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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 136
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 136
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Good morning! The second weekend of March was filled with major events that shaped the direction of the crypto market — from the much-anticipated White House Crypto Summit to Bitcoin’s largest weekly red candle close in history. Let’s take a deep dive into what’s happening behind the scenes with bitcoin and the broader Web3 market. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Tests Its Resolve
Bitcoin is testing its demand as it weighs up bouncing towards a retest of the range or a drop into a key retest area.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin closed the rest of the downside CME gap yesterday after it cascaded lower as the stock market crash fueled the drop.
Bitcoin has since bounced after also sweeping the February low and could move to close the open upside gap.
Still, the primary objective is for the price to reclaim the range to provide a more positive outlook.
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin has dropped 30% from its all-time high on the weekly chart and entered the last area of interest before a potential drop into the low $70,000s.
Using Fibonacci, we can see that a move back into the 0.5 would take it directly into the range low retest, while a move into the golden pocket would see it firmly move above $100,000 again.
Ethereum
Ethereum is similar to SOL in that it has completely lost a key support level.
The $2,100 level is a vital high time frame level and ETH sliced through it for a daily close on Monday.
Following this, ETH retested $1,700 and has thus far held up well.
If bitcoin provides relief to the upside, it could allow SOL and ETH to recapture their key levels.
Solana
Solana lost $125 for Monday’s daily close, something it has not done during its time trading in the macro range.
SOL must reclaim it on the daily or it could drop down towards $100 before a potential flush into $80.
However, reclaiming the key support level will provide a much better outlook.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped into Fear and resides at 24.
The market is rife with fear and uncertainty as it remains unclear what bitcoin’s next direction will be.
Important Dates
Wednesday 12 March, 12:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.9%, with the previous data at 3%.
Thursday 13 March, 12:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity producers. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 3.6%, with the previous data the same.
Gainers
Losers
US Crypto Reserve Update: What Will Trump Put in it?
Bitwise CIO predicts the US crypto reserve will be “nearly entirely bitcoin,” despite initial altcoin inclusions. What is a strategic reserve, and how will this impact crypto markets?
The US crypto strategic reserve continues to be a hot topic, with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicting that it will eventually consist almost entirely of bitcoin—despite President Donald Trump’s initial inclusion of altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Cardano.
Hougan argues that market participants misunderstood the announcement, and once the dust settles, bitcoin will dominate the reserve. Meanwhile, concerns are growing over the inclusion of speculative assets, with many in the industry questioning the reasoning behind Trump’s selections.
Here’s what we know so far and what the crypto reserve could mean for the future of digital assets.
What Is a Strategic Reserve?
A strategic reserve is a government-held stockpile of essential assets, typically used to safeguard against economic or political instability.
Historical Examples:
● Gold Reserves: Countries hold gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
● Oil Reserves: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) holds millions of barrels of crude oil to stabilise fuel markets during crises.
A Crypto Reserve Would Serve a Similar Purpose:
● Preserving Economic Sovereignty: Holding bitcoin and digital assets could protect against inflation and financial instability.
● Strengthening National Security: A crypto reserve could hedge against economic warfare and foreign-controlled financial systems.
● Positioning the US as a Leader in Digital Finance: By stockpiling Bitcoin, the US signals that crypto is a core part of its economic future.
Unlike oil or gold, crypto reserves could be used more flexibly, allowing governments to leverage blockchain-based financial systems and maintain global competitiveness.
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins – What Will the US Reserve Hold?
Trump’s Initial Crypto Reserve Announcement (2 March):
● Solana (SOL), XRP, and Cardano (ADA) were unexpectedly included.
● Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) were later described as “the heart” of the reserve.
Matt Hougan’s Prediction:
“After the dust settles, I suspect the final reserve will be nearly entirely Bitcoin, and it will be larger than people think.”
Industry Reactions:
Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, believes bitcoin should be the sole asset in the reserve, calling it “a successor to gold.”
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says that including smaller assets like Cardano feels more political than strategic.
Market Impact:
● Bitcoin initially surged, but later dropped below $83k before rebounding above $90k.
● ADA skyrocketed 76% before crashing 30%, reflecting the volatility tied to policy-driven speculation.
Many analysts believe that Trump’s initial move to include multiple cryptocurrencies may be revised after discussions at the upcoming White House Crypto Summit on 7 March.
The White House Crypto Summit – What to Expect
Date: 7 March
Purpose: Discuss the future of crypto regulation, stablecoins, and the US crypto reserve.
Who’s Attending?
● Industry Leaders: Executives from Coinbase, Paradigm, Andreessen Horowitz, and Consensys.
● Government Officials: Senator Tom Emmer and Representative Bryan Steil recently hosted a “Crypto Power Lunch” with key policymakers.
Not Invited? Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson Speaks Out
Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, revealed that he was not consulted about ADA’s inclusion in the reserve.
Hoskinson’s Reaction (5 March):
“We knew nothing about ADA being selected for the reserve. It was news to me. If you believe for a moment that your cryptocurrency will succeed because someone went to a ‘vanity fair,’ you’re a fool.”
What This Means:
● The selection process for the reserve remains unclear, and further changes could happen after the summit.
● Cardano’s dramatic price movement shows the risks of speculative policy-driven crypto investments.
Will Other Countries Follow? The Global Impact of a US Crypto Reserve
Analysts believe other nations will follow suit if the US fully embraces a crypto reserve.
Matt Hougan’s Take:
“If the US makes a crypto reserve, it’s more likely that other countries will want their own slice of Bitcoin.”
Possible Global Reactions:
Pro-Crypto Nations (El Salvador, UAE, Singapore)
● Could expand national Bitcoin holdings in response.
Major Economies (China, EU, UK)
● May consider regulatory frameworks to compete with the US in digital finance.
Traditional Finance Institutions
● Wall Street and central banks will face pressure to incorporate Bitcoin into their long-term economic models.
The Future of the US Crypto Reserve – What Happens Next?
Key Dates to Watch:
● March 7: White House Crypto Summit discussions.
● Q2 2024: More clarity on reserve composition and policy framework.
● 2025: Potential implementation of a full-scale reserve strategy.
Key Predictions:
● Bitcoin will likely dominate the reserve, despite the early inclusion of altcoins.
● The US won’t sell its crypto holdings, treating them like gold reserves.
● Other countries may follow suit, accelerating global Bitcoin adoption.
Key Takeaways from the US Crypto Reserve Debate
● Bitcoin is expected to be the dominant asset in the reserve, despite Trump’s initial inclusion of multiple cryptos.
● The White House Crypto Summit (7 March) could bring key changes to the reserve’s composition.
● Cardano’s inclusion remains controversial, and even its founder wasn’t aware of its selection.
● If the US moves forward with a strategic Bitcoin reserve, other nations may follow.
Is This the Start of a Global Bitcoin Standard?
As the US government navigates its crypto strategy, many believe a national Bitcoin reserve could be the first step toward global adoption.
Bybit Hack Update: $280m Laundered, But $1.07bn Remains Traceable
Bybit CEO Ben Zhou confirms that $280m of the stolen $1.4bn has been laundered, but $1.07bn remains trackable. Investigators race against time to freeze more funds before hackers cash out.
The Bybit hack saga continues, with CEO Ben Zhou revealing that the attackers successfully laundered $280m of the stolen $1.4bn has been successfully laundered by the attackers, making it nearly impossible to recover. However, 77% of the stolen funds, approximately $1.07bn, are still traceable, giving investigators hope for further recovery.
Zhou’s 4 March update provided fresh insights into the ongoing hunt for stolen crypto assets as security firms and law enforcement agencies race against time to freeze funds before hackers cash out.
Bybit Hack Breakdown: $1.4bn in Stolen Crypto
Bybit’s latest tracking data (4 March):
● 77% ($1.07bn) of stolen funds remain trackable.
● 20% ($280m) has “gone dark”, laundered through mixing services.
● 3% ($42m) has been frozen by investigators.
Ben Zhou on the Hack:
“Total hacked funds of USD 1.4bn (500K ETH), 77% are still traceable, 20% has gone dark, 3% have been frozen.”
The 20% that has “gone dark” has likely been moved through laundering techniques such as coin mixing, privacy wallets, or on-chain obfuscation tools, making it nearly impossible to track.
Hackers Convert $1bn to Bitcoin & Spread Across 6,954 Wallets
Investigators discovered that hackers converted approximately $1bn worth of ETH into bitcoin (BTC) to complicate tracking efforts further.
Tracking the stolen funds:
● 417,348 ETH converted to Bitcoin.
● BTC spread across 6,954 wallets.
● Each wallet averages 1.71 BTC, making fund consolidation difficult.
Why This Matters:
By fragmenting stolen assets across thousands of wallets, hackers can cash out in small amounts across different exchanges and OTC (over-the-counter) desks, avoiding detection.
Bybit Hackers Attempt to Cash Out Through THORChain, OKX Proxy
According to Zhou, hackers are actively trying to move stolen funds through decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and proxy services, making it harder to freeze assets.
Platforms Used for Laundering:
● THORChain → Used to swap ETH & BTC.
● ExCH → Another laundering hub.
● OKX Web3 Proxy → A tool for fund movement.
What’s Next?
● Investigators have a small window of 1-2 weeks to freeze additional funds before hackers offload them through P2P and OTC transactions.
● $65m worth of ETH is recoverable, but Bybit requires cooperation from OKX Wallet to secure the assets.
11,000 Wallets Linked to Bybit Hackers – Bounty Hunters Join the Fight
Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic has linked over 11,000 crypto wallets to the Bybit hackers.
Key Developments:
Bybit partnered with Web3 security firm ZeroShadow to trace and freeze stolen funds.
● $2.1m in bounties paid to 11 independent investigators who helped recover lost assets.
● Hackers remain active, attempting to move funds daily.
Why This Matters:
The fact that only $42m has been frozen highlights the sheer complexity of recovering stolen funds once they move through decentralized and obfuscation techniques.
Key Takeaways from the Bybit Hack Update
● $280m of the stolen $1.4bn has been laundered, making it unrecoverable.
● $1.07bn remains trackable, but investigators have only frozen $42m so far.
● Hackers converted $1bn of stolen ETH into BTC, spreading it across 6,954 wallets.
● THORChain, OKX Web3 Proxy, and other DEXs are being used to move funds.
● Bybit is working with Web3 security firms & paying bounties to track stolen funds.
What’s Next? Will More Funds Be Frozen or Will Hackers Escape?
With a crucial 1-2 week window left, investigators are working around the clock to freeze as much of the stolen funds as possible before hackers cash out.
What Happened This Weekend in Crypto?
The second weekend of March was packed with significant events that shaped the crypto market’s trajectory—from the highly anticipated White House Crypto Summit to bitcoin’s worst-ever weekly red candle close.
While some saw the crypto summit as historic, others viewed it as underwhelming. Meanwhile, bitcoin plunged 14% in just a week, wiping out recent gains and sparking fears of a deeper correction.
White House Crypto Summit – Historic or Underwhelming?
March 7: The first-ever White House Crypto Summit occurred, marking a drastic shift in US crypto policy under the Trump administration.
Key Takeaways from the Summit:
● Industry leaders met with government officials to discuss crypto regulation, stablecoins, and the newly created Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
● Crypto community reactions were mixed, with some calling it a “historic moment” and others labelling it a “rent-seeking lobbyist gathering.”
● Bitcoin’s price dropped ~7.3% after the event in a classic sell-the-news reaction.
Kyle Samani (Multicoin Capital):
“A historic moment for the cryptocurrency industry.”
Justin Bechler (Bitcoin Maximalist):
“The White House crypto summit is a gathering of rent-seeking lobbyists pushing state-approved surveillance tokens.”
Market Reaction:
● Bitcoin ETFs saw $370m in outflows post-summit.
● Many traders now expect BTC to crash to $70k before reclaiming $100k later this year.
Was the Summit a Net Positive for Crypto?
While some saw it as a turning point for mainstream crypto adoption, others criticised it for failing to deliver immediate policy clarity or firm commitments to bitcoin accumulation.
Bitcoin Faces Sell-Off After Strategic Reserve Announcement
Following the White House summit, bitcoin took a sharp hit, triggered by Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order.
Key Details of the Executive Order (7 March):
● The US will only acquire additional BTC through asset forfeiture.
● No plans for direct government purchases of bitcoin.
● The reserve will be a “budget-neutral” strategy with no additional debt or taxpayer burden.
Market’s Disappointment:
● Bitcoin maximalists expected active BTC acquisitions, but the government will only hold confiscated Bitcoin.
● Bitcoin ETFs saw $370m in outflows as traders sold the news.
David Sacks (White House Crypto Czar):
“Premature sales of Bitcoin have already cost US taxpayers $17bn in lost value. Now, the government will have a strategy to maximise the value of its holdings.”
Bitcoin’s Reaction:
● BTC dropped below $83k following the news.
● The expected “bullish reserve news” turned into a sell-off event.
What’s Next?
● Many analysts expect Bitcoin to range between $85k and $95k for 6–12 weeks.
● Others fear BTC could test $78k or even $70k before rebounding.
Bitcoin’s Global Adoption Remains Low but Growing
While Bitcoin remains a dominant global asset, new research highlights that BTC adoption is still in its early stages.
Key BTC Adoption Stats:
● Only 4% of the global population owns Bitcoin.
● The US leads in adoption, with ~14% of citizens owning BTC.
● Africa has the lowest BTC adoption rate (~1.6%).
Bitcoin’s Total Adoption Potential:
● BTC has only achieved 3% of its maximum adoption potential.
● Institutional BTC allocation is still far below traditional asset classes.
River Financial’s Take:
“Bitcoin is still in the early stages of global adoption. It has only reached 3% of its total addressable market.”
What’s Holding BTC Adoption Back?
● Financial and technical illiteracy about bitcoin.
● High volatility discouraging real-world use.
● The dominance of stablecoins in developing nations.
Despite these challenges, BTC’s adoption continues to grow—especially as institutions and governments start to take it seriously.
Bitcoin Closes Its Largest Red Candle in History
Bitcoin’s Weekly Performance (March 4–10):
● BTC fell 14% in a week, making it the worst weekly red candle in Bitcoin’s history.
● Bitcoin dropped below $80k for the first time since February.
● Traders now eye $77k–$78k as a key support level.
Kevin Svenson (Analyst):
“Bitcoin is back in the critical zone of the weekly parabolic trend. This is BTC’s last chance to maintain an exponential higher low.”
Key Warning Signs:
● Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA) sits at $75,560—a key level to watch.
● If BTC fails to hold $78k, it could trigger a deeper correction toward $70k.
Contrarian Views – Are Whales Buying the Dip?
Santiment Data:
“Bitcoin whales and sharks (wallets holding 10+ BTC) accumulated nearly 5,000 BTC this week.”
Despite the bearish sentiment, large investors are quietly accumulating BTC, which could indicate a potential rebound later this month.
What’s Next for Bitcoin This Week?
Key Events to Watch (March 11–15):
● 12 March: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Report.
● 13 March: Producer Price Index (PPI) Data.
● 14 March: Jobless Claims Data.
Why This Matters:
● Higher-than-expected inflation could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, impacting Bitcoin’s momentum.
● Market sentiment remains in “Extreme Fear”, suggesting further volatility.
Bullish Case for Bitcoin:
● If BTC holds $78k support, a bounce back above $85k is possible.
● Long-term holders continue to accumulate, indicating strong confidence in BTC’s future.
Bearish Case for Bitcoin:
● If BTC breaks below $77k, a drop toward $70k–$75k is likely.
● Macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could slow recovery.
Key Takeaways – The Weekend in Crypto
● White House Crypto Summit sparked mixed reactions—some called it historic, while others were disappointed.
● Bitcoin’s Strategic Reserve plan led to a “sell-the-news” event, causing BTC to drop below $83k.
● Bitcoin recorded its worst-ever weekly red candle, with a 14% loss in seven days.
● Long-term adoption is still early, with Bitcoin at only 3% of its full potential market.
● BTC whales have started accumulating again, hinting at a potential price rebound.
Will Bitcoin Recover or Drop Further?
The crypto market remains on edge, with key macroeconomic events looming this week. While some expect BTC to hold $78k and rebound, others predict a deeper correction before the next bull run.
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