidence as “clearly ridiculous” in an 8 October post on X, asserting there is “zero reason” to believe the claims.
A significant point of contention is Todd’s timeline.
He has repeatedly stated that he did not start working on bitcoin until 2014, years after Nakamoto's last known communications. Although Todd has a background in cryptography, during Bitcoin's creation in 2008, he was focused on studying fine arts, which casts doubt on the documentary’s assertion that he gave Bitcoin credibility under the pseudonym Nakamoto.
Todd's Sarcastic "I Am Satoshi" Remark
The documentary also highlights Todd's sarcastic remark, in which he stated, “Oh, no, I am Satoshi. I’m Satoshi Nakamoto.” This comment, intended as humour, appears to have been misinterpreted by the filmmakers as serious evidence of his involvement.
In reality, Todd often jokes about the identity of Satoshi, highlighting the absurdity of such claims.
In a 2024 post, he stated, “Satoshi is the entire human race minus Craig Wright,” ridiculing Wright’s notorious assertion of being Nakamoto, which was dismissed by a court earlier this year.
Criticism of the HBO Documentary
Throughout Money Electric, Todd criticises the filmmakers for sensationalising the story.
He refers to their narrative as "crazy theories," arguing that it detracts from the true message of bitcoin. Todd maintains that the focus on speculative claims about Nakamoto's identity diverts attention from the ultimate goal—making bitcoin a global currency.
Additionally, the documentary discusses Todd’s introduction of the replace-by-fee (RBF) mechanism in 2014, suggesting it was part of Nakamoto’s original vision. However, this claim is historically inaccurate, as RBF was introduced long after Nakamoto's disappearance and was not a feature of bitcoin’s initial design.
Conclusion: Peter Todd Denies, The Mystery Continues
While HBO’s Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery attempts to link Peter Todd to Satoshi Nakamoto, the evidence presented remains thin and speculative. Todd has consistently denied these claims, and the timeline of his involvement in Bitcoin development does not support the idea that he could be behind its creation.
As with previous attempts to uncover Nakamoto's identity, the documentary adds another layer of intrigue without providing conclusive evidence. The true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains one of the greatest mysteries in the world of cryptocurrency.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Hits Record $1.1bn Inflows as Bitcoin Surges to New High
BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF saw record $1.1bn inflows as bitcoin climbed to new highs. Discover how surging demand in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs marked a historic day in crypto markets.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, saw unprecedented inflows of over $1bn to its spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) on 7 November, setting a record as bitcoin reached new all-time highs. This significant inflow followed two days of outflows totalling $113.3m, with IBIT alone accumulating $1.1bn, as reported by Farside data. BlackRock’s inflows represented nearly 82% of the $1.34bn total inflows across all U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs on the day.
Bitcoin Approaches $77,000 Amid Surging ETF Demand
On 7 November, Bitcoin climbed to $76,943, driving record inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund followed with $190.9m, while the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw inflows of $17.6m.
Market Sentiment Points to Further Inflows
Prominent figures in the crypto space, including trader The Bitcoin Therapist and financial analyst Rajat Soni, took to X, predicting more inflows to follow. “Expect another massive day tomorrow,” The Bitcoin Therapist wrote, while Soni urged followers to “buckle up” for further gains.
Unprecedented Inflows Backed by High Trading Volume
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed surprise at the record inflows, describing it as the largest one-day inflow for any Bitcoin ETF to date. “Told y’all it was prob gonna be big, altho even I am surprised it’s that big,” Balchunas commented on X.
Balchunas also noted that on 6 November, the IBIT ETF recorded nearly $1.1bn in trading volume within the first 20 minutes after the market opened, following Donald Trump’s re-election, reinforcing strong market momentum and bullish sentiment.
US Senator Proposes US Bitcoin Reserve Amid Trump Re-Election
Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a US Bitcoin reserve post-Trump re-election. Discover the reserve’s potential impacts on national debt, fiscal policy, and regulatory challenges.
US Senator Cynthia Lummis, often called the “Crypto Queen” on Capitol Hill, has reignited debate over digital assets by proposing a US bitcoin reserve.
Announced soon after Donald Trump’s re-election, the bold plan has the potential to reshape US fiscal strategy and has sparked questions about feasibility, national debt implications, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility.
From Gold Reserves to Bitcoin: A Strategic Shift for US Fiscal Stability?
Traditionally, the US has depended on its vast gold reserves to stabilise the dollar and underpin economic strength. As of September 2024, the US gold reserve equates to about 8,133 metric tons worth roughly $696bn.
This is significantly more than Japan’s 845 tons or China’s estimated 2,113 tons.
In contrast, a proposed $200bn bitcoin reserve would make up less than 2.5% of global gold reserves by value.
How Would a US Bitcoin Reserve Be Established?
Under Trump’s administration, an executive order could direct the US Treasury to allocate funds for the acquisition of bitcoins.
The administration could sidestep some regulatory challenges that typically face cryptocurrency by treating bitcoin as a strategic asset instead of currency. However, a more comprehensive bitcoin reserve strategy would likely require Congressional approval and multi-year budget allocation, facing resistance from legislators wary of bitcoin's volatility.
Operationally, the Treasury could manage the Bitcoin reserve similarly to its gold holdings, potentially diversifying acquisitions within the Federal Reserve System. However, a move of this scale would likely face stringent Congressional scrutiny due to bitcoin’s volatility and concerns about long-term stability.
Key Hurdles Facing a Bitcoin Reserve Proposal
With inflation concerns at the forefront of US policy debates, a national bitcoin reserve could meet resistance from both the public and policymakers.
Although a $200bn bitcoin fund would represent only a small fraction of the national debt currently exceeding $35.9tn, support for large-scale acquisitions would likely require bipartisan Congressional backing, making full implementation within two years improbable.
While the incoming administration assesses this proposal, the feasibility of establishing a bitcoin reserve will depend on aligning economic strategy with political support. For now, bitcoin’s path to becoming a US national reserve asset is hindered by economic and legislative challenges.
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