- Crypto Saving Expert's Newsletter
- Posts
- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 121
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 121
Good afternoon! Bitcoin is within touching distance of $100,000, but how will the second half of November treat the markets? Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Cardano, XRP, and HBAR as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
Sponsored by: Stonksy
Stonksy is a momentum identifier that aims to capture expansive market moves before they happen, by highlighting the start of potential price shifts. It can be used across all markets, including crypto, stocks, indices, commodities, and currencies.
Stonksy is growing in users week-on-week, proving why it aims to become one of the most-used indicators in the industry.
Find examples of Stonksy indications posted to the X every day: @stonksyio and learn how to use Stonksy and how it can benefit your trading system on the YouTube channel.
Bitcoin Waits For The $100k Stop
Bitcoin is flirting with another push higher after consolidating around the $90,000 level.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin is just over 9% away from the landmark $100,000 level.
From here, it could spring up again, making its way towards the elusive level. However, it could also continue consolidating in a range, providing a cool-off period after such an explosive move to the upside.
There also remains the possibility of a pullback, which could take bitcoin down towards $80,000.
XRP
XRP is one of the biggest gainers inside the top 100 over the last two weeks.
Stonksy caught the whole move on several time frames, with this particular image showing the 30-minute.
From the green background opening to now, the price is up almost 100%, with it spiking slightly higher.
ADA
Cardano is another big gainer of late, with this an example of the 2H chart.
Much like XRP, the green background remains open and the price is up over 86% from the start of the background colour change.
HBAR
HBAR has been on a rampage over the last few days, with the price entering a phase of parabolic uptrend.
As seen in the image, Stonksy caught the whole move on the 1H chart, with HBAR up over 215%, with the background yet to close.
These are examples of Stonksy’s capabilities on different time frames and how much the indicator can benefit a trading system.
Join Stonksy’s monthly plan for the cost of a cup of coffee per day: https://www.stonksy.io/signup
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index has reached its highest level in a while, scoring 90.
This translates to the Index being within Extreme Greed, something that may be of concern to some investors.
However, with bitcoin reaching high after high over the last two to three weeks, this is no surprise.
Important Dates
Friday 22 November, 14:45 UTC - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which measures the manufacturing industry. The data is a crucial measurement of the US economy as it is a significant portion of the revenue for large businesses.
The data is forecasted at 48.8, with the previous at 48.5.
Friday 22 November, 14:45 UTC - S&P Global Services PMI
S&P Global also releases a second piece of data, the services PMI data, which measures the service industry. The data is another factor alluding to the economy’s strength as it makes up much of the GDP alongside manufacturing.
The data is forecasted at 55.3, with the previous at 55.5.
Gainers
Losers
Are Memecoins Securities? Legal Questions Arise Amid Increased Scrutiny
Are memecoins like JENNER securities? With increasing scrutiny on celebrity-backed tokens, this article explores the legal questions surrounding memecoin regulations and SEC compliance.
A recent class-action lawsuit has raised important questions about whether memecoins could qualify as securities under US law. The case, which centres on the JENNER token and the alleged promotion of it as an unregistered security, highlights the growing regulatory attention on celebrity-backed cryptocurrencies and the criteria that may lead to their classification as securities.
The lawsuit claims that investors were encouraged to buy the JENNER token based on implied promises of profit, only to experience substantial losses when the token's value dropped. This situation has ignited a broader discussion about how US regulators assess whether a memecoin is a security and what factors could subject these tokens to securities regulations.
When Does a Memecoin Qualify as a Security?
In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) uses the Howey Test to determine whether an asset is a security. According to the Howey Test, an asset is considered a security if it meets these four criteria:
1. Investment of Money: There must be a financial investment involved.
2. Common Enterprise: The investment must be part of a common enterprise.
3. Expectation of Profit: Investors should expect to make a profit.
4. Profit Primarily from the Efforts of Others: Profit should rely significantly on the efforts of those managing or promoting the asset.
To be classified as a security, a memecoin must fulfil all four of these criteria. For JENNER, the plaintiffs argue that these standards are met, raising the question of whether other celebrity-backed tokens could face similar scrutiny.
Why Memecoins May Be Considered Securities
For JENNER and other memecoins, several factors could place them within the scope of securities regulations:
1. Promotions and Profit Expectations: When memecoins are marketed with promises or hints of rising value, investors may interpret this as an indication of profit potential. This case claims that investors bought JENNER under the impression that its price would increase, a typical indicator that the asset is viewed as an investment opportunity.
2. Centralized Control: Memecoins often depend on a centralised entity, such as a creator or promoter, to drive their popularity. In cases like JENNER, a single individual or team maintaining control could suggest that investors are relying on that group’s efforts for the coin’s success.
3. Speculative Nature: Unlike utility tokens, many memecoins are purchased mainly for speculative purposes. If the primary appeal of a token is the expectation of profit, regulators could view it as an investment, making it more likely to be classified as a security.
Potential Consequences for Memecoins Classified as Securities
If memecoins are determined to be securities, they must comply with SEC regulations, including registration requirements.
Failure to do so can lead to legal consequences, including fines and the potential for investor compensation. Such a ruling would send a powerful signal across the crypto landscape, emphasising that even popular tokens and those backed by high-profile individuals are subject to securities laws if they meet the necessary criteria.
The Impact of Celebrity Endorsements on Memecoin Regulation
Celebrity-backed memecoins, like JENNER, are increasingly drawing legal attention. This case could establish a precedent for how regulatory bodies approach tokens promoted by public figures. If the courts determine that JENNER qualifies as a security, it could influence how other celebrities approach crypto endorsements and drive additional scrutiny from regulators.
Conclusion
The legal case surrounding the JENNER token serves as a reminder of the fine line between promotion and compliance within the cryptocurrency world.
As regulators and investors seek clearer guidelines, understanding the criteria that may classify a memecoin as a security is essential. For token creators, promoters, and investors alike, the evolving regulatory landscape underscores the importance of transparency and adherence to securities laws in today’s rapidly shifting crypto market.
NYSE Arca Files to List Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund as Exchange-Traded Product
NYSE Arca files to list the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund as an exchange-traded product. Learn about its diversified crypto portfolio, ETP benefits, and market implications.
NYSE Arca has submitted a request to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list an exchange-traded product (ETP) managed by Bitwise Asset Management.
The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) provides diversified exposure to 10 leading cryptocurrencies.
Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund Overview
On 15 November, Bitwise announced the filing of a 19b-4 form with the SEC to list the BITW fund as an ETP. The fund’s portfolio includes allocations to top cryptocurrency assets such as:
- bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Solana (SOL)
- XRP (XRP)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Avalanche (AVAX)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
- Chainlink (LINK)
- Uniswap (UNI)
- Polkadot (DOT)
As of 31 October 2024, the fund’s holdings are heavily weighted toward Bitcoin (75.1%), Ether (16.5%), and Solana (4.3%), with smaller allocations to XRP (1.6%) and other assets, each making up less than 1%.
Why ETPs? Bitwise CEO Explains the Vision
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley highlighted the advantages of ETPs, describing them as the "most efficient, convenient, and useful vehicles for providing crypto exposure." The firm aims to convert its $1.3bn trust into an ETP structure, emphasising benefits such as:
- Regulatory Protections: ETPs are designed to offer investors additional safeguards.
- Shareholder Efficiency: The structure enables subscriptions and redemptions on an ongoing basis.
- Closer Alignment with NAV: Through an arbitrage mechanism, the fund can trade in secondary markets with valuations closely linked to its net asset value (NAV).
This filing underscores Bitwise's commitment to enhancing accessibility and transparency in crypto investing.
Broader Context: Growing Momentum for Crypto ETPs
This development follows NYSE Arca’s recent moves to list other crypto-based funds. On 29 October, the exchange filed to list the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund as an ETF. Grayscale’s portfolio includes BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and AVAX.
Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, commented that the filing “makes sense,” noting that the regulatory landscape could shift significantly under a Trump-appointed SEC chair. However, Balchunas tempered expectations, saying, “It’s far from a slam dunk,” and that the space requires further clarity.
What’s Next for Bitwise?
Bitwise’s pursuit of an ETP conversion aligns with broader industry efforts to bring institutional-grade products to the cryptocurrency market. If approved, the BITW fund could serve as a pivotal step toward mainstream adoption, offering investors regulated and diversified exposure to the evolving crypto ecosystem.
​​Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $500,000
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has predicted that bitcoin could reach $500,000 as it transitions to a mature asset. Discover how institutional adoption and central bank interest may fuel bitcoin’s rise.
With bitcoin setting new all-time highs following Donald Trump’s pro-crypto US presidential election win, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has outlined his case for bitcoin reaching $500,000, an ascension that he believes would mark the end of bitcoin’s “early stage.”
Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $90,000 mark yesterday and is trading around $89,500, up nearly 25% since Trump’s victory became apparent.
“The market may pull back — it’s come so far, so fast — but $100,000 feels like it could be right around the corner,” Hougan noted in a client letter on Tuesday. “It’s no longer the first inning. But until Bitcoin hits $500K, it’s still early.”
Why $500,000 Is Key for Bitcoin’s Market Maturity
While Hougan acknowledged Bitcoin’s volatility, he argues that $500,000 marks bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a mature, store-of-value comparable to gold.
He suggested that demand for assets like Bitcoin will grow as governments accumulate debt and devalue fiat currencies, boosting the appeal of store-of-value assets. Unlike gold, which central banks widely accept, Bitcoin has yet to reach similar acceptance.
“For Bitcoin to become as unremarkable as gold—widely held by central banks and institutions—it needs to hit a level of maturity it hasn’t yet achieved,” he emphasised.
Institutional Adoption and Central Bank Interest as Catalysts for Bitcoin’s Growth
While bitcoin has seen growing adoption among hedge funds and asset managers, it remains uncommon for pension funds, endowments, and government reserves to hold the asset. The US Department of Labor’s caution against including bitcoin in 401(k) portfolios and the excitement around hedge fund adoption highlight its current novelty in traditional finance.
The rationale behind Hougan’s $500,000 target relies on bitcoin’s potential to capture a significant portion of the $20tn store-of-value market, currently dominated by gold’s $18tn market cap. He believes bitcoin could reasonably achieve a 50% share of this market, requiring its price to reach around $500,000.
Central Banks and Bitcoin’s Path to $500,000
According to Hougan, greater central bank participation in bitcoin is crucial to reaching $500,000.
Currently, central banks hold around 20% of global gold reserves but less than 2% of bitcoin. “For Bitcoin to approach $500K, we need to see central banks increase their holdings,” he stated.
He highlighted U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis’s proposal to establish a national Bitcoin reserve as a potential catalyst for central bank adoption. “If we see the US government begin accumulating bitcoin, then $500K becomes a very realistic target,” Hougan added. Lummis has proposed an $80bn national bitcoin reserve as part of a broader financial strategy for the US.
Could Bitcoin Go Even Higher?
While Hougan sees $500,000 as a significant milestone, he doesn’t rule out the possibility of even higher valuations. “Could we see $1 million bitcoin? Higher? Absolutely,” he said. “But $500K feels like a good start.”
With Bitcoin’s price trajectory showing few signs of slowing and institutional interest rising, Hougan’s projection adds weight to the growing view of bitcoin as a core component of future financial systems. As bitcoin gains acceptance, $500,000 could be more than a target—it may be a critical step toward bitcoin’s full market maturity.
👉 If you're eager to connect with like-minded individuals and propel your crypto success to new heights, then CSE Plus+ is the community you've been searching for.
🏎️ In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies, networking with fellow enthusiasts and experts can be the key to unlocking valuable insights, innovative strategies, and profitable opportunities.
đź‘Ą Our exclusive Discord channel is where passionate crypto aficionados converge, sharing their knowledge, experiences, and market analyses.
🤝 Together, we're shaping the future of crypto, and by joining CSE Plus+, you'll be at the forefront of this exciting journey towards financial empowerment and crypto excellence.
🫵 Don’t miss out!
đź”— JOIN HERE
This Newsletter is strictly for informational purposes only; the content is generic and has not been tailored in any way. Crypto Saving Expert UAB (“CSE”) is not providing, and should not be interpreted as providing, any form of offer of any currency, security, financial instrument or digital asset, or investment advice, recommendations or strategy. The content of this Newsletter is not intended to replace your own research with regard to any assets, products or services, and any action taken on the basis of this material is entirely at your own risk. CSE neither accepts nor assumes any liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of, or in any way connected to, the Newsletter content. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets may be unregulated in your jurisdiction, any profits may be subject to tax and the value of any investment could fall.
If you click on a link within this Newsletter to go through to a provider, we may get paid. This usually only happens if you get a product/use a service from it. This is what helps fund CSE and keeps the majority of our content free to use. Two crucial things you should know about this, however: a) this never impacts our editorial recommendations, if something is included, it is because we independently rate it as the best; and b) you will always get as good a deal, or better, than if you went direct. For full details on how CSE is funded, please click here.
CSE collects, processes and stores certain data. Such data may be shared with CSE’s wholly owned subsidiary company, Crypto Saving Expert Limited. Please note that by submitting information about yourself to CSE you are consenting to such use. For full details on our collection, processing and storage of data, together with your rights in relation thereto, please consult our Privacy Statement here.