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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 163
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 163
Gm! As volatility cools and traders regroup, attention now shifts to whether the market can rebuild confidence - or if another wave of uncertainty lies ahead.
Gold and silver continue to steal headlines, both mirroring historic patterns that hint at explosive potential, while Ethereum remains in consolidation following the recent washout. The Fear & Greed Index has slumped into Extreme Fear, suggesting opportunity for the brave, but also warning that sentiment remains fragile.
With CPI data due Friday and major analysts divided, from Peter Brandt’s $60K warning to Arthur Hayes’ $250K dream - the stage is set for another pivotal week across markets. 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Eyes The Golden Elevator
While bitcoin continues to consolidate on the higher time frame, the fast-approaching end to October and shift into November may see it attempt a move in which its elder (Gold) has taken.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is at a major point on the higher time frame, testing demand in what is a colossal pivot.
As it stands, this general area is a clean read for bitcoin to foster a move back towards the highs, as it is nothing more than a wide trading range.
The trouble for bitcoin comes should it break below, with the $92,000 area showing several reasons as to why a visit there makes sense.
However, we are in Q4, which is famously bull season, so there is no reason to look for that yet and looking upwards can be the focus.
Gold
Gold is pulling a very similar move as it did in the 2000’s where it saw an initial run-up followed by a lengthy consolidation, which ultimately ended with a blow-off rally.
As seen in the image, the move of 2019 onwards is mirroring this pattern very well thus far.
It is key to remember that no two moves are the same, so there are obvious differences, but it is fascinating to observe the rhyme in the price this time around.
Still, gold may have much higher to run yet.
Silver
Silver reached an all-time high for the first time in almost 15 years, marking a historic moment.
Thus far, the monthly candle is showing signs of seller absorption and is currently putting in a swing failure pattern.
However, the long-term fib extension suggests a move towards $70 is possible, while more appetite for risk-off assets could spur it on towards $100 or more.
Ethereum
Crypto’s version of silver in Ethereum is behaving exactly like bitcoin, and in a phase of consolidation, waiting for a more clear direction of trend.
In reality, not much has changed for the market since the mass liquidation event earlier in the month. Maximum risk/reward for ETH comes with filling in the wick and testing demand lower.
While upside levels are waiting to be tested.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped into Extreme Fear, scoring 25.
Despite bitcoin’s recovery from the lows of last week, sentiment has yet to show signs that the market is confident of a potential full return to the highs after Monday’s move was retraced.
The closer bitcoin gets to $120,000, the higher confidence likely gets.
Important Dates
Friday 24 October, 12:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 3.1%, with the previous data lower at 2.9%.
Gainers
Losers
Kadena Blockchain Shuts Down Operations, Token Crashes 60% in 90 Minutes
Kadena, the once-promising enterprise blockchain founded by former JPMorgan and SEC leaders, has shut down its operations, citing market conditions. The KDA token crashed 60% in 90 minutes, though miners will keep the network running.
TLDR:
🛑 Kadena, the layer-1 blockchain launched in 2016, has ceased all business operations and network maintenance, citing “market conditions.”
📉 The Kadena (KDA) token plunged 60% within 90 minutes following the announcement.
💬 Despite the shutdown, independent validators will continue to operate the proof-of-work network.
🔒 The project still plans to decide how to handle over 83 million unlocked KDA tokens due in 2029.
Kadena Calls It Quits
In an unexpected announcement on Tuesday, Kadena, once touted as the“blockchain for business,”said it is shutting down operations effective immediately after failing to maintain financial and market viability.
“We are no longer able to continue business operations and will be ceasing all business activity and active maintenance of the Kadena blockchain immediately,”the project said in a statement on X.
The KDA token collapsed 60% in just 90 minutes, dropping its market capitalisation from over $70m to around $30.9m, according to CoinGecko data.
“We are tremendously grateful to everybody who has participated in this journey with us,”the Kadena team added.“We regret that because of market conditions, we are unable to continue to promote and support the adoption of this unique decentralised offering.”
🧩 A Veteran-Led Blockchain With Lofty Ambitions
Founded in 2016 by Stuart Popejoy and Will Martino, Kadena was designed to merge enterprise-grade scalability with decentralisation.
👉 Popejoy previously led JPMorgan’s Blockchain Center of Excellence.
👉 Martino served as tech lead for the SEC’s cryptocurrency steering committee before dedicating his efforts to Kadena full-time.
At its peak in November 2021, Kadena reached a $4bn valuation, fueled by excitement around its proof-of-work smart contract architecture.
However, despite its technical pedigree, Kadena struggled to build a sustainable ecosystem or achieve the developer traction seen by rivals like Ethereum and Solana.
“This underscores the brutal reality of today’s blockchain market,”said one analyst.“Without consistent user growth or DeFi adoption, even technically sound projects are burning out.”
⚙️ Network Will Remain Online - For Now
Kadena clarified that while the company is shutting down, the blockchain itself will remain operational through independent miners and node operators.
“The Kadena blockchain is not owned or operated by the company,”it explained.“As a decentralised proof-of-work network, it continues to run via independent validators and miners.”
The team said it will release a new binary to ensure network continuity and encourage node operators to upgrade.
💰 What Happens to KDA Tokens?
The Kadena team still must decide how to manage its 83.7m KDA tokens scheduled for release in November 2029.
Additionally, 566m KDA remain reserved for mining rewards until the year 2139, meaning mining can technically continue despite the project’s operational shutdown.
The team said it plans to consult the community on the distribution of future tokens.
📉 Kadena’s Fall, A Cautionary Tale
Kadena’s collapse serves as another warning sign for smaller layer-1 projects struggling to stay relevant in a post-Ethereum, post-Solana landscape dominated by deep liquidity and institutional adoption.
“Building a blockchain isn’t enough anymore,”said one venture analyst.“Survival now depends on traction, ecosystem growth, and sustained user demand.”
With Kadena’s founders stepping back and its token down over 99% from its 2021 highs, the project’s once-bright promise has officially come to an end.
Quantum Computing Could Awaken Lost Bitcoin, But at What Cost?
Quantum computers could one day break Bitcoin’s cryptography and revive millions of lost coins. Here’s why experts say the threat is real, and how developers are racing to defend the world’s largest digital asset.
TLDR:
💥 Quantum computers could one day crack Bitcoin’s cryptography, exposing old wallets and potentially reviving up to 3.7m “lost” BTC.
🔐 The threat lies in Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), vulnerable to Shor’s quantum algorithm.
⏳ Experts agree we’re decades away from quantum machines powerful enough to break ECDSA, but developers are already preparing defences.
🧩 A sudden quantum breakthrough could reshape Bitcoin’s scarcity, raise ethical questions, and force a protocol upgrade.
Quantum Threats and Bitcoin’s Core Weakness
Quantum computers operate on qubits, enabling them to perform calculations exponentially faster than traditional machines.
Their main crypto-breaking potential lies in Shor’s algorithm, which can factor large numbers efficiently, the exact process securing Bitcoin’s ECDSA cryptography.
That means, in theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could derive a private key from a public key and take control of the associated Bitcoin.
Many older Bitcoin addresses, especially P2PK and P2PKH formats used in Bitcoin’s early years, expose public keys directly on the blockchain. Those wallets, which hold millions of dormant BTC, would be prime targets once quantum computers become powerful enough.
Lost Coins Could Return
Estimates suggest between 2.3 and 3.7 million BTC have been lost forever. But “forever” could change.
If quantum computers advance faster than expected, these coins might become retrievable, sparking debates over ownership, legality, and market stability.
“It’s not just about hacking Bitcoin,”said one analyst.“It’s about rewriting who owns the world’s rarest digital asset.”
However, experts caution that reviving old wallets would flood supply, undermining Bitcoin’s 21-million cap scarcity narrative, a cornerstone of its value proposition.
The Timeline: Not Tomorrow, But Sooner Than You Think
Most researchers agree that true quantum decryption capability is decades away. Even today’s leading quantum processors can handle only hundreds of qubits, far below the millions needed to threaten Bitcoin.
Still, Bitcoin developers are preparing. Efforts include:
🧠Post-quantum cryptography (PQC): new algorithms resistant to quantum attacks.
🛠️Quantum-Resistant Asset Mapping Protocol (QRAMP): a proposed framework for mapping old addresses to new, quantum-safe ones.
🚫Address hygiene: users can mitigate exposure simply by not reusing addresses and adopting Taproot or SegWit, which hide public keys until spending.
What Happens If Quantum Wins?
A sudden breakthrough could trigger the ultimate Bitcoin stress test.
If a quantum entity suddenly seized thousands of early wallets, the supply shock could erode market confidence overnight. Regulators and developers might push for emergency forks or coordinated burns of compromised coins.
The question then becomes moral as much as technical:
Should coins lost by negligence (or time) be reclaimed by force?
The Bottom Line
Quantum computing remains a distant threat, but an inevitable one. While the timeline is uncertain, Bitcoin’s resilience depends on anticipating the unthinkable before it arrives.
“When quantum machines finally arrive,”one researcher wrote,“they won’t just change Bitcoin. They’ll redefine trust itself.”
Bitcoin May Mirror 1970s Soybean Crash, But Bulls See $250k
Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin could mirror the 1970s soybean crash, predicting a 50% plunge. Yet bulls like Arthur Hayes and Michaël van de Poppe say BTC still has one more rally left, possibly toward $250,000.
TLDR:
⚠️ Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin’s chart resembles the soybean market of the 1970s, which topped before a 50% crash.
📊 Brandt warns BTC could plunge toward $60,000 if the“broadening top”pattern plays out.
💪 Other analysts, including Arthur Hayes and Michaël van de Poppe, remain bullish, expecting a final leg up to$250,000.
😨 Sentiment has sunk to“Extreme Fear”levels after Trump’s tariff scare and record liquidations.
Peter Brandt Draws 1970s Parallels
Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a major correction, likening the current price pattern to a“broadening top”seen in the soybean market nearly 50 years ago.
“Bitcoin is forming a rare broadening top on the charts. This pattern is famous for tops,” Brandt stated.“In the 1970s, soybeans formed such a top, then declined 50% in value.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at around $107,870, down over 5% in the past 30 days.
Brandt warned that if the same structure repeats, Bitcoin could face a retracement as deep as $60,000, erasing much of its 2025 bull run.
📉 “The Final Thrust May Never Come”
The trader added that Bitcoin’s much-anticipated “final pump”, a euphoric blow-off top many bulls have been waiting for, may not materialise at all this cycle.
“If history rhymes, the big Bitcoin pump everyone’s waiting for may never come,”he said.
Brandt also noted that such a downturn would hit corporate Bitcoin holders particularly hard; including Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), whose stock has fallen more than 10% in the past month as BTC-treasury NAVs decline.
🟩 Bulls See One More Major Rally Coming
Despite Brandt’s warning, many industry analysts still see room for upside.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could surge as high as $250,000 before this cycle ends, while others point to strong seasonal performance in Q4.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s most profitable, with an average return of 78.49%, according to data from CoinGlass.
“Bitcoin has one more thrust left in it, and Q4 could be the setup,”said an unnamed market analyst.
😨 Sentiment Slips Into “Extreme Fear”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 25 this week, signaling “ Extreme Fear”, after the recent tariff-driven market rout that followed President Donald Trump’s trade comments.
Trader AlphaBTC said BTC must“hold the recent higher lows”and attempt another breakout above its monthly open, where it faced rejection earlier this week.
“Bitcoin really needs to hold here… and have another attempt at the monthly open,”AlphaBTC said.
🪙 Bulls Say Macro Tailwinds Could Reverse the Mood
21Shares’ David Hernandez believes that Bitcoin’s“opportunity window”could reopen soon if inflation data improves or the“immaculate disinflation”trend continues in the United States.
“Bitcoin is coiled and ready to spring upward,”Hernandez said.
Meanwhile, MN Trading Capital’s Michaël van de Poppe pointed to gold’s recent 5.5% drop as a possible signal that capital rotation back into Bitcoin and altcoins has begun.
“The rotation is starting — liquidity always finds risk,”van de Poppe said.
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