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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 157
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 157
Good morning! Bitcoin’s dip has the market eyeing a reset, but have we hit support or is further slide on the cards? Ethereum and alts are also lined up on key levels. With a big week of Fed updates ahead, volatility is on the menu. Let’s break down the key levels and what’s driving the action 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Resets The Board
Bitcoin has dropped 8% from its all-time high we saw on Thursday of last week, offering the market a chance to reset its position, should it take it.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has dropped into a key area around $115,000. This area has worked as S/R for the price over the past two months.
From here, bitcoin could put together a rally to take out the lower highs created and fill in the candle that left behind inefficiency, taking the price towards $120,000.
However, further weakness could see a complete wipeout down towards $111,000-$110,000.
Ethereum
Ethereum is also within what can be considered a bounce zone. The price has retraced over 12% from its local high and is retesting the origin of the impulse move up.
It can’t be ruled out that the lows of $4,155 get taken, but like bitcoin, there are clear levels for ETH to follow back upwards after it created a stair-step down pattern.
If this proves to be just a standard pullback, then the move to an all-time high could originate from here.
Chainlink
Chainlink has been one of the strongest altcoins on this market dip.
The price moved against the market and recorded fresh local highs, entering one of two crucial supply zones.
From here, LINK could drop into a restest of $22, or move up towards the next area of interest at $30.
Tron
Tron is another example of persistent strength, with the price recording eight-straight green weekly candles thus far.
This has positioned TRON to begin filling-in its huge upside wick left behind in December of last year.
A drop into weekly S/R must hold for it to keep its current momentum, but filling the wick could lead to TRON’s rally coming to an end.
Important Dates:
Wednesday 20 August, 18:00 UTC - FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting in June will be released. This will provide a deeper insight into what was discussed in the meeting, alongside the tone of the comments.
The market will use the minutes as a marker leading up to the next FOMC meeting.
Thursday 21 August, 13:45 UTC - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which measures the manufacturing industry. The data is a crucial measurement of the US economy, as it is a significant portion of the revenue for large businesses.
The data is forecasted at 49.8.
Thursday 21 August, 13:45 UTC- S&P Global Services PMI
S&P Global also releases a second piece of data, the services PMI data, which measures the service industry. The data is another factor alluding to the economy’s strength, as it makes up much of the GDP alongside manufacturing.
The data is forecasted at 53.3, with the previous at 55.7.
Friday 22 August, 14:00 - Jerome Powell Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a speech on the US economic outlook and framework review at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming, United States.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index has remained within Greed despite bitcoin’s drop off.
The Index scores 56 as the market appears not overly concerned with the drop. From here, a recovery could see excitement of new highs enter sentiment, while a drop lower could enhance fears.
Gainers
Losers
Ethereum Could Hit $8.6k if Bitcoin Reaches $150k, Says Trader
Trader Yashasedu says ETH could rally to $8,656 if Bitcoin hits $150,000, citing past bull cycle market cap ratios and surging institutional demand.
TL;DR
📈Bull run math: ETH historically reaches 30–35% of BTC’s market cap in major rallies.
💰Price target: At 35% share and BTC at $150k, ETH could hit $8,656.
📊Lower range: At 21.7–30% share, ETH could trade between $5,376 and $7,420.
🏦Institutional push: Record $1.01bn inflows into spot ETH ETFs in one day.
🔄Near-term view: Analysts expect ETH to reclaim its ATH before any cooling.
Historical Trends Point to Big ETH Upside
Crypto trader Yashasedu believes Ethereum could more than double from current levels if Bitcoin reaches the much-anticipated $150,000 mark.
The trader noted that in past bull markets, ETH’s market cap has climbed to 30–35% of Bitcoin’s, even hitting 36% during the 2021 rally.
Applying that ratio to a $150k BTC, ETH’s price could reach $8,656 at the upper bound. Even a more conservative 21.7–30% range would place ETH between $5,376 and $7,420.
“We’re seeing a similar setup now,”Yashasedu said, pointing to Ethereum’s $90bn total value locked (TVL), rising institutional interest, and surging ETF demand.
BTC Price Targets Fuel ETH Optimism
Multiple analysts see BTC breaking well past $150k this cycle.
👉Tom Lee (Fundstrat): BTC could reach $250k in 2025.
👉Arthur Hayes (BitMEX): Similar high-end prediction.
👉Joe Burnett (Unchained): $250k possible by end of 2025.
If BTC delivers on those forecasts, ETH’s upside could be even greater.
Institutional Demand Kicks In
Recent developments are boosting the bullish case for ETH:
👉Spot ETH ETFs recorded $1.01bn in net inflows in a single day — the largest on record.
👉 BitMine Immersion Technologies announced plans to raise up to $20bn for ETH purchases.
These moves come as ETH trades at $4,630, only 5.35% below its November 2021 all-time high of $4,878 (CoinMarketCap).
Analysts Eye ATH Break
Yashasedu expects no “cool off” until ETH breaks its ATH. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, agrees:
“We’ll likely see a new ATH for ETH and then some consolidation.”
What’s Next
If BTC hits $150k, historical market cap patterns suggest ETH could deliver triple-digit percentage gains from here. But the rally may depend on sustained institutional flows, ETF demand, and macro sentiment heading into year-end.
Coinbase Says Market Setting Up for Full-Scale Altcoin Season by September
Coinbase analysts predict market conditions could trigger a full-scale altcoin season as Bitcoin dominance declines, institutional ETH demand rises, and a favourable macro backdrop emerges.
TL;DR
📈Altcoin surge: Coinbase sees signs of a September altcoin season.
📉Bitcoin dominance drops: BTC’s market share has fallen from 65% in May to 59%.
🏦Macro boost: Fed rate cut odds at 92% could unlock retail capital.
📊Indexes climbing: Altseason indicators rising but still below the 75 threshold.
💡Institutional fuel: ETH demand from treasuries and stablecoin narratives driving momentum.
Coinbase Flags Altcoin Season Potential
Coinbase Institutional’s head of research, David Duong, says market signals point toward a full-scale altcoin season as early as September.
The firm defines altcoin season as:
When at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
Duong highlighted significant sidelined retail capital in money market funds that could re-enter crypto if the Federal Reserve eases policy.
Macro Winds Favour High-Risk Assets
📊US CPI: July inflation held at 2.7% YoY.
💥Fed futures: Markets now price a 92% chance of a September rate cut.
Lower interest rates could draw fresh capital into high-beta crypto sectors, with altcoins benefiting most.
BTC Dominance Weakens
Bitcoin’s market dominance has:
📉 Dropped ~10% since May (65% → 59%).
📉Reached its lowest level since January.
Day trader Ito Shimotsuma noted BTC’s first monthly bearish cross in dominance since January 2021 — historically followed by four months of altcoin rallies.
Altseason Indexes Rising — But Not There Yet
📊CoinMarketCap: 44 (up from <25 in July).
📊Blockchain Center: 53 (neutral).
📊CryptoRank: 50 (neutral).
While the altcoin market cap is up 50% since July, these indexes remain below the 75 “full altseason” threshold.
ETH Driving Institutional Rotation
Duong credits the rally to:
💰 Digital asset treasuries are increasing ETH exposure.
💸 Stablecoin adoption is bolstering demand.
🧑💼 Rising institutional interest in Ethereum.
Singapore VC Joanna Liang adds that three conditions must align for an altseason:
1️⃣ Supportive macro backdrop.
2️⃣ Declining BTC dominance.
3️⃣ A strong, fresh narrative.
She notes past cycles were driven by ICOs (2017–2018), Layer-1 chains (2018–2019), and DeFi/NFTs (2021–2022) — with the current market still awaiting a clear primary catalyst.
The Road to September
If Bitcoin dominance continues to fall, macro conditions ease, and a compelling new market narrative emerges, altcoins could lead the crypto market into year-end, with Ethereum likely taking centre stage.
Analysts Split on Whether Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Coming to an End
🔄 Analysts Split on Whether Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Coming to an End
TL;DR
🛑Cycle over? Analysts like Jason Williams and Matthew Hougan say four-year BTC cycles are ending.
📊Treasury influence: Top 100 BTC-holding firms own nearly one million Bitcoin.
🌐Macro factors: Institutional inflows, regulations, and ETFs now rival halving impacts.
🔁Counterpoint: Critics argue halving cycles are hard-coded and still shape markets.
🏦ETF effect: Some believe ETFs strengthen cycle links with traditional finance.
The Four-Year Cycle Debate
For over a decade, Bitcoin markets have followed a four-year bull–bear rhythm linked to the halving, with price peaks in the year after each event (2013, 2017, 2021, and possibly 2025).
But a growing number of analysts now say this pattern may be breaking down.
Investor Jason Williams pointed to the nearly one million BTC held by the top 100 Bitcoin treasury firms, arguing this corporate accumulation marks“why the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is over.”
Matthew Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, echoed the view in a CNBC interview, saying:
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026… but I think the 4-year cycle is over.”
“Game Over” for the Halving-Driven Market?
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, said halvings are now “immaterial to trading float” since 95% of BTC is already mined. Supply, he explained, comes mainly from early holders (“OGs”) selling, while demand comes from retail spot buyers, ETFs, and treasury companies.
Sygnum Bank’s Martin Burgherr agreed that halving is just one of several drivers in today’s market:
“The four-year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the market’s central script.”
He cited macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory shifts, and ETF adoption as equally important forces.
Why Some Say the Cycle Still Holds
Not everyone is convinced the halving’s influence is fading. Crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB told his 715,000 X followers that the cycle remains intact — and may even be strengthened by ETFs.
ETFs, he argued, tie crypto markets more closely to traditional finance, which already runs on four-year presidential cycles.
“Not to mention 4-year halving cycles which simply just can’t be cancelled as they’re mathematically programmed lol.”
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca also pushed back, saying institutional involvement hasn’t erased Bitcoin’s cyclical nature:
“I’m not sure I agree with that… the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is still intact.”
What’s Next
With Bitcoin’s 2024 halving behind us, the coming year will be a key test for both sides of the debate. If BTC follows the historic pattern with a price peak in 2025, the halving cycle theory gets another win. But if gains spread into 2026 and beyond, it may signal a new market structure driven by macro forces, corporate treasuries, and ETFs.
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