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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 144
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 144
Good morning! Bitcoin is closing in on a new all-time high, now just under 10% away. The broader market is riding the bullish wave too, with momentum building across the board.
Let’s take a deep dive into bitcoin, macro markets, and key levels to watch this week. 👇
This week's issue will feature technical analysis of bitcoin, Ethereum and DOT, as well as important dates and key news stories.
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Beacon Is Lit!
Bitcoin is less than 10% away from recording a new all-time high, while the rest of the market thrives under the bullish conditions.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin pushed to a new local high on Monday, reaching almost $106,000. After opening the green background below $97,000, the green background closed, capturing all of the upside move.
Stonksy has since opened a red background upon the slight weakness in bitcoin, but we could see it flip green again should momentum continue upwards.
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Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin had its second-highest weekly close ever last week. The $104,500 level is apparent weekly resistance, with the price yet to close above after many times.
The Fibonacci retracement suggests that a break to the upside could see bitcoin trade over $120,000 towards $130,000.
Ethereum
Ethereum has surged over 40% in under a week. Stonksy flipped long on it last Thursday, right as the price began to trend upwards.
Currently, Stonksy is still green on ETH as the price has wiped out months of selling in a matter of days. Should bitcoin hold up well, ETH could trade towards $3,000 next.
DOT
Polkadot has also had a massive move as the rising tide lifted all boats.
DOT rallied towards key resistance around the $5.20-$5.40 region. Stonksy captured all of this move on its background colour, marking a superbly impressive market-wide performance.
Should DOT break above this region, it may head towards $10 next.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index remains within Greed and scores 70. The market is upbeat, according to the Index.
Should bitcoin push to a new all-time high, the Index will likely shoot into Extreme Greed.
Important Dates
Tuesday 12 May, 12:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.4%, with the previous data the same.
Wednesday 14 May, 12:30 UTC - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity prices. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 3.1%, with the previous data at 3.3%.
Wednesday 14 May, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at 0%, with the previous figure at 1.5%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data is not forecasted, but the previous data came in at 0.4%.
Friday 16 May, 14:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan releases the index, which is a survey depicting consumer confidence in the economy. The survey provides insight into consumers’ confidence to spend money within the US economy.
The Index’s score is set to come in at 53.1, with the previous data coming in at 52.2.
Gainers
Losers
Tron Set to Overtake Ethereum in USDT Circulation After Latest $1bn Mint
Tether’s latest $1bn mint on Tron brings it within $1.4bn of surpassing Ethereum in USDT circulation. With stablecoin legislation nearing a US vote, markets prepare for major shifts.
⚡️ Tether minted $1bn USDT on Tron on 5 May, bringing total USDT on Tron to $71.4bn.
💰 Ethereum still leads with $72.8bn USDT, but the gap is narrowing fast.
💥 Tron previously held the lead in stablecoin circulation from July 2022 to November 2024.
📈 Tether’s total supply has hit an all-time high of $149.4bn, commanding a 61% market share.
🧑⚖️ Key stablecoin legislation in the US could impact future issuance and expansion.
The Tron network is inching closer to surpassing Ethereum as the leading blockchain for Tether’s USDT after another billion-dollar mint this week.
On 5 May, Tether minted $1bn worth of USDT on the Tron blockchain, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. The mint pushed Tron’s total USDT supply to $71.4bn, as confirmed by the Tether Transparency Report.
In comparison, Ethereum currently hosts $72.8bn in circulating USDT, meaning Tron is now just $1.4bn away from regaining the top spot for Tether issuance.
🥇 Battle for Stablecoin Dominance
Tron previously overtook Ethereum in USDT circulation between July 2022 and November 2024, before Ethereum reclaimed the lead following a massive $18bn mint, according to CryptoQuant.
Solana holds a distant third with $1.9bn in USDT, while smaller amounts circulate across Ton, Avalanche, Aptos, Near, Celo, and Cosmos.
🔝 Tether Hits Record Circulation, Commands Market
Tether’s total circulating supply has now reached a record $149.4bn, representing a commanding 61% share of the entire stablecoin market, according to CoinGecko. That’s an 8.6% increase since the beginning of 2025.
Its closest competitor, Circle’s USDC, currently holds around $62bn in supply, accounting for 25% of the stablecoin market.
Stablecoins now represent 8% of the total crypto market cap, which has steadily climbed due to increased demand for on-chain liquidity, trading, and cross-border transactions.
🇺🇸 Stablecoin Legislation on the Horizon
The United States Treasury recently projected that the stablecoin market could swell to $2 trillion by 2028, assuming regulatory clarity is achieved. That clarity may come soon.
Two major bills are currently in the pipeline:
🧠 The GENIUS Act: Seeks to define “payment stablecoins” and establish reserve requirements for issuers.
🧱 The STABLE Act: Focuses on the supervision and licensing of federally qualified nonbank stablecoin issuers.
The GENIUS Act is expected to be put to a vote before 26 May, while the STABLE Act continues to move through Congress.
Meanwhile, Tether is planning a US-based stablecoin launch later this year, with the rollout contingent on the successful passage of this legislation.
Virginia Man Sentenced to 30 Years for Funding ISIS With Crypto
A Virginia man has been sentenced to over 30 years in prison after converting over $185,000 into crypto to fund ISIS fighters and prison escapes. Here’s what we know.
🚓 A Virginia man was sentenced to 30 years and 4 months in prison for sending over $185,000 in crypto to ISIS
💰 Mohammed Azharuddin Chhipa raised funds online and in-person from 2019 to 2022, converting them to crypto before smuggling them into Syria
🪪 Chhipa used social media, fake identities, and international travel to funnel the money to ISIS fighters and imprisoned members
🌎 After being tipped off by the FBI, Chhipa tried to flee the country, travelling through Mexico and Guatemala before being intercepted via Interpol
💣 Crypto-Fueled Terrorism Funding Gets 30-Year Sentence
In a stark reminder of crypto’s potential misuse, a naturalised US citizen from Virginia has been sentenced to more than three decades behind bars for financially supporting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) using cryptocurrency.
Mohammed Azharuddin Chhipa, 35, was convicted of sending over $185,000 to ISIS from 2019 to 2022, much of it in crypto. U.S. prosecutors say the funds were used to:
🏃♀️ Help female ISIS members escape Syrian prison camps
🇸🇾 Support ongoing conflict and operations in Syria
⚡️ Circumvent international sanctions through digital currency rails
According to the Department of Justice, Chhipa used social media to solicit donations, sometimes driving hundreds of miles to pick up cash, which he later converted to crypto and smuggled via Turkey into ISIS hands across the Syrian border.
🕵️♂️ FBI Sting and a Failed International Escape
During the investigation, Chhipa attempted to escape prosecution by going on the run, withdrawing cash, using fake names, and hopping borders.
After an FBI raid on his home in August 2019, Chhipa:
🏧 Withdrew $1,800 from an ATM
🌮 Paid a stranger at Taco Bell for a ride
✈️ Traveled from Virginia → Mexico → Guatemala
🛫 Bought plane tickets to Panama → Germany → Egypt
🚓 Was caught via Interpol and returned to U.S. custody
A federal jury convicted him in December 2023 on multiple counts of providing material support to a terrorist organisation.
🧨 DOJ Sends a Message
“This defendant directly financed ISIS in its efforts to commit vile terrorist atrocities,” said Attorney General Pam Bondi. “This severe sentence illustrates that if you fund terrorism, we will prosecute you and put you behind bars for decades.”
⚠️ Crypto and Terrorism Financing: A Global Concern
While crypto offers privacy and fast cross-border transfers, cases like this underscore its potential for abuse. The U.S. and international agencies continue to tighten their oversight of digital assets, particularly in relation to terrorism, money laundering, and nation-state threats.
In April, the US Treasury sanctioned Myanmar’s militia for alleged crypto-based scams, and in February, a $1.4bn hack on Bybit raised fresh questions about how stolen or misused funds are laundered at scale.
Ethereum vs Solana: Momentum, Memes, and the Battle for Institutional Dominance
Ethereum surged 20% post-Pectra, but can it reclaim dominance over Solana? Here's where ETH and SOL stand in 2025’s battle for market leadership — and what traders need to watch next.
💰 Ethereum surged 20% post-Pectra upgrade, shaking off a weak 2025.
🚀 Solana continues to dominate in fees and transaction volume, but memecoin dependence clouds its long-term value case.
🔒Institutions still favour Ethereum’s security and stability, though Solana’s fast rise keeps it firmly in the conversation.
🔭 ETH’s next target? Historically, Q2 performance puts $2,950 on the radar.
🤞 SOL’s path forward hinges on shifting from memes to stable revenue streams.
🚀 Pectra Power: Ethereum's Comeback?
Ethereum's fortunes might finally be turning.
After a sluggish start to 2025, Ether (ETH) has exploded 20% higher in the past 24 hours, fueled by the long-awaited Pectra upgrade. The upgrade introduces new wallet functionality, higher staking limits, and enhanced scalability.
🚀 ETH is up 52% over the past month
📈 Open Interest spiked 21%, indicating new long positions
🫗 $328m in shorts were liquidated in the move
“ETH holders thinking this might finally be the turning point,” said trader Bob Loukas.
Even so, the path back to dominance is still rocky. Despite the bullish candle, spot ETH ETFs have logged outflows three days in a row, and sentiment remains shaky.
📉 ETH’s Rough Year… Until Now
Let’s not forget: ETH was down 56% year-to-date by 9 April, bottoming out at $1,472.
But between the Pectra pump, bitcoin reclaiming $100k, and geopolitical tailwinds (like Trump’s new UK trade deal and Coinbase’s $2.9B Deribit acquisition), ETH has found fresh footing.
Analysts like Derive’s Nick Forster say this week’s price action is driven by “a combination of factors,” not just the hard fork hype.
📈 If historical Q2 performance repeats (62.2% average return), ETH could hit ~$2,950 by the end of June.
🥊 Meanwhile… What About Solana?
Solana has had a monster run of its own. But the conversation is shifting from speed to sustainability.
In a new report, crypto bank Sygnum says Solana has yet to prove it can convince institutions that it’s a reliable long-term platform.
“We do not yet see convincing signs that Solana would be the preferred choice as Ethereum’s security, stability and longevity are highly prized.”
That said, Solana still leads Ethereum in fee generation and raw transaction count, thanks mostly to memecoins and NFT hype.
But here’s the catch:
🔸 Most of those fees go to validators, not SOL holders
🔸 Revenue is highly concentrated in memecoin activity, making it harder to project stability
🔸 A March proposal to cut SOL inflation was rejected by the community, dampening the tokenomics reform
🧠 ETH vs SOL: What the Institutions Want
Sygnum makes it clear: when it comes to tokenisation, stablecoins, and regulated DeFi, Ethereum still wins. ETH’s institutional edge lies in:
🔐 Network security
⚡️ Layer 2 scaling
🦾 Support from regulators and TradFi
But Solana is gaining, especially in DeFi total value locked (TVL). It may close the gap if it can shift from memecoin chaos to more stable revenue streams.
🔚 Final Word
The Pectra upgrade gives Ethereum its first real sentiment boost in months, but Solana is still hungry.
Institutions want predictable revenue, security, and long-term clarity — right now, that still means Ethereum. But if Solana diversifies away from memes and continues eating into DeFi share, this rivalry is far from over.
📊 ETH may be flashing green today, but SOL’s momentum engine isn’t shutting off anytime soon.
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