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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 167
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 167
Gm! Bitcoin is teetering on the edge, down 30% from its $126k peak and now probing the $89.5k–$91k grey zone - that March-May S/R flip that's held as sacred support. Selling's been relentless these past two weeks, bounces fading fast, but exhaustion feels near.
ETH eyes $3k as its bounce floor, SOL retests two-year demand around $135. Extreme Fear grips the market (Index at 11), yet history whispers reversals from these depths.
The bulls are clinging to the structure: no break below $88k keeps the uptrend alive, with $100k+ the true reclaim target. Conversely the bears smell blood if liquidity sweeps lower. ETF inflows persist quietly, but macro looms large - FOMC minutes tomorrow could hint at rate relief, NFP Thursday eyes 50k jobs added, and Friday's PMIs (Mfg 52.5, Svcs 54.8) gauge economic pulse.
Sentiment's as sour as it gets; one spark, and shorts squeeze hard. Pivot point: hold here, and November flips bullish. Let’s dive in 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Awaits Resolution
Bitcoin is at a pivotal point for whether this dip becomes a routine pullback or something more serious.
Bitcoin
With the unfolding price action on bitcoin over the last two weeks, it is now obvious where momentum began to roll over and selling pressure took hold of the market.
Since then, bounces have been sold and bitcoin has steadily got more aggressive with its sell-offs.
However, at some point, selling becomes exhausted and the trend shifts.
Wider Outlook
Zooming out to the daily, the current position of bitcoin becomes more clear. It has dropped almost 30% from the all-time high, which is typically the magic number before a reversal.
In addition, bitcoin has swept the build-up of liquidity below $91,000 and has come into the S/R region from back in March to May.
From here, bitcoin can range and trade. As long as it doesn't drop below the grey zone, the structure remains strong. Ultimately, it eventually needs to regain above $100,000.
Ethereum
Ethereum has also come into a vital zone around $3,000. This could also be the final drop zone before we see a bounce on ETH.
Back up to $3,600 appears a world away but in reality, it can come very quickly when momentum turns and shorts begin to get squeezed.
The vital zone will be a regain of $3,700 to push on above $4,000, with a worst-case scenario of $2,500 below.
Solana
Solana has retested its very high time frame demand zone. This has held for almost two years and thus acted as the point where SOL becomes good value for buyers.
As long as this holds, a bounce towards $200 is on the cards and can come quicker than most think at this moment in time.
Still, it must hold and cannot break or SOL could drop below $100. If bitcoin turns strongly bullish again, the high time frame supply region of $250 is also a possibility.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is slumped into Extreme Fear, down towards the tail end of the whole Index as it scores just 11.
This demonstrates the concerns within investor sentiment after bitcoin has now dropped below $90,000.
From here, sentiment can’t get much worse in terms of the Index, but price could cascade further down or any revival in the price would likely see the mood shift up quickly.
Important Dates
Wednesday 19 November, 18:00 UTC - FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting in June will be released. This will provide a deeper insight into what was discussed in the meeting, alongside the tone of the comments.
The market will use the minutes as a marker leading up to the next FOMC meeting.
Thursday 20 November, 13:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 50,000, with the previous data at 22,000.
Friday 21 November, 14:45 UTC - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which measures the manufacturing industry. The data is a crucial measurement of the US economy, as it is a significant portion of the revenue for large businesses.
The data is forecasted at 52.5.
Friday 21 November, 14:45 UTC- S&P Global Services PMI
S&P Global also releases a second piece of data, the services PMI data, which measures the service industry. The data is another factor alluding to the economy’s strength, as it makes up much of the GDP alongside manufacturing.
The data is forecasted at 54.8.
Gainers
Losers
Cardano Whale Accidentally Burns $6M in ADA After Swapping Into an Illiquid Stablecoin Pool
A dormant Cardano wallet accidentally wiped out over $6m by swapping 14.4m ADA into an illiquid USDA pool, highlighting the risks of low-liquidity DeFi trading.
TL;DR
😱 A long-term Cardano holder lost $6.05m by swapping 14.4M ADA into a low-liquidity USDA pool.
🤔 The wallet had been dormant since 2020 and made a tiny test swap moments before the disastrous trade.
🏊 The illiquid pool caused extreme price slippage, sending USDA briefly to $1.26.
🫵 Analysts suspect a fat-finger mistake, as the trader had never held USDA before.
💦 The incident underscores the danger of large trades in shallow liquidity pools — even for veteran holders.
Cardano User Accidentally Torches $6m in One of the Year’s Worst Fat-Finger Trades
A dormant Cardano wallet sprang to life over the weekend, only to instantly lose more than $6m in a catastrophic DeFi mistake.
According to blockchain investigator ZachXBT,the user swapped 14.4m ADA (worth $6.9m) into just $847,695 USDA, a stablecoin with barely $10.6m in market cap. The extreme imbalance caused a staggering $6.05m loss.
The swap’s source wallet, “addr…4x534,” hadn’t moved in more than five years before suddenly executing a small test trade — and then immediately pulling the trigger on the multimillion-dollar transaction.
A Perfect Example of Why Illiquid Pools Are Dangerous
The trade completely blew out the USDA pool’s liquidity, sending the token spiking to $1.26 before crashing back toward $1.04, per CoinGecko.
Large swaps in shallow pools cause dramatic slippage, meaning the trader received far less stablecoin than expected. The ADA price inside the pool effectively collapsed, while USDA’s price briefly surged due to the imbalance.
This is textbook DeFi risk, one that experienced traders avoid at all costs.
Was It a Fat-Finger Mistake?
There is no clear indication that the user intended to buy USDA.
Blockchain analysis shows:
👉 The trader had never previously held USDA
👉 The stablecoin is obscure and thinly traded
👉 The user performed a tiny test swap 33 seconds earlier
👉 The wallet had not been active since September 2020
All signs point to a likely fat-finger error or mistaken ticker selection, similar to other high-profile misfires in crypto.
Just last month, Paxos accidentally minted 300 trillion PYUSD, briefly shocking on-chain observers before reversing it within minutes.
The Takeaway
This is one of the most expensive user errors in Cardano’s history, a painful reminder that:
🔹Check liquidity before making swaps
🔹Use routing aggregators to avoid bad pools
🔹Confirm the correct token ticker
🔹Never push large orders into shallow markets
Even OG wallets aren’t immune to one bad click.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which Asset Shines During Christmas?
Bitcoin and gold both carry reputations as stores of value, but they behave very differently during the traditional year-end “Christmas rally.” Here’s how each asset typically performs and what macro forces will shape this year’s move.
TLDR
🧑🎄 The Christmas rally is a seasonal trend where markets often rise from late December into early January.
🔑 Gold sees steady year-end demand from jewellery, central banks, and institutional risk management, but rarely makes explosive moves.
📊 Bitcoin historically delivers sharper Q4 performance and reacts more intensely to liquidity, inflation, and rate cuts.
🤔 This year’s setup: falling interest rates, 3% inflation, and thin liquidity could favour Bitcoin over gold, but macro shocks can flip the script.
The Christmas Rally: A Seasonal Push for Risk and Safe-Haven Assets
The “Christmas rally,” sometimes called the Santa Claus rally, refers to the tendency for markets to drift higher during the final weeks of December and into early January.
Cheerful sentiment, year-end portfolio rebalancing, thinner liquidity, and seasonal consumer activity all play a part.
While the pattern began in traditional markets, both gold and Bitcoin now show their own December behaviour, often moving for very different reasons.
Why Gold Remains the Classic Store of Value
Gold has served as humanity’s safe haven for centuries, a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and currency debasement.
Every Q4, gold typically sees:
💍 Strong jewellery demand in China and India
🏦 Central bank accumulation
💥 Institutional de-risking and portfolio adjustments
But gold rarely produces fireworks during Christmas. Instead, it climbs steadily when recession fears rise or markets look shaky.
Gold is slow, reliable, physical, and institutional. Bitcoin is none of those things.
Bitcoin: Digital Gold With Explosive Holiday Moves
Bitcoin’s performance has dramatically shifted since 2022. From trading near $16,000 to breaking $100,000+ in 2024 and hitting $125,000 in 2025, the market has embraced it as a digital store of value.
What separates Bitcoin from gold during the holidays?
🗓️ Bitcoin trades 24/7, even during Christmas.
🧢 Its supply is capped at 21 million.
⚔️ It reacts violently to liquidity shifts.
💥 Retail investors play a large role, especially during holidays.
Bitcoin has historically shown a stronger Q4 performance than gold, especially when liquidity flows in or inflation narratives intensify.
Macro Forces That Will Shape This Year’s Christmas Rally
The seasonal trend only works when macro conditions allow it, and this year’s backdrop is unusually supportive.
➤ Rate Cuts Are Fuel
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice this year, bringing the target to 3.75%–4.00%, the lowest borrowing costs since 2022. Lower rates weaken the dollar, lift risk appetite, and historically benefit Bitcoin more than gold.
➤ Inflation Stays at 3%
Higher inflation typically boosts interest in both Bitcoin and gold, but Bitcoin tends to react faster because of its reflexive retail-driven flows.
➤ Thin Holiday Liquidity
Gold handles thin liquidity well, slow and steady. Bitcoin, however, can rip or dump dramatically on relatively small inflows. Even small ETF flows can move the market during Christmas.
When Each Asset Outperformed: Two Case Studies
⭐ Case Study 1: Bitcoin Dominates (2020)
During the pandemic stimulus era, liquidity flooded the system. Gold rallied early, but Bitcoin exploded late in the year, closing 2020 near all-time highs (~$29K).
When liquidity is abundant → Bitcoin shines.
⭐ Case Study 2: Gold Holds Strong (2021–2022)
When inflation spiked and global central banks raised rates aggressively, risk assets tanked, including Bitcoin. Gold stayed stable and sometimes gained as investors fled to safety.
When rates rise and risk sentiment collapses → gold outperforms.
Bottom Line
Both gold and Bitcoin can benefit from the Christmas rally, but they thrive under different conditions.
This year’s mix of rate cuts, steady inflation, and thin liquidity leans towardBitcoin outperforming, but gold remains the more stable hedge if macro shocks hit.
Bitcoin ETFs Slip Into the Red as Price Drops Below Average Cost Basis
Bitcoin’s sharp correction has pushed the average US spot Bitcoin ETF investor underwater for the first time, triggering sustained outflows as macro headwinds and tightening liquidity weigh on crypto markets.
TL;DR
😟 Bitcoin’s fall below $89,600 pushed theaverageUS spot BTC ETF investor into loss territory for the first time.
📊 ETFs saw five straight days of outflows, totalling billions across Bitcoin and Ether products.
📈 Solana ETFs continue to attract capital, extending an inflow streak despite broader market weakness.
💥 Analysts say ETF investors are long-term allocators unlikely to panic-sell, but macro conditions still dictate short-term flows.
⚡️ Clear signs of disinflation and Fed easing will be needed for flows to turn positive again.
Bitcoin ETF Investors Fall Underwater for the First Time
Bitcoin’s rapid pullback has finally tipped the average US spot Bitcoin ETF investor into the red, a first since the products launched earlier this year.
Glassnode analyst Sean Rose told Bloomberg that the flow-weighted cost basis across all US BTC ETFs as bitcoin dropped to $89,600. This latest drop means the majority of ETF buyers are officially underwater.
Some early adopters, those who entered in the $40,000–$70,000 range, remain comfortably in profit. But newer entrants, particularly those buying in during late-cycle enthusiasm, are now holding losses.
Still, analysts say this isn’t the type of crowd to panic.
“Most ETF holders are long-term allocators, so being underwater doesn’t trigger quick exits,”Vincent Liu, CIO, Kronos Research
Liu added that short-term direction is dictated almost entirely by macro conditions and liquidity, not ETF sentiment.
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Extend Multi-Day Outflow Streak
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $254.6m in outflows on Monday, marking the fifth straight day of redemptions:
📉IBIT (BlackRock):–$145.6m
📉FBTC (Fidelity):–$12m
📉ARKB:–$29.7m
📉BITB:–$9.5m
The week prior saw even heavier bleeding, including an $866.7m outflow day, the second-largest on record.
Ether ETFs faced similar pressure, with $182.7m withdrawn on Monday alone. BlackRock’s ETHA bore the brunt, losing $193m in a single session.
Liu says the flows will flip only when macro conditions stabilise:
“Clear disinflation, softening labour without breaking, and central bank guidance toward easing… that’s when liquidity expectations improve, and flows rotate back.”
Solana ETFs Keep Defying the Market
While Bitcoin and Ether ETFs bleed, Solana products continue to stand out.
On Monday:
💰Bitwise BSOL: +$7.3m
💰Grayscale GSOL: +$0.9m
Solana ETFs have recorded positive inflows every day since launching in late October, accumulating nearly $390m. The continued interest contrasts sharply with outflows across nearly all other digital asset ETFs.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s drop below the ETF cost basis marks a psychological turning point, but not necessarily a structural one.
ETF holders remain long-term allocators, yet macro conditions and liquidity constraints are still steering short-term flows.
Once the Fed’s direction becomes clearer and disinflation resumes, analysts expect ETF demand to return. Until then, capital continues rotating, and Solana remains the current winner.
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