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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 128
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 128
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Good morning! Bitcoin is back over $100,000! Let’s take a deep dive into what’s happening behind the scenes with bitcoin and the broader Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Solana, SUI, and Dogecoin as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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History Repeating For Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has begun the new year strongly, demonstrating a similar reaction to what we saw in January 2021.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is experiencing a similar pattern to last cycle.
Following a breakout run in late 2020, bitcoin consolidated for a period of time before witnessing the final leg of the move.
The similarities between early 2021 and now are clear, suggesting that bitcoin could follow up its initial move over the last week with another explosive breakout.
If history rhymes, bitcoin could top in Q1.
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Solana
Solana wrestled back some of its bullish momentum, reclaiming $200 and pushing above $220.
Stonksy turned green on the 1-hour chart last week, capturing the full move and ending with over 10% gain from the open to the close of the move.
SUI
SUI recorded another all-time high after surging above $5 and entering price discovery again.
Stonksy caught this move perfectly, turning green around the $4.20 level and capturing roughly 30% to the upside.
Dogecoin
Dogecoin appears as though it could be coiling up for a second run, which could ignite another wave of memecoin attention.
The legacy memecoin is battling to overcome the $0.4 level, while Stonksy once again caught the upside pump.
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Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides at 78, within the Extreme Greed section.
Following bitcoin’s explosive start in 2025, investors gained more optimism about the market after the index shifted out of Greed into the upper tier.
If bitcoin remains on its run, the market could reach a euphoria stage in Q1.
Gainers
Losers
Solana Users Gear Up for Two Major Airdrops in January
Solana kicks off 2024 with two significant airdrops. Sonic and Jupiter are set to distribute hundreds of millions in tokens, rewarding active users and driving ecosystem growth. Learn how to qualify below.
The Solana ecosystem is kicking off the new year with two significant airdrops, distributing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of tokens to eligible users. These airdrops, from Sonic and Jupiter, highlight the growing momentum within the Solana network.
Jupiter’s $625m “JUPuary” Airdrop
Jupiter, a decentralised exchange (DEX) aggregator on Solana, is gearing up for its “JUPuary” airdrop, which will distribute 700m JUP tokens valued at $625m to users this January.
Airdrop Details:
The airdrop will reward 2.3m wallet addresses based on a tiered system that accounts for trading volume and interaction with Jupiter’s features.
Eligibility Tiers:
● Users with over $800 in trading volume will receive 50 JUP tokens.
● High-volume traders, with more than $14m in trading volume, will earn 20,000 JUP tokens.
● Additional rewards are available for users interacting with Jupiter’s Perps, DCA, or limit order features.
Sonic’s $168m Airdrop Scheduled for 7 January
Sonic, a Solana layer-2 gaming network, will airdrop 7% of its native SONIC token supply on 7 January. This distribution will see 168m SONIC tokens handed out to users.
● Token Supply Details:
Sonic has a total supply of 2.4bn SONIC tokens. While 15% of the total supply will be available for trading on the day of the airdrop, 8% is reserved for early supporters, and 7% will go directly to initial claimers.
● Eligibility Requirements:
To qualify for the airdrop, users had to onboard through TikTok, where Sonic built its SonicX game natively. This unique integration rewards active TikTok users who engage with the game.
● Background and Partnerships:
Sonic secured $12m in Series A funding in June 2024 and partnered with Solayer, a Solana staking protocol. By November, Sonic had over $50m worth of staked SOL in its delegation pool, further cementing its role in the Solana ecosystem.
Airdrop Momentum on Solana
The upcoming Sonic and Jupiter airdrops follow the recent Pudgy Penguins airdrop, which distributed over $1bn worth of PENGU tokens to Solana users, primarily benefiting Pudgy Penguin NFT holders.
What These Airdrops Mean for Solana
The airdrops underscore Solana’s growing ecosystem, encouraging user engagement and adoption. By distributing substantial token rewards, projects like Sonic and Jupiter aim to boost activity within the network and reward loyal users.
Bitcoin’s January Outlook: Trump Inauguration Rally and Fed Decision Could Shape Price Trends
Discover how Bitcoin’s price might react to Donald Trump’s inauguration and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in January 2025. Learn insights on potential rallies and pullbacks which may occur at the start of the year.
As January 2025 unfolds, bitcoin’s price trajectory is poised for significant developments.
Some analysts anticipate a Donald Trump-led Bitcoin rally before his inauguration on 20 January. However, this optimism could face challenges as the Federal Reserve announces its first interest rate decision later in the month.
Early January Optimism Followed by Mid-Month Pullback
According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, the cryptocurrency market could experience a strong start to the year. In a report published on 5 January, Thielen outlined a “positive start” in early January, driven by market enthusiasm. However, he forecasted a potential pullback just before the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on 15 January.
“A favorable inflation print could reignite optimism, fueling a rally into the Trump inauguration,” Thielen stated. If the CPI results align with market expectations, bitcoin could see renewed momentum.
Federal Reserve Decision: A Critical Turning Point
Despite this optimism, Thielen highlighted a significant risk: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on 29 January.
Historical data suggests that such announcements often weigh heavily on bitcoin’s price. CME Group’s FedWatch tool predicts a 90.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain its target rate between 425 and 450 basis points.
Past trends support this caution. Bitcoin dropped nearly 15% to $92,800 following the Federal Reserve’s December 2024 meeting, when it reduced its projected 2025 interest rate cuts from five to two. Thielen noted that while inflation could decrease this year, the Federal Reserve might take time to adjust its monetary policy.
Institutional Inflows: A Deciding Factor
Thielen also emphasised the importance of institutional investor activity in determining bitcoin’s trajectory. Indicators such as stablecoin minting and spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows will provide key market sentiment and institutional engagement signals.
By the end of January, Thielen expects bitcoin to trade within the $97,000 to $98,000 range, reflecting a modest yet optimistic outlook.
Diverging Opinions on Bitcoin’s Future Path
Other industry experts share mixed views on Bitcoin’s performance in 2025. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at crypto lending firm Ledn, projects a short-term dip to $89,000 before a rebound that could propel Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of Q1.
Looking further ahead, Glover predicts Bitcoin could climb to $160,000 by late 2025 or early 2026. However, this estimate is more conservative compared to predictions from VanEck and Bitwise, which place Bitcoin at $180,000 and $200,000, respectively.
Market Sentiment Remains Bullish
Despite short-term uncertainties, market sentiment appears strong.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges sentiment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, reached the “Extreme Greed” zone with a score of 76 out of 100 on 5 January, coinciding with bitcoin’s climb to $98,850. This marks a sharp improvement from late December 2024, when the index dipped to the “Greed” zone for 10 days.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
While optimism surrounds Trump’s inauguration, the Federal Reserve’s January decision remains a critical factor that could reshape Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Institutional activity and inflation trends will also be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin’s rally can sustain momentum through 2025.
Investors should stay vigilant, tracking key market events to navigate the evolving crypto landscape effectively.
Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance Spurs Optimism in Ripple and Beyond
Explore how Ripple and the broader crypto industry are responding to Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies, driving US expansion and market optimism ahead of his inauguration.
Ripple Labs is ramping up its US-based operations, with 75% of the company’s new job openings now in the United States.
The surge in domestic activity follows a marked increase in deals and partnerships since the November 2024 election, signalling growing confidence in a crypto-friendly environment under the incoming Trump administration.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted this shift in a 5 January X post, stating:
“Team Trump is already jumpstarting innovation and job growth in the US with Scott Bessent, David Sacks, Paul Atkins, and others at the helm — and they are not even in office yet! Say what you want, but the 'Trump effect' is already making crypto great again.”
The crypto industry is optimistic, as many anticipate a regulatory climate that fosters innovation and growth under Trump’s leadership.
Crypto Industry Prepares for Regulatory Shift
The anticipation surrounding Trump’s second term, which begins on 20 January, has sparked significant moves within the industry. Companies are positioning themselves to capitalise on the expected regulatory overhaul.
Ripple Leads the Charge
Ripple’s decision to focus heavily on U.S.-based hiring and partnerships underscores the industry’s belief in a more business-friendly environment. This proactive approach clearly signals Ripple’s confidence in the incoming administration’s policies.
Hive Digital Relocates to the US
Crypto mining firm Hive Digital recently announced plans to relocate its headquarters from Vancouver, Canada, to San Antonio, Texas. The 31 December statement credited the pro-Bitcoin stance of the incoming administration as a motivating factor behind the move.
Cathie Wood Forecasts Innovation Boom
Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, has projected a wave of corporate mergers and acquisitions over the next four years, citing expected deregulation as a catalyst. Wood reiterated her prediction that bitcoin will reach $1m by 2030, driven by its inherent scarcity and the anticipated pro-innovation policies of Trump’s presidency.
“The expected deregulation under Trump’s administration will create a more favorable environment for businesses to thrive,” Wood explained.
Crypto’s Path Forward in 2025
As the Trump administration prepares to take office, the crypto industry is preparing for a transformative year. From Ripple’s US expansion to bold moves by companies like Hive Digital, the stage is set for substantial growth and innovation.
While the full impact of Trump’s policies remains to be seen, the enthusiasm within the crypto community is undeniable. The ‘Trump effect’ is already reshaping the narrative, promising the sector a dynamic and prosperous future.
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