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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 123
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 123
Good morning! It has been a great start to the week for altcoins, with previously sleeping giants such as $XRP making moves that have shocked the community! Let's dive in for a closer look at what is going on behind the scenes with bitcoin and the overall Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, LTC, XRP, and SOL as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Stalls As Majors Accelerate
Bitcoin has failed to break above the key $100,000 level thus far. However, large-cap altcoins have begun to find momentum and are pushing upwards.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin has found a challenging diagonal resistance when attempting to push higher.
This has been a point where the price has met supply, leading to exhaustion in momentum.
However, bitcoin also has support at the highlighted grey box, a place where buyers are keeping the price afloat.
If bitcoin can break the diagonal, it could be the catalyst needed to finally interact with $100,000. Still, a break below support could result in a drop towards $90,000.
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Stonksy - XRP
Stonksy is still green on the 2H XRP chart, as it has been for the entire move up.
Stonksy’s background turned green in early November, catching the 378% move to the upside.
Stonksy also caught this trade on the 1H in intervals and on lower time frames.
Stonksy - LTC
Stonksy’s background turned green on LTC on Thursday, before the price witnessed a surge to the upside.
This is on the 1H chart, and the background remains open as LTC pushes higher and higher.
Stonksy also caught this move on lower time frames, providing vast opportunity to catch the move.
Stonksy - SOL
Stonksy also catches downside moves, making it superb for trading both sides of the market.
The indicator turned red on the 1H SOL chart late Saturday evening.
Solana then began to break to the downside on Monday, with Stonksy already positioned to take advantage of the weakness in the market, capturing the drop.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides at 76, still within the Extreme Greed section.
While bitcoin consolidates, altcoins are beginning to build a resurgence after suffering for months on end due to bitcoin’s strength in the market.
Unless a deep flush to the downside occurs, the Index will likely remain in this section for a sustained period.
Important Dates
Wednesday 4 December, 13:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets due to increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 150,000, with the previous data coming in at 233,000. Therefore, the ADP expects a slight increase in employment.
Wednesday 4 December, 15:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark.
The consensus is set at 55.6, with the previous data at 56.
Wednesday 4 December, 18:45 UTC - Jerome Powell Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.
Friday, 6 December, 13:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 195,000, with the previous data at 12,000.
Friday, 6 December, 15:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan releases the index, which is a survey depicting consumer confidence in the economy. The survey provides insight into consumers’ confidence to spend money within the US economy.
The Index’s score is set to come in at 73.3, with the previous data coming in at 71.8.
Gainers
Losers
Crypto Gains Driving Mortgage Surge in Low-Income Households, Treasury Report Reveals
The US Treasury has revealed how low-income households are using crypto gains for larger mortgages. Learn about the risks and opportunities tied to high-crypto exposure areas.
According to a report by US Treasury economists, low-income households are increasingly leveraging cryptocurrency profits to secure larger mortgages.
The study sheds light on how crypto investments are reshaping financial behaviours in economically disadvantaged communities.
Crypto Profits Enable Larger Down Payments
The report highlights how cryptocurrency gains are helping low-income households afford larger down payments, making them eligible for higher mortgage amounts.
“In low-income households, crypto sales may have supported access to larger mortgages through bigger down payments,” researchers stated in their 26 November findings.
Notably, in regions with higher exposure to cryptocurrency, the percentage of low-income households with mortgages surged by over 250%. During the same period, average mortgage balances increased by 150%, from $172,000 in 2020 to $443,000 in 2024.
Mortgage Growth in High-Crypto Zip Codes
The study identifies "high-crypto" zip codes as areas where over 6% of households reported cryptocurrency-related tax events. These areas saw the most significant increases in mortgage and auto loan originations, alongside rising loan balances.
However, households in these regions reported elevated mortgage debt-to-income ratios, raising concerns about financial stability.
“High crypto exposure may be associated with behaviour that could contribute to financial instability,” the report warns.
Financial Risks Loom Despite Low Delinquencies
Despite rising mortgage debt, delinquency rates among low-income households in high-crypto areas remain low, signalling no immediate distress. However, researchers caution that worsening economic conditions or a crypto market crash could lead to financial instability.
“Rising distress in this group could cause future financial stress, especially if exposure to these types of high-leverage, high-risk consumers is concentrated in systemically important institutions,” the report states.
Record US Household Debt Raises Red Flags
These findings emerge as US household debt hits a record $17.9tn in the third quarter, driven by increases in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and student loans, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
While crypto-driven mortgage growth has yet to trigger widespread delinquencies, researchers stress the need for vigilance, as the trend could amplify financial risks during economic downturns or significant crypto market volatility.
Key Takeaways
The Treasury report highlights the growing influence of cryptocurrency gains on homeownership and loan balances among low-income households. While these gains create opportunities, they also increase financial vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of monitoring debt and leverage levels, especially in high-crypto exposure areas.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Realise $2 Billion Profit, While Options Traders Look to $100k
Bitcoin long-term holders realised $2bn in profits as BTC nears $100K. Discover why many investors are holding for higher prices and what’s next for Bitcoin ETFs and institutional activity.
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) cashed in over $2bn in a single day during bitcoin’s recent surge near $100,000.
Despite the windfall, many investors are still holding out for higher prices.
Bitcoin Investors Split: Realised Profits vs. Holding for Higher Prices
Bitcoin's price rally near $100,000 unleashed significant unrealised profits, particularly for long-term holders. While 22 November marked a record $443m in realised profits, Glassnode data shows that many tenured holders remain steadfast.
Coins held for 6–12 months accounted for 35.3% of recent sell-side pressure, while older coins belonging to seasoned investors stayed largely untouched, suggesting a patient approach to higher price levels.
Institutional Activity and Bitcoin ETFs in Focus
The selloff may involve institutional investors who accumulated after Bitcoin ETF launches, aiming to capitalise on the market's next surge.
Meanwhile, the bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of over $550m in two days as BTC/USD retraced from $99,541 to $90,800.
Bitcoin’s volatility also impacted equity markets. MicroStrategy, the company with the largest bitcoin corporate treasury, saw its stock plummet 35% in a four-day losing streak, one of the worst in history.
Options Traders Bet on $100K+ Bitcoin Prices
Onchain data reveals a strong appetite for higher bitcoin prices among options traders. Nearly half are betting on six-figure levels by late 2024, with some predicting a surge to $150,000.
Data from Derive shows 41.3% of Bitcoin options are calls (bets on price increases), compared to 38.3% puts (bets on decreases). Analysts estimate a 45% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 and a 4% chance of hitting $150,000.
Outlook for Bitcoin: Consolidation or Corrections?
At the time of publication, bitcoin is trading at $93,500, down over 6% from its $99,541 peak. Projections for 2024 suggest bitcoin could trade between $81,493 and $115,579, with a slim 5% chance of extreme moves below $70,000 or above $137,645.
Conclusion: Bitcoin's Path to Six Figures
As bitcoin inches toward six-figure territory, the market remains divided. Long-term holders and institutional investors are signaling confidence, while options traders are betting heavily on further upside. Yet, caution persists due to potential short-term volatility.
Stonksy's Weekly Recap: Key Positions and Market Moves
Discover Stonksy's weekly crypto recap, highlighting key positions on BICO, NEAR, DOT, SAND, and XRP. Learn how momentum shifts and breakout strategies delivered gains across bullish trends and short-term volatility.
This week, Stonksy demonstrated sharp calls across various cryptocurrency pairs, delivering insights aligned with significant market trends. Below is a detailed recap of Stonksy’s highlighted positions and a breakdown of the price action observed in critical assets.
1. BICO/USDT (2-Hour Chart)
The week started with BICO/USDT, showcasing a consistent upward trajectory. The green background highlights bullish momentum, with a clear breakout above consolidation levels. The price steadily climbed, indicating strong buying interest.
BICO/USDT on the 2-hour showing Stonksy taking the trade.
Highlights:
●Early in the week, the red zone (bearish) swiftly transitioned into green (bullish) as momentum picked up.
● BICO held firm above support levels and recorded higher highs, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Stonksy’s Position: A successful long entry in the green phase, aligning with sustained upward momentum.
2. NEAR/USDT (2-Hour Chart)
NEAR/USDT displayed a strong rally, with sustained bullish momentum throughout the week. After a breakout early on, the price steadily climbed, with pullbacks offering re-entry opportunities.
NEAR/USDT on the 2 hour chart showing Stonksy taking the trade.
Highlights:
● NEAR moved into a bullish green zone mid-week, rallying from key support levels.
● Minimal downside risk as buyers consistently absorbed selling pressure, driving the price higher.
Stonksy’s Position: Long positions captured the rally, delivering solid returns during the steady upward trend.
3. DOT/USDT (30-Minute Chart)
Polkadot (DOT/USDT) experienced a volatile week, with sharp upward movements followed by pullbacks. The chart highlighted clear opportunities for swing trades within the bullish green phase.
DOT/USDT on the 30 minute chart showing Stonksy taking the trade.
Highlights:
● There was a notable rally from the red (bearish) zone into green, with DOT reaching a peak before retracing.
● The price action presented opportunities for both trend-following and range-based strategies.
Stonksy’s Position: Long positions were timed well with the bullish breakout, and trailing stops secured profits as DOT retraced toward the week’s end.
4. SAND/USDT (30-Minute Chart)
The SAND/USDT chart was one of the week’s standout movers, with a clear transition into bullish territory mid-week. The strong rally exhibited consistent momentum as SAND gained significant ground.
SAND/USDT on the 30 minute chart showing Stonksy taking the trade.
Highlights:
● The green background captured a sharp uptrend as SAND rallied from consolidation levels.
● The clean price action, with minimal retracements, provided excellent momentum-trading opportunities.
Stonksy’s Position: A well-timed long call capitalised on SAND’s impressive rally, with gains peaking toward the end of the week.
5. XRP/USDT (10-Minute Chart)
Ripple (XRP/USDT) saw significant action on shorter timeframes, with rapid swings offering scalping opportunities. The green background highlighted bullish phases, particularly during the sharp upward move early in the week.
XRP/USDT on the 10 minute chart showing Stonksy taking the trade.
Highlights:
● The chart displayed a clear breakout above resistance, with momentum carrying XRP higher before consolidation.
● Intraday traders benefited from quick price action as XRP retraced to support levels.
Stonksy’s Position: Scalping trades aligned with the bullish phases, taking advantage of XRP’s short-term momentum.
Weekly Insights
Across all charts, Stonksy effectively leveraged momentum shifts and clear entry signals within bullish trends. The highlighted positions focused on:
● Transition Zones: Recognizing when assets shifted from bearish (red) to bullish (green) zones.
● Momentum Breakouts: Capturing rallies following consolidation phases.
● Risk Management: Using pullbacks and trailing stops to lock in profits during retracements.
Overall Performance
This week, Stonksy showcased its ability to navigate both macro trends (e.g., NEAR and SAND’s rallies) and short-term volatility (e.g., XRP’s scalping opportunities). Each call was aligned with clear technical signals, reinforcing the importance of combining trend analysis with timely entries and exits.
Stay tuned for next week’s market insights as Stonksy highlights high-probability trading setups across the crypto market.
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