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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 151
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 151
Good morning! Bitcoin just logged its highest monthly close ever, hinting at a possible rally brewing for July! However, not everyone is convinced, some experts warn a correction could be lurking after such a strong run. Let’s break down BTC, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, DXY and the key levels to watch this week 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Awaits Its Turn
While bitcoin continues to consolidate, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are printing record highs, with a roaring stock market a stark contrast from the crypto market.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is finding resistance at $108,600, coinciding with where the last rally also ended.
This is the main obstacle for bitcoin currently. However, should it clear it, then $110,270 will be the last line of defence before it encounters the all-time high.
Still, persistent rejection may see it fall back to the downside.
S&P 500
Over in the stock market things are heating up, with the S&P 500 up to new all-time highs.
Since the dip back in March and April, the index is up almost 30%.
From the previous all-time high the 1.618 Fib extension takes the price towards $7,000.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq is also recording new highs, and is up a massive 38% from the current yearly low.
This demonstrates the strength in TradFi currently, while crypto is mostly consolidating awaiting bitcoin’s next move.
However, it is technology that is driving the moves, with Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta all at record highs too.
DXY
While it is a wave of green, the DXY is tumbling to multi-year lows.
After breaking to the downside out of its high time frame range, the DXY appears to be heading towards demand, which lies around 90.
This would take another 7% off the value, which is already down over 12% since Trump took office.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides at 64 and within the Greed segment.
While there has been minimal change in the bitcoin price, investors have had no reason to change their stance, with the Index remaining largely unchanged.
Important Dates
Tuesday 1 July, 13:30 UTC - Jerome Powell Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a policy panel with other central bankers at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.
Wednesday 2 July, 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets dueSolana’s increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 85,000, with the previous data coming in at 37,000. Therefore, the ADP expects a slight rise in employment.
Thursday 3 July, 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 110,000, with the previous data at 139,000.
Thursday 3 July, 14:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, which provides a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark.
The consensus is set at 50.5, with the previous data at 49.9.
Gainers
Losers
Saylor’s Strategy Inches Toward S&P 500 — If Bitcoin Holds the Line
According to analyst Jeff Walton, strategy (MSTR) has a 91% chance of entering the S&P 500, but only if Bitcoin stays above $95,000 until June 30.
TL;DR
📊 Strategy (MSTR) could join the S&P 500 this quarter — but Bitcoin must stay above $95,000.
🔎 Analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% chance of inclusion, based on historical BTC data.
🧮 MSTR needs positive cumulative earnings across four quarters to qualify.
📉 Rising tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed Bitcoin under $100K, but the price has since recovered.
💼 Strategy would become the second crypto-linked firm in the S&P 500 after Coinbase.
Strategy’s S&P Bid Hinges on Bitcoin Staying Strong
Michael Saylor’s firm, MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy (MSTR), is edging closer to S&P 500 inclusion — but there's a catch. The company’s path depends almost entirely on Bitcoin’s stability over the next few days.
According to financial analyst Jeff Walton, there’s a 91% chance MSTR makes it into the elite index if Bitcoin remains above $95,000 through June 30— the end of Q2. Any serious drop before that date could derail the plan.
What Strategy Needs to Qualify ✅
The S&P 500 only admits companies with positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. That’s tricky for MSTR, which has posted net losses in three of those quarters. Now, Q2 needs to overdeliver.
Here’s what’s at play:
🟩Current BTC price: ~$106,400 at time of writing
🟥Critical BTC level: $95,240 — anything below this jeopardises MSTR’s Q2 earnings
📊Bitcoin holdings: Strategy owns 592,345 BTC, the largest among public companies
📘Accounting rule ASU 2023-08: Now requires BTC gains/losses to be reflected in net income each quarter
If BTC closes Q2 above $95K, Strategy’s paper profits could be enough to push its trailing earnings positive, meeting S&P criteria.
Odds Are in Strategy’s Favour… Statistically 📉
Walton broke it down using historical Bitcoin data since 2014. His findings?
📉 In any given 6-day period since 2014, BTC has dropped more than 10% just 8.7% of the time
✅ That means 91.3% of 6-day periods did not see such a drop
🔐 The closer we get to June 30, the higher the probability BTC won’t dip that much:
5️⃣ days left: 92.4% chance
4️⃣ days: 93.4%
3️⃣ days: 94.5%
2️⃣ days: 95.8%
1️⃣ day: 97.6%
While nothing is guaranteed — especially in crypto — the math appears to favour Saylor.
Tensions Could Still Spoil the Party
Of course, macro risk still looms large. Bitcoin dipped under $100k over the weekend due to Middle East tensions. Although the price quickly recovered, further escalations could threaten BTC’s support level — and with it, Strategy’s earnings target.
And if MSTR misses its mark?
It’ll have to wait for a future quarter when Bitcoin and earnings are higher.
Why It Matters: Another Win for Crypto on Wall Street
If MSTR makes it in, it would become the second crypto-related company to join the S&P 500 this year, following Coinbase’s entry in May.
🧱Coinbase inclusionmarked a milestone for crypto legitimacy.
🏛️Strategy inclusionwould reinforce that institutional interest is not just speculative — it's structural.
Bitpace CRO Meryem Habibi summed it up:
“It cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class.”
Strategy is already in the Nasdaq-100 as of December 2024. A seat in the S&P 500 would crown its transformation from niche BTC bull to mainstream financial powerhouse.
Coinbase Named Among TIME’s Most Influential Companies of 2025
TIME names Coinbase one of the world’s most influential companies in 2025, as the exchange expands globally and pushes for crypto regulation in Washington. Here's what it means for the crypto industry.
TL;DR
🏆 Coinbase has been named a 2025 TIME 100 Most Influential Company as a “disruptor.”
💼 It’s praised for leading policy efforts and shaping crypto regulation in Washington.
📈 COIN stock surged from $303 to $382 after the GENIUS Act passed.
🌍 Coinbase expands into the EU under MiCA and eyes tokenised stock trading.
🇺🇸 Trump addressed Coinbase’s summit, promising pro-crypto regulation.
TIME Names Coinbase a Top Influencer in 2025
Crypto exchange Coinbase has been named one of TIME’s100 Most Influential Companies of 2025, recognised in the “Disruptor” category for its role in shaping crypto policy and regulation in the U.S.
“The company... is a key driver of the industry’s policy efforts in Washington D.C. If industry-friendly bills are passed, Coinbase stands to become an even bigger hub for U.S. crypto activity.”— TIME Magazine
The recognition follows a sharp rally in Coinbase stock (COIN),which surged nearly 26% in a weekafter the US Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin bill on June 17. The bill is seen as a major step toward federal-level crypto regulation.
COIN Stock Hits New Highs
💹 Year-to-date, COIN is up 42%.
💥 Following the GENIUS Act news, shares jumped from $303 to a high of $382.
📊Coinbase was recently added to the S&P 500, becoming the first crypto firm included in the index.
These milestones reinforce Coinbase’s status as a bellwether for the broader crypto market, often signalling momentum in both investor sentiment and regulatory progress.
New Markets, New Ambitions
Coinbase is expanding fast, both in terms of product offerings and global reach.
🔁 Tokenised Equities Coming?
The exchange is reportedly seeking SEC approval to offer tokenised stock trading, a move that would put it in direct competition with apps like Robinhood and WeBull.
🇪🇺 Coinbase Gains EU Approval Under MiCA
On June 20, Coinbase announced it secured a license under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. The license, issued by Luxembourg’s financial regulator, enables Coinbase to legally operate across the European Union, with Luxembourg as its EU headquarters.
Political Momentum
Coinbase is becoming more than just a platform — it’s a political force in the making.
At its State of Crypto Summit in June, President Donald Trump delivered a pre-recorded speech pledging a new crypto regulatory framework:
“We will be working to create clear and simple market frameworks that will allow America to dominate the future of crypto and Bitcoin.”— President Donald Trump.
Final Thoughts
With global licenses, political momentum, and rising investor confidence, Coinbase is positioning itself at the heart of the crypto-finance future. Recognition from TIME — paired with major stock gains and regulatory wins — shows that the exchange isn’t just surviving in 2025, it’s leading.
Bitcoin Sets Monthly Record — Is a July Rally on the Horizon?
Bitcoin just logged its highest monthly close ever, and history suggests a 9% rally could be brewing for July. Here's why the charts and cycles are aligning in BTC’s favour.
TL;DR
💰 Bitcoin closed June at an all-time monthly high of just over $107,000.
🔁 Three consecutive green monthly candles mark a strong uptrend since April’s $75K dip.
🔮 July has historically delivered average gains of 9% and 10x Research thinks this year could be no different.
⚠️ “Spinning top” candle may suggest price indecision, but momentum remains bullish.
🧱 BTC faces a key resistance at $108,890 — reclaiming it as support could open the door to fresh highs.
June’s Historic Close: Bitcoin Enters the $107K Club
Bitcoin (BTC) ended June with a record-breaking monthly candle just north of $107,000 — its highest close on record, according to 10x Research. This topples the previous highs from:
📆May: ~$104,600
📆January: ~$102,450
📆November 2024: ~$96,500 (post-Trump election rally)
The asset is now three-for-three in posting green monthly candles since its April correction to $75,000, a $32,000 rebound in under 90 days.
📈 2025 is officially the year of six-figure closes.
Candlestick Patterns Say: "Watch This Space" 🕯️
Despite the bullish momentum, June’s candle printed a “spinning top” formation — a candlestick with a small body and long upper and lower wicks.
This usuallysignals market indecision, where neither buyers nor sellers gain control, and historically, it can precede reversals or cooling periods.
Last time we saw a green spinning top (July 2024), BTC followed with a red “hammer” and an 8.6% drop to $59,000 the next month.
But this time might be different...
10x Research: “July Rally? Odds Look Good.” 🔮
According to 10x Research head Markus Thielen, seasonal trends are on Bitcoin’s side. The analysis shows:
💥 BTC has postedgains in 7 of the last 10 Julys
💸 Average July return:+9%
🦾 Negative Julys saw only modest pullbacks, staying in single-digit territory
“This seasonal trend sets a favorable backdrop for a potential move higher,”said Thielen, noting that strong US equities often spill over into crypto momentum.
Resistance Watch: $108,890 Is the Wall to Beat 🧱
Popular analyst Rekt Capital notes that BTC’s weekly candle closed just under key resistance at $108,890, landing at $108,380.
If Bitcoin fails to flip that resistance into support, it risks forming a lower high — an early warning sign of price exhaustion.
To break out decisively, Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level on the daily chart and build a new support base above it.
Until then, BTC remains range-bound between ~$106k and ~$109k.
Zooming Out: What’s Driving Bitcoin?
📉April Halvingreduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, tightening miner supply.
🇺🇸Pro-crypto political climate(hello, Trump’s regulatory pledges) has added bullish sentiment.
💸Institutional inflowscontinue rising, especially with ETFs and corporate treasuries growing.
Bottom Line: July Is Shaping Up — But BTC Has Work to Do
Bitcoin’s record close and historical July trends hint at more upside ahead. But price is hovering just below major resistance, and a spinning top candlestick suggests indecision is creeping in.
Still, with momentum intact and macro tailwinds blowing in crypto’s favour, the next leg up might just be a daily breakout away.
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