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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 129
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 129
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Good morning! Despite facing numerous challenges in the past week, bitcoin has maintained its value, buoyed by the news that President Trump is set to introduce crypto regulation relief on his first day back in office, offering a positive outlook for the market. However, altcoins are still feeling the pressure. Let’s take a deep dive into what’s happening behind the scenes with bitcoin and the broader Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Ethereum, and the DXY, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Holds Firm As Trump Readies For Action
Bitcoin is holding its position despite multiple obstacles being thrown at it over the past week, with the news that President Trump is preparing to sanction crypto regulation relief on his first day back possibly providing upside relief.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin went down and tested demand again in the region it has found selling pressure to be overcome by buying pressure.
Currently, bitcoin is trading within a range, but could head back towards the high after holding the low following a clear liquidation wick clearing out liquidity below and trapping short sellers.
A break above the high could signal new all-time highs.
On Monday, it was reported that President-elect Trump expected to issue executive orders related to crypto policies on his first day in office.
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Ethereum
Ethereum also came into a key zone as bitcoin tumbled down on Monday.
The price re-entered a previous consolidation zone and swept levels of interest.
Much like the rest of the market, ETH has bounced convincingly. From here, it must reclaim $3,323 to open the door to higher prices.
DXY
The dollar currency index (DXY) has been surging of late, recording four monthly green candles in a row thus far.
However, during Trump’s previous spell as President, the DXY topped out in January as he took office.
The dollar then weakened for the first two years as his policies took shape.
If history repeats, the DXY could form a double-top pattern before falling off.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index scores 63, dropping close to Neutral, but remaining within the Greed section.
It appears that confidence has lowered among investors despite bitcoin holding where it needed to.
Important Dates
Tuesday 14 January, 13:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity producers. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 3.7%, with the previous data at 3.4%.
Wednesday 15 January, 13:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.8%, with the previous data at 2.7%.
Thursday 16 January, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at 0.5%, with the previous figure at 0.7%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data is not forecasted, but the previous data came in at 0.4%.
Gainers
Losers
Donald Trump’s Return: A New Era for Cryptocurrency?
Donald Trump’s presidency could reshape the cryptocurrency landscape. Explore how executive orders, regulatory shifts, and campaign promises may impact the crypto sector.
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House on 20 January, his administration’s policies are poised to significantly impact the cryptocurrency industry. With many potential executive orders on the horizon, the crypto sector is bracing for changes that could either catalyse growth or introduce new challenges.
Executive Orders and Immediate Actions
Reports from The Washington Post indicate that Trump will likely prioritise executive actions, including cryptocurrency-related measures, upon taking office.
Among the anticipated orders is the reversal of policies requiring banks to classify digital assets as liabilities, which was a mandate introduced under the Biden administration’s SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB 121). Crypto advocates view this move as burdensome, but it could free financial institutions to engage more directly with the crypto market.
Another expected focus is addressing "crypto de-banking," a phenomenon critics have linked to "Operation ChokePoint 2.0," where regulators allegedly pressured banks to sever ties with the crypto sector. Sources suggest that the Trump administration is determined to dismantle these barriers, signalling a potentially more favourable regulatory environment for the industry.
The Campaign Promises
During his campaign, Trump made bold commitments to position the United States as a global leader in cryptocurrency. Addressing the bitcoin 2024 conference, he pledged to establish the country as a “crypto capital,” proposing initiatives such as creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and reducing regulatory scrutiny.
Adding to the momentum, crypto industry officials have reportedly urged Trump to issue crypto-focused executive orders within his first 100 days, with many anticipating actions as early as his first day in office.
Key Players in Trump’s Administration
Prominent figures like David Sack, Trump’s crypto and artificial intelligence czar, are expected to play pivotal roles. Sack’s recent engagement with tech executives highlights plans to revoke Biden-era AI policies and explore synergies between AI and blockchain technologies. Additionally, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, a known tech and crypto innovation advocate, has been instrumental in shaping the administration’s tech and defence leadership.
Opposition from the Hill
Not all lawmakers share Trump’s enthusiasm for crypto. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a staunch critic, has intensified her push for stricter regulation. In a recent open letter to Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent, Warren outlined concerns over the potential misuse of digital assets for money laundering, sanctions evasion, and financing threats to national security. She has called for expanding the Treasury’s authority under the Bank Secrecy Act and introducing secondary sanctions to curb illicit crypto activity.
Warren’s efforts are part of a broader campaign to subject cryptocurrency to existing anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) frameworks. While her proposals have faced criticism from crypto advocates, they underscore the contentious regulatory debates that could define the Trump administration’s approach to digital assets.
A Pivotal Moment for Crypto
As Trump’s inauguration approaches, the crypto industry stands at a crossroads. On one hand, the administration’s pro-crypto rhetoric offers hope for a more supportive regulatory landscape. Conversely, the challenges posed by opposing lawmakers like Senator Warren could temper expectations.
With hundreds of pro-crypto candidates elected to Congress, industry leaders believe the United States might see its most crypto-friendly government in history. However, balancing innovation with national security and financial stability will be critical. Trump’s presidency could mark a turning point for the industry—one that shapes its future trajectory on a global scale.
Finnish Police Seize $2.6m in Luxury Watches from HEX Founder Richard Heart
HEX founder Richard Schueler, wanted for tax evasion and assault, had $2.6m worth of luxury watches seized by Finnish authorities. Learn about the ongoing investigations and allegations.
Finnish police have confiscated approximately $2.6m worth of luxury watches belonging to Richard Schueler, also known as Richard Heart, the founder of cryptocurrency HEX. Schueler is currently wanted in Finland for alleged tax evasion and assault.
Authorities recovered 20 high-end watches, predominantly Rolexes, from a residence in Espoo, Finland, according to a report from the Finnish national broadcaster Yleisradio Oy (Yle) on 7 January.
Luxury Watches Valued at Millions
Based on receipts and expert appraisals, the seized watches were valued at $2.68m. Many of the timepieces were purchased in Finland, while others were acquired in the United States.
Inspector Harri Saaristola, leading the investigation, revealed that intelligence efforts led the police to locate the abandoned collection.
Schueler Wanted for Tax Evasion and Assault
Schueler has been on the run since 13 September 2023, when Finnish authorities remanded him in custody over allegations of tax fraud and assault.
● Tax Evasion: Schueler is accused of evading taxes between June 2020 and April 2024, with Finnish tax arrears estimated to be in the “hundreds of millions of euros.” His income in 2023 alone was estimated at €15.2m ($16.9m).
● Assault Allegations: He is also charged with physically assaulting a 16-year-old on Feb. 16 and 17, 2021, including dragging the victim by their hair, knocking them down, and assaulting them in a stairwell.
Interpol issued a “Red Notice” for Schueler on 22 December 2023, and he is listed among Europe’s most wanted fugitives. Despite this, his current whereabouts remain unknown.
Despite being on the run, Schueler remains active on social media. He continues to promote HEX on X (formerly Twitter) and upload content to his YouTube channel, seemingly unbothered by the international charges against him.
US SEC Charges Compound Legal Troubles
In addition to Finnish charges, Schueler faces a lawsuit from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In July 2023, the SEC accused him of issuing unregistered securities through HEX (HEX), PulseChain (PLS), and PulseX (PSLX), raising over $1bn.
The SEC also alleged that Schueler misused funds for personal purchases, including a 555-carat diamond, luxury vehicles, and the high-end watches now seized by Finnish authorities.
Conclusion
With millions in seized assets, pending tax evasion charges, and allegations of assault, Schueler’s legal troubles continue to mount. Finnish authorities and Interpol remain focused on locating the fugitive, while his controversial cryptocurrency ventures face growing scrutiny.
Bitcoin’s January Slumps: A Post-Halving Tradition?
Bitcoin’s correction in the first month of a post-halving year is a pattern familiar to seasoned traders. Historical trends suggest that these slumps may be precursors to significant rallies later in the year.
Bitcoin’s historical January form hints that it often goes through corrections after halving years. Could 2025 follow the trends of 2017 and 2021 by following up on a correction with a price pump?
Historical Trends: Post-Halving January Corrections
Bitcoin’s price action in the first month of a year following a halving event often raises eyebrows. According to analysts, significant corrections in January are not unusual and may set the stage for future rallies.
“Bitcoin dumping in January has historically been a common occurrence in post-halving years,” noted crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze to his 123,000 X followers on 12 January. “We all know what happened after the 2017 and 2021 dumps.”
Bitcoin’s Current January Decline
Bitcoin’s recent performance aligns with this historical pattern. The cryptocurrency has dropped 10% this month, sliding from its 7 January high of $102,300 to just below $92,000.
In comparison:
● January 2021: Bitcoin fell over 25%, dropping from $40,000 to $30,000 before rallying 130% to a new all-time high of $69,000 by November.
● January 2017: Bitcoin slumped 30%, falling from $1,130 to $784 before skyrocketing 2,400% to reach $20,000 by December.
Analysts Weigh In
Axel Bitblaze shared a chart highlighting these recurring January slumps in post-halving years, reinforcing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price behaviour.
Meanwhile, finance analysis account Stockmoney Lizards remarked, “Bitcoin has NOT reached the ultimate hype/pump phase. This cycle has more fuel in the coming 12 months.”
The Road Ahead: Potential Upside or Further Correction?
Looking ahead, analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s current dip could mirror past trends, leading to substantial gains later in the cycle:
● A rally similar to 2021’s 130% rise could push BTC to over $200,000 by the end of 2025.
● On the downside, a January correction like those in 2017 and 2021 could momentarily drop prices below $70,000.
Stockmoney Lizards highlighted factors that could influence this cycle, such as increased mass adoption, pro-crypto governments, and the introduction of ETFs. “With these developments, the hypothesis of a major rally remains strong,” they noted.
Conclusion: January Slumps Signal Opportunities
While Bitcoin’s January corrections in post-halving years may cause short-term unease, historical patterns suggest they are often the prelude to impressive gains. As traders navigate the current dip, the potential for a significant rally later in 2025 keeps optimism alive.
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