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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 140
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 140
Good morning! Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, will it push toward $100K or break to new local lows as Trump’s tariffs take effect? With market volatility rising, all eyes are on BTC’s next move!
Let’s take a deep dive into what’s happening behind the scenes with bitcoin, macro markets, and key economic events this week. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, the S&P 500 and Gold as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Decision Time For Bitcoin
Bitcoin is at a point where it could break to new local lows, or begin a pushback towards $100,000 as Trump’s tariffs come into force.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell out of its trading channel, where it had formed higher highs and higher lows on its run-up to just below $89,000.
From there, it then plummeted to the downside, returning to a place where the price previously found demand.
From here, bitcoin could run up to take the stops and liquidity above the build-up of wicks at the local high.
Weekly Bitcoin
Bitcoin respected the 50 weekly moving average over the last few weeks, a line it has held since the rally began.
However, if bitcoin were to fall the 100WMA is fast approaching the 2021 all-time high and previous range.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 has undergone a 10.7% correction in recent weeks, as the Trump tariffs spooked TradFi investors.
From here, the index could bounce, but if it doesn’t, it has reasonable levels below to form a bottom.
Gold
Gold is on a seemingly never-ending rally, which has skyrocketed the price over $3,000.
To put an end to gold’s famous rally, it will likely form a distribution range, which would lead to a high time frame top.
This may provide good rotation back to risk assets such as the S&P and bitcoin.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides at 34, still within Fear and bitcoin remains trading in and around $80,000.
To lift investor sentiment, bitcoin would likely need to reclaim $92,000. A drop lower could spike fear and panic in the market.
Important Dates
Wednesday 2 April, 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets due to increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 105,000, with the previous data coming in at 77,000.
Thursday 3 April, 12:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark.
The consensus is set at 53, with the previous data at 53.5.
Friday 4 April, 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 128,000, with the previous data at 151,000.
Gainers
Losers
Bitcoin’s Crossroads: Digital Gold or Everyday Money?
Bitcoin’s future is being pulled in two directions — as a reserve asset for governments or as peer-to-peer money for the people. Which path will it follow?
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment in its evolution. As the United States establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Wall Street firms continue to accumulate bitcoin, the question looms large: What kind of future are we building for Bitcoin?
Some say it's headed for glory as “digital gold”, a hard asset stored in vaults, fueling sovereign reserves and financial market speculation. But others, like Twitter founder and Bitcoin proponent Jack Dorsey, warn that this path could take Bitcoin far from its original vision: peer-to-peer electronic cash.
“If Bitcoin becomes just a form of digital gold, the project has failed.” — Jack Dorsey
That’s a powerful statement — and one worth unpacking.
💡 The Original Vision: Peer-to-Peer Cash
When Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper in 2008, the goal wasn’t to create a speculative asset. It was to build a censorship-resistant, decentralised, peer-to-peer payment system, digital money for the internet age.
Fast-forward to today, and that vision feels like it's been diluted. Bitcoin is now being adopted by governments, hoarded by asset managers, and increasingly seen as a long-term store of value. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it raises serious questions.
Are we building a financial revolution for the people, or are we reinforcing the same hierarchies Bitcoin was created to disrupt?
🌍 Bitcoin for the People: The Rise of Circular Economies
Across the globe, a quiet revolution is unfolding. Bitcoin circular economies, grassroots ecosystems where Bitcoin is used as daily currency, are gaining traction. From Cuba to South Africa, Peru to Isla Mujeres, these communities use BTC to buy groceries, pay salaries, and survive inflation.
These are not speculative plays. They are about real financial empowerment, about banking the unbanked, protecting savings from currency devaluation, and building self-sovereign economies.
In other words, Bitcoin isn’t just for governments or hedge funds. It’s for everyone, and that includes rural families, street vendors, and underserved populations around the world.
🇺🇸 Wall Street, Trump, and the Bitcoin Reserve
In the United States, the tone is different. President Donald Trump recently told attendees at the Nashville Bitcoin conference:
“Never sell your Bitcoin.”
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor and other Bitcoin maximalists praise BTC as an elite financial asset, a tool for sovereign power, institutional wealth, and global dominance.
And yes, there are benefits: a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could legitimise the asset, stabilise global markets, and spark broader adoption. But Dorsey and others ask: At what cost?
If Bitcoin becomes just another chess piece in a geopolitical power game, does it still serve the people it was built for?
⚖️ The Tension: Mass Adoption vs. Founding Values
This isn’t a binary debate, it's a spectrum. Bitcoin can be both a reserve asset and a payment method. It can be held by institutions and used by everyday people.
But as Stelios Rammos from GeyserFund points out, we must be mindful of how Bitcoin is adopted, not just whether it is.
“If there was a button to ban governments from Bitcoin, it wouldn’t be Bitcoin anymore.”
That’s the paradox. Bitcoin is permissionless. It’s for the underbanked and the overlords. For sovereign citizens and sovereign nations. It belongs to everyone, and no one.
📉 The Risk of Losing the Plot
Without grassroots use, Bitcoin risks becoming a museum piece, a shiny object for the elite. A low-volatility, high-capital investment vehicle that’s too valuable to spend.
But this isn’t what fuels adoption in developing economies. For them, Bitcoin isn’t an asset, it’s a lifeline. It’s the difference between watching your savings evaporate and being able to send your kids to school.
Bitcoin’s volatility is a challenge, yes. But with tools like Lightning Network, increased education, and dedicated community leaders, these hurdles can be overcome.
🔮 Looking Ahead: Bitcoin's Dual Destiny?
In the years ahead, we may see two parallel Bitcoin narratives unfold:
The Institutional Bitcoin: Stored in cold wallets by governments, corporates, and billionaires. A hedge, a reserve, a strategic asset.
The People’s Bitcoin: Used in villages, neighbourhoods, and towns as daily money. A tool for freedom, resilience, and community empowerment.
Both paths are possible, but they’re not guaranteed. For Bitcoin to stay true to its purpose, grassroots adoption must be protected, nurtured, and celebrated.
🧭 Final Thoughts: Back to the White Paper
Bitcoin is at a crossroads. It can either revolutionise the global financial system, or be absorbed by it. If we want a future where Bitcoin is not just held by banks but spent by baristas, we need to double down on peer-to-peer use, support circular economies, and educate users at the edges of the financial system.
Bitcoin isn’t just a number on a chart. It’s a mission.
And the next chapter?
It’s still being written — block by block.
The Death of NFTs? Q1 2025 Sales Plunge 63% — Some Collections Defy the Crash
NFT sales plummeted 63% in Q1 2025, but not all collections are dead. Pudgy Penguins, Milady Maker, and Doodles are defying the crash, hinting at a maturing market beyond the hype.
The once-booming NFT market is facing one of its steepest declines, with total sales crashing by 63% year-over-year in Q1 2025. Once the darlings of the digital asset world, non-fungible tokens are now fighting for relevance as investor interest dwindles and volumes dry up.
According to data from CryptoSlam, NFT sales from January to March 2025 totalled $1.5bn, down from $4.1bn in the same period of 2024. March 2025 marked the sharpest collapse, with NFT sales dropping a staggering 76% year-on-year, from $1.6bn to just $373m.
📉 Bored Apes, CryptoPunks Lead the Fall
Even flagship collections weren’t spared:
🐒 Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) saw a 61% drop, plummeting to just $29.8m in Q1 2025 from $78m in Q1 2024.
🎨 CryptoPunks, one of the most iconic collections, suffered a 47% drop, sliding to $60m from $114m a year earlier.
These once-high-flying collections have become the poster children of a fading NFT hype cycle.
🐧 Outliers: Penguins, Doodles & Miladys Fight Back
Not all projects are down bad. In fact, a few defied gravity:
🐧 Pudgy Penguins led the pack, clocking $72m in Q1 2025 — a 13% increase from $63.5m in Q1 2024. The feel-good, community-driven brand seems to resonate even as the market cools.
🎨 Doodles saw a solid 41% sales bump, rising from $22.6m to $32m, potentially bolstered by its mainstream collaboration with McDonald’s.
🎎 Milady Maker, an Ethereum-based anime-inspired collection, exploded with a 58% increase in volume. The project, which includes 10,000 avatars, gained notoriety thanks to shoutouts from Vitalik Buterin and Su Zhu, co-founder of the infamous Three Arrows Capital.
🟧 Bitcoin NFTs: Average Prices Up, Volumes Down
Bitcoin NFTs, specifically Ordinals, also took a hit, though with an interesting twist.
📉Total sales volume collapsed by 79%, from $1.4bn in Q1 2024 to just $291m in Q1 2025.
⚡️Despite this, the average price of a Bitcoin NFT soared to $633.24, up from $559.05 in 2024 and just $63.45 in 2023, according to DappRadar.
📉 The decline in volume coupled with a rise in average price suggests fewer transactions but perhaps a higher quality or scarcity factor at play.
Still, scepticism looms. Bitlayer co-founder Charlie Hu recently called Bitcoin NFTs "one of the most overhyped narratives" in the Bitcoin ecosystem, asserting that the hype cycle is “completely gone.”
⚰️ Is This the End for NFTs?
While the data points to a major downturn, it’s not necessarily the end of NFTs — but it might be the end of NFT speculation as we knew it. The 2021-style mania is over, and only projects with real communities, utility, or cultural stickiness are surviving the purge.
What’s emerging is a new era for NFTs:
🍔 Mainstream integration (eg, Doodles x McDonald’s)
🚗 Real-world use cases
🎭 Niche, highly engaged communities
The days of flipping JPEGs for six figures overnight? Likely gone. But NFTs, like the broader crypto ecosystem, may be maturing, shedding the hype and finding sustainable models for growth.
Can Yield-Bearing Stablecoins Kill the Banking Industry?
Can yield-bearing stablecoins disrupt traditional banking? As tokens like YLDS offer interest to holders, lawmakers warn of risks to mortgages, small banks, and the financial system. Here's what you need to know.
A growing wave of yield-bearing stablecoins is drawing attention—and concern—from lawmakers and traditional finance leaders, sparking a critical question: could they undermine the foundations of the modern banking system?
At the 2025 DC Blockchain Summit, US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand voiced her worries about this scenario, warning that allowing stablecoin issuers to offer interest could dismantle the local banking model as we know it.
“Do you want a stablecoin issuer to be able to issue interest? Probably not,” Gillibrand said. “Because if they are issuing interest, there is no reason to put your money in a local bank. If there is no reason to put your money in a local bank, who is going to give you a mortgage?”
She continued:
“If there is no deposit, small banks cannot do that anymore; it will collapse the financial services system that people rely on for their businesses and mortgages.”
🔍 What Is a Yield-Bearing Stablecoin?
Unlike traditional stablecoins such as USDC or USDT, which are pegged to fiat currencies and do not offer any returns, yield-bearing stablecoins are designed to generate passive income for their holders.
A recent example is YLDS, a new stablecoin by Figure Markets. Unlike typical stablecoins, YLDS is:
✅ Registered with the SEC
📈 Offers interest (around 3.8%)
🧾 Backed by securities held by the issuing company
💸 Pays out monthly with interest accruing daily
In short, it combines the perceived safety of a stablecoin with the earning potential of a traditional investment product.
“We see this as a catalyst to a much larger migration of TradFi to blockchain,” said Figure Markets CEO Mike Cagney.
⚖️ How Yield-Bearing Stablecoins Work
💡 Stablecoin 101: A typical stablecoin is backed 1:1 with fiat or government bonds and is used for fast, low-fee transactions or on/off ramps in crypto.
⚙️ Yield-bearing stablecoins, on the other hand, invest their reserves into income-generating assets like money market funds, corporate debt, or asset-backed securities, and then distribute the yield to token holders.
In YLDS’ case, it's backed by prime money market fund-style assets, which include not only government bonds but also riskier holdings like asset-backed securities (think mortgages or corporate loans).
This means:
📊 Higher returns than a regular stablecoin
⚠️ More risk, especially if the issuer lacks ringfencing (as is the case with YLDS)
🏦 Why Banks Are Worried
Senator Gillibrand’s concerns centre around disintermediation, a shift of deposits away from banks into higher-yielding digital assets.
Here's why that matters:
📉 Banks use customer deposits to fund loans like mortgages and small business financing
💸 If deposits move into crypto, banks lose access to cheap capital
🏚️ Less lending → weaker economic growth and fragile local finance ecosystems
In Gillibrand’s words, allowing stablecoins to offer yields would “collapse the financial services system.”
📉 Are Banks Already Losing the Yield Game?
While YLDS pays ~3.8%, some tokenised money market funds like those by Franklin Templeton and WisdomTree offer yields over 4.5% with lower risk, being backed by U.S. government securities.
However, yield-bearing stablecoins still hold an edge in:
🌍 Cross-border payments
🧱 DeFi integration
💳 Programmability for commerce and Web3 applications
These traits could make them more appealing than banks for younger, tech-savvy investors, significantly as inflation erodes returns on traditional savings.
🧠 So… Could Yield-Bearing Stablecoins Kill Banks?
Not overnight, but they pose a long-term threat if left unchecked.
Banks rely on deposits to fund lending. If enough people opt for yield-bearing digital assets instead of bank accounts, traditional financial institutions must adapt or shrink.
Regulatory efforts like the GENIUS Act aim to create a framework that balances innovation with consumer protection. However, critics argue it may just be a way to establish a privatised CBDC (central bank digital currency) under a different name.
🧩 Final Thoughts
Yield-bearing stablecoins like YLDS are blurring the lines between money, investments, and DeFi. While they offer opportunities for returns, they also raise serious questions about financial stability, regulatory oversight, and the future of traditional banking.
One thing is clear: the era of passive stablecoins may be coming to an end, and the financial system—banks, regulators, and consumers alike—must brace for the shift.
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