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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 170
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 170
GM! Bitcoin starts the week looking tired… again 😴
The market continues to stick to its weird limbo.
Buyers aren’t stepping up, sellers aren’t backing down, and momentum is drifting into the final stretch of the year.
The real question now…
Is Bitcoin gearing up for a deeper pullback, or are we just seeing the calm before one last December squeeze?
Sentiment’s still cautious, volatility is drying up, and everyone’s waiting for someone else to make the first move.
Catch the full rundown in today’s newsletter. 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Ticking Clock
Bitcoin continues to consolidate, but with FOMC on Wednesday, time is ticking before it makes it’s next move.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has yet to provide a breakout from the range it has built between $84,00 - $93,000.
The orange lines represent low time frame levels of interest, while the white lines show higher time frame key points.
From here, the route for bitcoin up or down is fairly easy. If it breaks over $94,000 then a trip towards $96,500 will be like a magnet, and so on for the further levels.
To the downside, it has found good demand at $84,000, while a test of the low may also occur.
CME Gap
Bitcoin’s CME gap is still open down to $89,425 and did not close yesterday. On the drop, it managed to close a very small part of it, but did not close it fully.
This provides a potential target for bitcoin to be driven to over the next two days, with the potential to fill it and reverse or drop lower.
Ethereum
Ethereum is poised for a breakout more so than bitcoin as it stands. ETH is grinding up close to where the top of this range is, and is ready for another test.
If it managed to break above, then a run to $3,600 should be straightforward for ETH. From there, it may make a rally to $4,000 or drop back down.
Still, like bitcoin, there is danger of another drop and that zone is $2,400 for the ultimate do-or-die test.
ETH/BTC
Ethereum is gaining strength over bitcoin as reflected in ETH/BTC.
It is steadily grinding up on the daily, showcasing the recent strength it has gained. But this will come to a more important reality if this initial strength means it makes a rally into 0.041.
This zone is a key high time frame region and could unlock an abundance of ETH strength if it gets above, igniting altcoins.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index scores 22 and remains within Extreme Fear. This represents zero change in investor sentiment while bitcoin remains close to $90,000.
However, a rally towards $100,000 would certainly lift investor’s spirits.
FOMC
This week sees the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and with it comes the potential (and expectancy) of rate cuts. The previous two meetings saw a 25bp cut to the official Federal funds rate, bringing it down from 4.50% to the current 4% figure, with 3.75% now firmly in sight. Traders are pricing in an 87.2% chance at the time of writing.
Rate Cut Probability - CME Group
However, the real focus will be on the committee and the comments from Powell himself, as many view this as a ‘Hawkish cut’, given the persistently ‘sticky’ inflation. The decision comes amidst a backdrop of a labour market which is rapidly slowing, consumer confidence hitting long unseen lows, and businesses closing at pace.
Last meeting we saw some disagreements among the committee, which indicates opinions are beginning to differ, which could see a slowing of the rate of future cuts, with analysts expecting three or more dissenting votes.
The US Government shutdown prevented the release of some key data points, and led the Fed to go in blind to this showdown. This may see the dot plot (the map of projected future cuts) to show only two 25bp cuts for 2026, which may fall short of the expectations of traders.
A hawkish fed could provide a bearish tone for markets, leading to a sell off in equities and risk assets, with crypto very much in the latter. We would likely see a pushup in the DXY, which after retreating has landed on a level of support.
Dollar Index DXY - TradingView
On the other side, a dovish fed could signal a surge in risk on assets, with money flowing out of the dollar and into tech, commodities and crypto.
Check out the Crypto Saving Expert website for our full Macro Report and coverage of the FOMC
Gainers
Losers
Fed’s Final 2025 Meeting Looms: Markets Brace for a Possible Rate Cut
Markets expect an 87% chance of a December Fed rate cut as crypto traders brace for volatility heading into 2026.
TL;DR
👀The Fed’s final FOMC meeting of 2025 happens Dec. 9–10, with a policy statement on Dec. 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
✂️Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, bringing rates to 3.50%–3.75%.
💥The meeting will also confirm the end of quantitative tightening (QT) as of Dec. 1.
📈Crypto markets could see 20–30% volatility spikes, depending on Powell’s tone.
🚀A dovish cut could push BTC toward $95k–$100k, while a hawkish pause risks a dip to $87k–$90k.
Final Fed Meeting of 2025 Set to Shape Early 2026 Market Sentiment
The Federal Reserve’s final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year is only days away, and markets across equities, bonds and crypto are positioning for what could be one of the most influential decisions heading into 2026.
The meeting will run Dec. 9–10, with:
🧾Policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 10,
🗯️Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.,
💥And meeting minutes published on Jan. 8, 2026.
This is also the final meeting that includes the Summary of Economic Projections, which updates the Fed’s forecasts for inflation, growth, unemployment and the future path of interest rates.
Markets Expect a 25 bps Cut, But the Fed Is Split
The market is overwhelmingly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut, currently priced at 87.2% probability, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%.
The current rate (after the October cut): 3.75%–4.00%
But policymakers aren’t fully aligned. Conflicting economic signals, falling inflation but resilient GDP growth, have created internal disagreement about whether easing policy now risks reigniting price pressures.
Analysts will be watching the dot plot carefully. If falling inflation continues, the Fed could signal up to 50 bps of additional cuts in 2026.
End of Quantitative Tightening Marks a Major Liquidity Shift
The December meeting will also formally confirm that quantitative tightening ended on Dec. 1, bringing a halt to the Fed’s previous pace of reducing its balance sheet by $95bn per month.
The end of QT means:
💰Less Treasury runoff,
🫗Slower liquidity drain,
🤔Mildly looser financial conditions heading into 2026.
This alone could support risk assets, particularly crypto, which often react strongly to changes in liquidity.
Macro Stakes Are High Across All Asset Classes
The December FOMC meeting is always important, but this year’s carries added weight because it falls during a period of:
🌍persistent geopolitical uncertainty,
🤔uneven inflation deceleration,
🦾strong but cooling labour-market data,
🎬and heightened global rate-cut expectations.
Currency markets will reposition on policy expectations, while bond yields and equities often move sharply in the hours following Powell’s press conference.
But crypto markets may be the most sensitive of all.
Crypto Traders Brace for a Volatility Shock
Crypto remains tightly correlated to liquidity cycles.
Lower rates = more risk-taking.
Higher rates = fast deleveraging.
Here’s what analysts expect:
If the Fed cuts 25bps and stays dovish:
📈Bitcoin could push toward $95k–$100k
🍑Ethereum, Solana and major L1s may rally in lockstep
📊Liquidity-sensitive altcoins could outperform
💥Options markets price 20–30%+ volatility on the day
If the Fed pauses or sounds hawkish:
📉BTC may slide to the $87k–$90k support range
😱Alts could see accelerated drawdowns
🫗Leveraged longs risk further wipeouts
😓A deeper cooldown into January becomes likely
Crypto volatility in the 24 hours around FOMC events traditionally spikes, and current options pricing suggests this time will be no different.
Conclusion: A Meeting That Could Define Q1 2026
Whatever the Fed delivers on Dec. 10, the outcome will echo well beyond a single trading day.
A dovish cut could ignite a year-end rally, while a cautious tone may trigger a cooldown across both crypto and equities.
Either way, this meeting sets the tone for risk appetite, liquidity conditions, and market sentiment as the world enters 2026.
Crypto Investor Donates £9m to Reform UK, The Largest Living Donation in British Political History
Crypto entrepreneur Christopher Harborne donates £9m to Reform UK, the largest living political donation in Britain’s history. Here’s who he is, and what Reform stands for.
TL;DR
💰 Crypto investor Christopher Harborne has donated £9m (~$12m) to Reform UK.
💥 It’s the largest-ever donation to a UK political party by a living donor.
🤔 Harborne is an investor in Tether and Bitfinex, with long-standing ties to Nigel Farage–aligned parties.
📈Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, is polling strongly in 2025 and has leaned into pro-crypto messaging.
⚡️ Nigel Farage has pledged to establish a national Bitcoin reserve if elected.
Christopher Harborne Makes Record-Breaking Donation
Crypto entrepreneur Christopher Harborne has donated £9m to Reform UK, according to a newly published Electoral Commission filing. The contribution is being described as the largest political donation ever made by a living individual in Britain.
The only larger donation on record was £10m left in a will by Lord John Sainsbury to the Conservative Party in 2022.
Harborne’s donation was made in cash, not cryptocurrency, but his background is deeply tied to the digital asset sector.
Who Is Christopher Harborne?
Harborne is a Thailand-based entrepreneur known for:
💥 Early investments in Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer;
💥 Backing Bitfinex, one of crypto’s most influential exchanges;
💥 Extensive involvement in aviation, fintech and digital asset ventures;
💥 Financing political movements aligned with Nigel Farage.
He previously donated to the Brexit Party in 2019 (before it was renamed Reform UK) and has made contributions to the Conservatives in the past.
His new £9m injection gave Reform more funding than any other British political party during Q3 2025.
Why Reform UK Attracts Crypto Enthusiasts
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has emerged as a notable political home for pro-crypto voters. The party has:
✅ Accepted donations in cryptocurrency,
✅ Positioned itself as the party of "technological freedom,"
✅ And promised to establish a national Bitcoin reserve if it enters government.
Farage has argued that Bitcoin could bolster the UK’s financial sovereignty, a message increasingly resonant among retail crypto holders and libertarian-leaning voters.
Reform has led several polls in 2025, capitalising on Conservative Party turbulence and voter frustration with Labour’s economic policies.
What Is Reform UK?
Reform UK is the successor to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, rebranded after the UK formally exited the EU. While its original raison d’être has faded, Reform has repositioned itself as a party focused on:
Core Policies
👉 Anti-immigration / border control
👉 Low-tax, pro-business economic reforms
👉 Cutting bureaucracy and public spending
👉 Tough-on-crime positioning
👉 NHS restructuring
👉 Crypto-friendly financial policies
👉 Opposition to “woke” or identity-based politics
Political Identity
Reform UK presents itself as:
👉 Economically libertarian,
👉 Culturally conservative,
👉 Anti-establishment,
👉 And populist in tone.
Farage remains its public face and primary vote magnet.
Why Harborne’s Donation Matters
Harborne’s £9m injection could meaningfully influence the UK political landscape, because:
1️⃣ It signals rising alignment between crypto wealth and anti-establishment politics. Crypto entrepreneurs are increasingly active donors in Western democracies.
2️⃣ It gives Reform UK unprecedented financial firepower. Campaign machines matter, and Reform has often lacked funding compared to Conservatives or Labour.
3️⃣ It legitimises pro-crypto policy platforms. A large donor backing a pro-Bitcoin party attracts attention across finance and politics.
4️⃣ It positions Harborne as one of the most influential political financiers in UK history.
Conclusion
Christopher Harborne’s record-breaking £9m donation is more than a political headline, it marks a significant crossover between crypto wealth and electoral influence in the UK. With Reform UK gaining momentum and embracing pro-Bitcoin ideas, the 2025 election cycle could be the first where crypto policy meaningfully shapes national politics.
What Will Strategy Do With their Bitcoin? The Playbook Behind the World’s Largest Corporate Stack
Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, more than any public company in history. Here’s what it could realistically do with that Bitcoin, and what might force a sale.
TL;DR
😮 Strategy now holds 650,000 BTC, over 3% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.
📊 Its model depends on raising capital and converting it into BTC while keeping mNAV > 1.
🤔 CEO Phong Le says a Bitcoin sale would happen only as a “last resort” if mNAV drops below 1 and capital markets dry up.
⚡️ Any BTC sale would likely be small, controlled and targeted, not an exit.
🧑💻 The bigger question: how Strategy leverages its Bitcoin in the future, not whether it dumps it.
The Real Question: What Does a Corporation Do With 650,000 Bitcoin?
Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has spent five years transforming itself into a Bitcoin leviathan. With ~650,000 BTC on its balance sheet, it now sits atop one of the largest privately held monetary assets in modern financial history.
The firm calls itself the world’s first “Bitcoin Treasury Company,” but that raises a bigger question:
What exactly will it do with a treasury this large?
The answer depends on Strategy’s internal metrics, market structure, and what happens if its capital-raising machine ever breaks down.
Scenario 1: The Base Case, Keep Accumulating, Keep Leveraging
This is the model Strategy prefers, and the one it has executed almost flawlessly since 2020.
The engine works like this:
1️⃣ Raise capital through common stock, perpetual preferreds (STRK, STRF), and occasional convertible debt.
2️⃣ Buy more BTC with that capital.
3️⃣ Monitor both Bitcoin per share (BPS) and mNAV (market-cap-to-Bitcoin-value). Rising BPS keeps the shareholders happy, while a greater than 1 mNAV value ensures the stock trades at a premium.
When mNAV > 1, Strategy can raise capital with minimal dilution, acquire more BTC, and grow its Bitcoin per share.
If nothing breaks, this strategy continues indefinitely. The company becomes a corporate Bitcoin sink.
Scenario 2: Quiet Monetisation, Using Bitcoin, Not Selling It
If Strategy ever needs liquidity without touching its BTC, several tools exist:
1️⃣ Borrowing Against Bitcoin
Strategy could collateralise a tiny portion of its treasury with:
👉 Institutional lenders,
👉 ETFs and custody partners,
👉 Or even Bitcoin-native credit markets once they mature.
A 650,000 BTC stack gives Strategy enormous borrowing flexibility, even at conservative loan-to-value ratios.
2️⃣ Treasury operations using BTC
In the future, Strategy could:
👉 Use BTC as collateral for acquisitions,
👉 Issue BTC-backed corporate paper,
👉 Or structure preferred offerings tied directly to Bitcoin yield curves.
Nothing in Strategy’s public strategy suggests this is imminent, but the capacity is there.
3️⃣ Internal hedging or structured exposure
While the company says it does not hedge, institutions routinely monetise large assets through derivatives without selling them.
This scenario is the closest to “business as usual”, BTC stays on the balance sheet while Strategy extracts liquidity around it.
Scenario 3: Partial Sales, The “Last Resort” Trigger
CEO Phong Le has been unusually clear: Strategy would consider selling BTC only if two stress conditions occur simultaneously:
1️⃣ mNAV drops below 1,meaning the stock trades at or below the value of the underlying BTC.
2️⃣ Capital markets shut off, no viable issuance of shares or preferreds.
Only then would Bitcoin sales be used to:
📊 Meet preferred dividend obligations,
🦾 Preserve corporate solvency,
🤑 Or stabilise the capital structure.
Even then, sales would be targeted, selective, and small, not a liquidation of core reserves.
What could push Strategy into this corner?
📉 A prolonged Bitcoin drawdown deep into the $60k or $50k region.
📉 A severe equity market pullback causing Strategy stock to trade below asset value.
📉 Rising yields forcing investors to demand much higher returns on preferred stock.
📉 A temporary shutdown of ATM issuance programs.
This is not the base case, but it’s the contingency plan.
Scenario 4: Strategic Bitcoin Deployment, The Wild Card
This is where speculation becomes interesting, with 650,000 BTC, Strategy could one day:
1️⃣ Become a major Bitcoin liquidity provider
Strategy could offer deep institutional liquidity for settlement networks, Bitcoin rails, or ETFs.
2️⃣ Build a Bitcoin-backed financial ecosystem
Think credit products, corporate bonds partially denominated in BTC, or hybrid capital instruments.
3️⃣ Pair with sovereign entities
If nations begin acquiring BTC or issuing BTC-backed sovereign debt, Strategy could sit at that table.
4️⃣ Gatekeep BTC supply
In a world where 3–4 million BTC are lost forever, Strategy’s 650,000 BTC becomes even more systemically important.
No company has ever controlled an asset with this scarcity profile.
Would Selling BTC Crash the Market? Probably Not.
Context matters:
💰 Daily BTC spot + derivatives volume often exceeds $150bn.
💰 ETFs have seen single-day flows in the billions.
💰 CME alone clears $14bn notional in crypto derivatives daily.
A controlled Strategy sale, even tens of thousands of BTC, would be absorbed.
Markets already price in the possibility because management has openly discussed the conditions. A sale would be notable, but not apocalyptic.
Scenario 5: Hold Forever, The Original Saylor Thesis
Even though Michael Saylor is no longer CEO, Strategy continues to operate using his framework:
🦾 Bitcoin is the superior long-term treasury reserve asset.
🤔 Selling should only happen if the system is under threat.
⚡️ The mission is to accumulate as much of the 21m supply as possible.
If Bitcoin reaches six figures, the company’s BTC holdings become an economic superpower on their own.
Some analysts think Strategy is quietly trying to cement itself as the Berkshire Hathaway of Bitcoin, a permanent, self-financing, ever-expanding treasury.
How to Track What Strategy Actually Does Next
To understand future Strategy moves, without panic or FOMO, watch:
1️⃣ SEC filings (8-Ks, ATM updates, preferred issuances)
Shows fresh capital inflows and BTC purchases.
2️⃣ Market-cap-to-Bitcoin ratio (mNAV)
Above 1 → status quo, at or below 1 → watch closely
3️⃣ Preferred stock yields and issuance
Rising yields → tightening capital conditions.
4️⃣ Strategy’s BTC per share (BPS)
A key gauge of whether buying more BTC is shareholder-accretive. Sentiment on social media often reacts first, filings tell the truth.
Conclusion: Strategy’s Next Bitcoin Move Probably Isn’t a Sale, It’s a Pivot
The real story is not whether Strategy will dump Bitcoin.
It’s whether the company will:
👉 Use its Bitcoin,
👉 Borrow against its Bitcoin,
👉 Financialise its Bitcoin,
👉 Or deploy its Bitcoin in new strategic ways.
A forced sale is the least likely scenario and requires extreme stress.
The far more interesting possibility is that Strategy becomes the first publicly traded entity to meaningfully leverage Bitcoin as working corporate capital, not just a treasury asset.
If that happens, it won’t just reshape Strategy. It could reshape how corporations think about money.
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