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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 133
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 133
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Good morning! This cycle is all about consolidation, bitcoin has spent 80% of the past year ranging. Right now, it's in its third-longest consolidation, but a breakout could come well before hitting previous 200+ day ranges. Let’s take a deep dive into what’s happening behind the scenes with bitcoin and the broader Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, consolidation phases, S&P 500 and Ethereum, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Stagnates As It Solidifies The Cycle Of Consolidation
Bitcoin is confirming that this cycle is largely made up of consolidation, with short bursts of expansion as it prolongs its fourth stint.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is wedged between two key low time frame levels as the price consolidates.
There is clear support and resistance within this zone, with the price respecting both levels when it comes into contact with them.
However, bitcoin is pushing towards resistance, with an objective of closing a daily candle above $101,322 upon a breakout.
Consolidation Phases
This cycle will be known as the one of consolidation.
Roughly one-fifth of the past year has been spent in a trend, with the remaining 80% spent in consolidation on bitcoin.
Currently, this is bitcoin’s third-longest consolidation this cycle.
Still, bitcoin could break to the upside long before it reaches the length of the two 200+ day ranges.
Ethereum
Ethereum failed to close the weekly candle above the key level.
This means that ETH is back inside the range it traded within previously. From here, if ETH can get back above it, it will open the door for the price to trade towards $3,000.
If the price pushes down again, it has the range low level that it must hold at all costs.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is staying resilient in its task to push to new all-time highs.
Recently, it has sold off aggressively when it has climbed back towards the level.
If the price can make another attempt at breaking through supply, the fourth attempt may see it become successful, providing another stretch of bullish price action which may give bitcoin room to run.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides in neutral and scores 47.
This demonstrates the tenderness of the crypto market currently. Despite bitcoin being just over 10% away from its all-time high, sentiment is very low.
To raise spirits, bitcoin likely needs to climb towards >$102,000.
Important Dates
Wednesday 12 February, 13:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.9%, with the previous data the same.
Tuesday 13 February, 13:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity producers. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 3.3%, with the previous data at 3.5%.
Friday 14 February, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at -0.1%, with the previous figure at 0.4%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data is not forecasted, but the previous data came in at 0.7%.
Gainers
Losers
Crypto Market May Take Months to Recover After Record Liquidation Event
The crypto market may take until April to recover from Trump's tariff-induced liquidations. Analysts warn patience is needed as historical trends suggest a slow rebound.
Leading analysts say the cryptocurrency market may take up to two months to fully recover after US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats triggered a historic liquidation event.
Market Recovery Could Extend Into April
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland warned traders to temper their expectations following the recent crash.
“You likely won’t see those December highs on most alts for a minimum of 2 months, if not longer, so keep expectations tempered and just expect it to take time,” Hyland stated in a 4 February X post.
The Largest Crypto Liquidation Event in History
Hyland’s concerns stem from the fact that 3 February marked the largest liquidation event in crypto history, with over $2.24bn liquidated from the market within 24 hours. Some industry experts believe the actual figure could be significantly higher.
Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou suggested that the total liquidation was closer to $8bn to $10bn.
The turmoil followed escalating fears of a trade war caused by Trump’s 25% tariff imposition on Canada, Mexico, and China. However, after negotiations, Trump later paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico—yet the crypto market remained volatile.
Bitcoin Struggles to Hold Key Levels
On 3 February, bitcoin (BTC) fell to $92,584, dipping below the crucial $100,000 psychological level for the first time since 27 January.
While BTC briefly rebounded above $102,000 on 4 February, it quickly retraced and currently trades at $97,570, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Hyland interpreted this as a signal that the “low is in” but cautioned that historical market disruptions took months to recover fully.
Crypto Market Recovery: Lessons from 2020 and 2022
Hyland pointed out that similar black swan events in the past have required months for full recovery:
● 2020 COVID-19 Crash: On March 12–13, Bitcoin lost 47% of its intraday value, falling below $4,000. It took five months for BTC to climb above $11,000 in August.
● 2022 Terra and FTX Collapses: The collapse of the Terra blockchain (May 2022) and FTX’s bankruptcy (November 2022) triggered prolonged market downturns that required months to stabilise.
Given these precedents, Hyland said expecting a “straight recovery” in days is unrealistic.
“Even a V-shape recovery like 2020 took weeks, with many dips on the way back up,” he explained.
What’s Next for Crypto?
As Bitcoin and the broader crypto market attempt to find stability, traders are advised to prepare for a gradual recovery rather than an immediate bounce.
With macroeconomic uncertainties still looming and investor sentiment shifting, April may be the earliest timeframe for a full market reset.
Stay updated on the latest crypto market trends and recovery insights.
Why Do Blockchains Go Down? Ripple’s XRP Ledger Outage Sparks Debate
Blockchains can experience outages, and Ripple’s XRP Ledger network halt highlights key vulnerabilities. Discover why blockchains can go down and what it means for decentralisation.
Ripple’s XRP Ledger (XRPL) has recovered after a 64-minute network halt on 4 February at block height 93927174, which froze activity and prevented validations from being published. The incident has reignited discussions about blockchain stability and decentralisation.
What Caused the XRP Ledger Outage?
Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz explained in a 4 February X post that the issue stemmed from validations not being published, causing the network to lose consensus. While consensus was running, the lack of validation updates led to nodes drifting apart.
Validator operators had to manually intervene to reset the network and establish a “sane starting point” to resume coordinated ledger activity. Schwartz emphasised that this was only a preliminary assessment and that a deeper investigation was underway.
How Many Transactions Were Affected?
According to XRPSCAN data, XRPL processes around two million transactions daily, from approximately 30,000 to 60,000 unique senders. The outage lasted just over an hour, and an estimated 88,000 transactions may have been delayed as a result.
RippleX confirmed that no customer funds were at risk during the incident, reassuring users that the ledger's integrity remained intact.
Centralisation Concerns Resurface
The outage has revived concerns about XRP Ledger’s centralisation. Daniel Keller, CTO of XRPL node operator Eminence, noted that all 35 validators returned to full functionality simultaneously, sparking debate over how decentralised the network truly is.
Unlike Ethereum, which boasts over 1m active validators, XRP Ledger operates with a significantly smaller validator set. Critics argue this makes it more susceptible to coordination issues, while supporters contend it enhances efficiency and scalability.
Why Do Blockchains Experience Downtime?
While blockchain technology is often praised for decentralisation and resilience, network failures do occur. Some common reasons include:
● Consensus Failures: If validators or nodes fail to agree, transactions may halt.
● Software Bugs: Unexpected coding errors can disrupt blockchain operations.
● Centralisation Risks: A small number of validators controlling the network can make coordination failures more impactful.
● High Network Congestion: Overloaded networks may struggle to process transactions efficiently.
Historical Blockchain Outages
Ripple’s recent issue isn’t the first significant blockchain outage. Other notable incidents include:
● Solana (2022-2023): Multiple outages due to spam transactions and validator issues.
● Ethereum (2016): A fork following The DAO hack led to network instability.
● bitcoin (2013): A software bug created a chain split, temporarily disrupting transactions.
XRP Price Reacts Amid Market Volatility
XRP briefly dropped to $2.45 during the outage before rebounding 3.2% to $2.53, according to CoinGecko. The token has surged 396% since 5 November, primarily fueled by optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse continues pushing for XRP’s inclusion as a US reserve asset, with Trump’s crypto czar David Sacks reportedly exploring the proposal.
What’s Next for Blockchain Reliability?
As blockchain adoption grows, ensuring network resilience and decentralisation will remain critical. While XRP Ledger has restored full functionality, the incident serves as a reminder that even the most established blockchains are not immune to technical failures.
The debate over centralisation, validator coordination, and blockchain uptime will likely continue as the industry evolves.
Stay tuned for more updates on blockchain technology, decentralisation, and market trends.
US States Move Toward Bitcoin Reserves: Utah, Missouri, and More Lead the Charge
Utah, Missouri, and other US states are advancing legislation establishing bitcoin reserves. Could this be the start of a broader trend in state-level bitcoin adoption? Here’s what you need to know.
Utah is on the verge of becoming the first US state to establish a bitcoin reserve, following the approval of a strategic bitcoin reserve bill in the state’s House. The bill, HB230, has now been moved to the Senate for final approval.
“The ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ bill has officially passed the House in the state of Utah,” announced Dennis Porter, founder and CEO of Satoshi Action Fund, on 6 February.
The Utah House Economic Development Committee voted 8-1 in favour of the Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments bill on 28 January. The bill proposed by Representative Jordan Teuscher on 21 January would authorise the state treasurer to allocate up to 5% of public funds toward “qualifying digital assets” like bitcoin, high-cap crypto assets, and stablecoins.
“We firmly believe that Utah will be the very first state to introduce this legislation,” Porter emphasised.
The bill must pass a Senate vote before heading to the governor’s desk for approval.
Bitcoin Reserves Gain Traction Across the US
Utah isn’t the only state moving in this direction. Arizona has also made significant strides, with its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB1025), co-sponsored by Senator Wendy Rogers and Representative Jeff Weninger, passing the Senate Finance Committee on 27 January. The bill is now pending a House vote.
Meanwhile, New Mexico has introduced a similar proposal. Senator Ant Thornton put forth the state’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB57) on 4 February, advocating for a 5% allocation of public funds into bitcoin.
However, not all states are embracing the move toward bitcoin reserves. North Dakota recently rejected House Bill 1184, which would have permitted state investment in crypto assets and precious metals. The bill was struck down in a 32-57 vote on 31 January.
According to Bitcoin Reserve Monitor, 14 US states have introduced bills allowing their treasuries to purchase crypto assets.
Missouri Joins the Movement with a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund Proposal
Missouri Representative Ben Keathley is pushing the state to establish its own bitcoin reserve. On 6 February, Keathley filed HB1217, allowing Missouri to diversify its state investment portfolio with bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency inflation.
If passed, HB1217 would grant the Missouri state treasurer the authority to buy, invest in, and hold bitcoin. The bill also proposes creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund that could receive bitcoin through gifts and donations from both government entities and Missouri residents.
In addition, the legislation would require all government entities in Missouri to accept cryptocurrency for state-approved uses, such as taxes, fees, and fines. However, transaction fees would be the responsibility of payees.
Keathley’s bill also outlines a long-term holding strategy, requiring bitcoin collected by the state to be held for at least five years before being liquidated.
The Growing Trend of State Bitcoin Reserves
Missouri’s proposal follows the lead of Utah, whose bill recently passed the House and is now set for a Senate vote. Utah’s HB230, introduced on 21 January, aims to authorise the state treasurer to allocate 5% of certain public funds into bitcoin and other high-cap crypto assets.
As of Feb. 7, 17 out of 50 US states are actively discussing bitcoin strategic reserves, according to data from bitcoinlaws.io.
Utah remains the frontrunner, just two steps away from enacting its bill. Other states considering similar legislation include Arizona, Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wyoming, and South Dakota.
With more states joining the movement, the push for bitcoin adoption at the state level is gaining momentum. Whether these initiatives will pave the way for broader state and federal adoption remains to be seen. Still, they mark a significant shift in how US states perceive bitcoin’s role in financial strategy and investment.
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