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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 162
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 162
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Gm! Bitcoin enters the new week still reeling from the largest liquidation event in crypto history. In a matter of minutes, billions were wiped from open positions, sending shockwaves through every corner of the market.
Now, with volatility cooling and sentiment shaken, attention turns to whether bitcoin can stabilise and rebuild momentum - or if more turbulence lies ahead 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Battles For Bulls
Following the mass liquidation event of last week, bitcoin is attempting to provide some positivity to those still trading the market.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin cascaded back to levels not seen since June. On Friday it fell close to $102,000. However, minus the wild five minutes the market witnessed, the price settled exactly where it needed to.
This was the $108,000-$109,000 region. From here, bitcoin can mount a bid back towards the highs as long as it stays above there.
To the upside, $116,000 is marked as local resistance, while the ultimate test will be the sell-off zone at $121,000.
200DMA & 200DEMA
Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average and the 200 exponential daily moving average for the first time since April.
These lines are high time frame, vital points for any price demonstrating a trend and trend strength.
While the price cut through both of the lines on the drop, it has closed with much room above and has not yet gone for another test.
Losing these for a daily close could suggest a much deeper pullback may be underway.
BNB
BNB is the coin currently in the spotlight.
The price has been recording new all-time highs as it trends aggressively to the upside, but may be entering a phase of consolidation after such a move.
As seen, BNB is wedged between a key lower time frame S/R zone and upper resistance. This could act as key levels as the price cools off for a period of time.
DOGE
Dogecoin is an example of the level of cascade that occurred on Friday.
The price dropped over 60% in what many may argue is the biggest flash crash ever to happen in the industry.
Still, it is the regions in which price was pushed to is what is interesting. As seen, it dropped to a level not tested in one year. This is the same for others, such as XRP, SUI and more.
The vast depletion in value gave backtests to points not seen for one year or more. However, DOGE remains trapped within its consolidation range after the recovery.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index has plunged into the Fear section and scores 34, representing a steep drop off from last week.
This was caused by the movements of Friday and the deep drop in the market, which is still being felt today.
Should bitcoin push back up towards $120,000, overall sentiment will likely improve drastically.
Gainers
Losers
$19bn Crypto Liquidation Sparks Debate: Organic Reset or Market Maker Manipulation?
A record $19bn liquidation wiped out nearly half of DeFi open interest on Friday. Analysts call it a “controlled deleveraging,” while others accuse market makers of creating a liquidity vacuum that deepened the crash.
TLDR:
💥 Friday’s flash crash triggered $19bn in liquidations, wiping out nearly half of all open interest on decentralised derivatives markets.
📊 Open interest on DEXs plunged from $26bn to $14bn, while DEX volumes hit a record $177bn for the week.
🧮 Analysts at CryptoQuant called it a “controlled deleveraging”, saying 93% of the unwind was organic.
🏦 Others accuse major market makers of pulling liquidity at critical moments, creating a “liquidity vacuum” that deepened the crash.
⚠️ Market depth on Binance reportedly fell 98% during the event before stabilising hours later.
$19bn Crash Divides the Market
A record $19bn liquidation event on Fridayhas split the crypto community over whether the collapse was a natural correction or a coordinated liquidity play by large trading entities.
According to DeFiLlama,open interest in perpetual futures across decentralised exchanges fell from $26bn to below $14bn, marking one of the sharpest declines on record.
Meanwhile, DEX trading volumes surged to $177bn for the week, and lending protocol fees topped $20m in a single day, both all-time highs.
Total crypto borrowing also dropped below $60bn for the first time since August, signalling a broader deleveraging across DeFi markets.
Analysts See “Mature” Market Reset
Despite widespread speculation of manipulation, data from CryptoQuant suggests that the majority of the drawdown was orderly rather than chaotic.
Out of the $14bn reduction in open interest, roughly 93% was deemed a “controlled deleveraging, not a cascade,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
Only about $1bn in Bitcoin longs were forcibly liquidated, a relatively modest amount compared to the scale of the event.
“This marks a very mature moment for Bitcoin,”Adler said in a Tuesday post on X.“The market absorbed a large amount of leverage without a full liquidation spiral.”
Market Makers Accused of “Liquidity Vacuum”
Not everyone agrees. Several on-chain analysts accused market makers (MMs) of withdrawing liquidity during the downturn, amplifying price volatility and deepening the losses.
Blockchain researcher YQ noted that market makers began pulling bids from order books around 9:00 p.m. UTC, roughly an hour after Donald Trump’s tariff threat sparked macro-market jitters.
By 9:20 p.m. UTC, crypto markets bottomed out, while aggregate market depth across major tokens collapsed by 98%, falling to just $27,000 in visible liquidity, YQ reported.
“Market makers started withdrawing liquidity at 9:00 pm UTC. By 9:20 pm, most tokens bottomed,”YQ wrote.“It created a liquidity vacuum that made a normal correction look like a collapse.”
Binance Liquidity Fell 98% During the Flash Crash
Data from Coinwatch corroborated those findings, showing that Binance’s order book depth dropped 98% during the flash crash.
“When token prices crashed, both MMs pulled everything from the books,”Coinwatch posted.“1.5 hours later, Blue turned their bots back on. Turquoise barely returned.”
In one case, Coinwatch said two out of three market makers for a $5bn Binance-listed token “deserted their responsibility for five hours,” leaving retail traders with virtually no liquidity.
The platform said it was in contact with the affected MMs to“accelerate their return to the order books.”
Organic Flush or Orchestrated Play?
While blockchain data supports the theory of a market-wide deleveraging, the evidence of mass liquidity withdrawal suggests that both mechanisms may have played a role.
The rapid unwind mirrors earlier episodes of“mechanical resets”in the crypto derivatives market, periods when leverage builds up excessively and is cleared by sharp but temporary corrections.
“Even if 90% of the move was organic, 10% of strategic liquidity withdrawal can turn a reset into a rout.”
With over $19bn wiped, 250,000 traders liquidated, and DEX volumes hitting new highs, the event underscores both the growing maturity — and lingering fragility — of decentralised crypto markets.
Hyperliquid vs Aster: Clash at the Top of Decentralised Perps
The decentralised perpetual futures arena has heated up in 2025.
For years, Hyperliquid reigned unopposed, pulling off what many thought impossible: high-performance, noncustodial derivatives. But now enters Aster, backed by deep capital and aggressive incentives. The duel between them is more than volume chasing; it’s a battle over sustainability, tokenomics, architecture, and who builds the future of derivatives on-chain.
Let’s break down how they stack up and what could happen going forward.
Hyperliquid’s Legacy
👉 For much of 2024–mid-2025, Hyperliquid dominated the decentralised perp space with 70-80%+ share in some metrics.
👉 It sustained high open interest and deeper liquidity, factors that tend to stick around rather than fluctuate with hype.
Aster’s Meteoric Rise
👉 Aster has overtaken Hyperliquid in raw volume. This new Hyperliquid challenger has, over recent weeks, logged greater weekly volume and revenue, highlighting its meteoric ascent.
👉 In September, decentralised perp volume across platforms topped $1tn, with Aster leading in share.
👉 But volume alone isn’t the whole picture. Aster’s volume-to-open-interest ratio appears quite elevated, suggesting a lot of turnover or incentive-driven trades.
So: Aster now leads in headline volume, but Hyperliquid still holds the edge in capital commitment (open interest) and arguably sustainable depth.
2. Architecture & Trade Design
Hyperliquid’s Approach
👉 Hyperliquid runs a custom Layer-1 with its own consensus and matching engine optimised for speed.
👉 It uses an on-chain orderbook model (HyperCore) rather than AMM-style trading, enabling pro-grade order types, price precision, and deep books.
👉 It emphasises low-latency, sub-second finality to ensure trading feels as close to centralised exchanges, the most commonly used places for crypto perps trading.
Aster’s Innovations
👉 Aster offers dual-mode interfaces: a simpler “Simple Mode” for retail-like users and Pro Mode with full orderbook control.
👉 It supports hidden orders (for stealth / MEV mitigation) and yield-bearing collateral, allowing users to earn while their assets back margin.
👉 Aster is multi-chain, bringing in users from BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, etc.
👉 Its leverage is aggressive: up to 1001× in Simple Mode, though this comes with a massively elevated risk.
In short, Hyperliquid builds from the ground up with performance scalability as core, while Aster layers user-centric features, cross-chain reach, and aggressive incentives to attract liquidity quickly.
3. Tokenomics & Incentive Strategy
Hyperliquid’s Model
👉 Hyperliquid leans toward sustainability: tokenomics involve fee-to-buybacks, governance, and deflationary pressure.
👉 Its reward mechanisms aim more at aligning long-term users than blazing short-term hype.
Aster’s Model
👉 Aster uses heavy airdrops, reward programs, and “Trade & Earn” mechanics to rapidly bootstrap volume.
👉 Over 50%+ of its token supply is said to be distributed via incentives.
👉 The risk: once incentives fade, retaining volume and liquidity becomes harder unless real product value sustains usage.
Thus, Aster is playing the “growth now, utility later” approach; Hyperliquid is more conservative but bets on long-term retention.
4. Liquidity, Assets, & Market Depth
👉 Hyperliquid supports 130+ perpetual markets, deep liquidity across BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.
👉 Aster is still catching up in breadth; while it supports stock perps (e.g. AAPL, TSLA), its crypto pair coverage is narrower.
👉 In September, Hyperliquid volume was ~$280bn while Aster pushed to ~$493bn (or ~$420bn in some reports).
👉 But Hyperliquid’s open interest remains far higher than Aster’s, meaning capital-backed bets stay anchored there.
So for large traders needing deep books and sustainment, Hyperliquid still holds the advantage, whereas Aster is excellent for high-turnover flows and new capital.
5. Risks & Sustainability
Aster risks:
👉 Reliance on incentive-driven volume may lead to collapse once rewards fade.
👉 High leverage (1001×) invites blowups and liquidity drain.
👉 Token centralisation: early reports suggest 96% of ASTER tokens are held in a few wallets, which raises governance concerns.
👉 Wash trading: the volume-to-open-interest ratio suggests a portion of volume may be artificial.
Hyperliquid risks:
👉 Higher infrastructure costs for maintaining a custom L1 + matching engine.
👉 Scaling pressure: as more assets and derivatives get added, complexity grows.
👉 Token growth is slower, which can make it look less exciting to capital chasing yield.
6. What’s Next: Scenarios to Watch
👉 Aster sustainability test: Will volume hold when incentives scale back? If yes, Aster could maintain a solid portion of the perp DEX market.
👉 Hyperliquid’s ecosystem expansion: It’s pushing beyond just perps, with messaging around spot, lending, stablecoins, and a broader DeFi stack. Fear will be over-reliance on perps.
👉 Interoperability & chain strategies: Aster’s multi-chain approach could draw users away from single-chain protocols.
👉 Regulation & compliance: How both platforms handle derivatives regulation (CFTC, SEC, MiCA) might tilt trust and institutional inflows.
✅ Verdict
Today, Aster has taken the spotlight in terms of volume and hype growth. But Hyperliquid still retains structural advantages: deeper liquidity, higher open interest, proven infrastructure, and more measured tokenomics.
If Aster can transition from incentive-fueled volume to sustainable usage (with sticking liquidity and real capital commitment), it could permanently shift the derivatives landscape. But that’s not guaranteed, the survival of governance, capitalisation, and architectural robustness will decide who ends up the dominant perp DEX.
‘Uptober’ Still on Track Despite $19bn Liquidation, Say Analysts
Despite the largest liquidation in crypto history, analysts say “Uptober” remains intact. Bitcoin’s mid-month rally pattern, easing macro conditions, and liquidity recovery could fuel another leg up for crypto markets
TLDR:
💥 Despite the largest liquidation event in crypto history, analysts say October’s bullish trend, dubbed “Uptober”, remains intact.
💬“The markets are still holding on, which honestly feels like a small miracle,”said crypto podcaster Scott Melker.
📊 The crypto market cap rebounded to $4tn after the crash, though Bitcoin failed to maintain momentum above $111,000.
📈 Experts argue the sell-off was structural, not systemic, and that liquidity, easing policies, and seasonality will continue to drive markets higher.
🪙 Historically, most of Bitcoin’s October gains occur after the 15th, leaving room for a potential second-half rally.
Analysts See Structural Reset, Not the End of the Bull
Even after last week’s historic $19bn liquidation, analysts maintain that the broader crypto bull cycle remains on track.
“After the largest liquidation in crypto history, I expected October to be deep in the red,” said Scott Melker, host of The Wolf of All Streets podcast.
“The markets are still holding on, which honestly feels like a small miracle. I don’t think we’re entering a bear market.”
The total crypto market capitalisation rebounded to $4tn following the flash crash but has since cooled slightly, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading below $111,000 as of Tuesday.
Melker said the crash didn’t resemble previous cycles like 2017’s ICO mania, 2021’s China mining ban, or the FTX collapse, noting that it was “purely structural.”
“This was the kind of event that forces everyone to stop, reprice risk, and rethink what’s actually possible, and broken, in this market,”he added.
Volatility Persists, but Pessimism Is Overdone
According to HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun, the path toward the cycle top will remain volatile, but that doesn’t imply a broader downturn.
“Following last weekend’s aggressive deleveraging, sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has yet to fully recover, and overall risk appetite remains subdued”.
He noted that headline-driven volatility is likely in the short term, but medium- to long-term trends continue to favour risk assets.
“Policy easing, de-escalation of tensions, and liquidity repair should remain the dominant themes,”Sun said.“Near-term volatility is to be expected, but excessive pessimism is unwarranted.”
Historical Patterns Support Uptober Rally
October has earned its “Uptober” nickname for good reason. Bitcoin has finished the month in the green 10 of the past 12 years, according to CoinGlass.
While Bitcoin is currently down 0.6% month-to-date, history shows that the majority of gains tend to occur after mid-October.
In recent years, Bitcoin’s second-half October surges included:
📈 +16% in 2024
📈 +29% in 2023
📈 +18% in 2020
“Investors aren’t panicking, they’re reallocating,”Melker said.“If gold can rally that hard, imagine what happens when capital starts rotating back into Bitcoin.”
Macro Factors Turning Favourable
Market sentiment may also be buoyed by cooling geopolitical tensions and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end.
A White House official confirmed that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet to discuss tariffs, easing fears of a prolonged trade conflict.
“Trade conflict is not a zero-sum game; both parties ultimately seek larger shares of the gains,”said Sun.“The eventual outcome is likely to be more moderate than current sentiment implies.”
Meanwhile, with interest rate cuts, dollar debasement, and renewed institutional inflows, analysts say the broader setup for risk assets, including crypto, remains firmly bullish.
“The path is volatile, but the direction is clear,”said one institutional trader.“Uptober isn’t over, it may just be warming up.”
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