- Crypto Saving Expert's Newsletter
- Posts
- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 172
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 172
GM! Bitcoin’s lacking festive cheer this Christmas.
Price is still wedged in a tight range, resisting any attempt to break above and drifting toward yet another test of support. The Santa rally never showed up, and the chart looks to be exhibiting more consolidation than celebration. Fear remains elevated, volatility remains low, and history says this time of year rarely breaks the pattern.
Full story in today’s newsletter. 👇
Table of Contents
Sponsored by: BloFin
Why BloFin?
Fair Trading: No internal or sister company market makers; BloFin doesn’t trade against its users.
Independent Liquidity: BloFin’s order books and liquidity is not shared with any large exchanges.
Transparent Leadership: The founder is fully doxxed—check out their Twitter here.
Impressive Volumes & Liquidity: Considering BloFin’s launch in 2023, its performance outshines many competitors like BingX.
Extensive Trading Options: Access 397+ futures pairs and 130+ spot pairs.
Secure Custody: User assets are held with Fireblocks, eliminating risks like hot wallet breaches.
Verified Proof of Reserves: Independently verified on Nansen for maximum security.
Chainalysis Integration: Ensures BloFin doesn’t accept illicit funds.
Instant Trade Execution: One of only four exchanges globally to achieve in-memory trade execution.
User-Friendly Policies: No KYC required, worldwide access via a VPN, and a mobile app for trading on the go.
Outstanding Customer Support and exciting user campaigns to enhance your experience.
Start trading with confidence and take advantage of BloFin’s innovative platform. Sign up now through our exclusive link:
BITCOIN LACKS FESTIVE CHEER
Bitcoin is celebrating this Christmas not where most would have hoped for after a ‘Santa rally’ failed to become a reality.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains tightly packed in its range, and is now trading in a smaller point of consolidation as it finds resistance under $91,000.
From here, a break above could lead to a test of the range high, while another test of $84,000 may come.
A break below there and a test of demand at the current bottom may occur.
HTF Trend
Bitcoin has a massive high time frame trend, which is formed by two trending zones of support and resistance.
The upper lines up exactly with the two 2021 highs, 2024 high, and the extended highs of this year.
The lower has been formed since the 2022 bottom and on the way up this cycle.
If bitcoin holds the lower end which it is now testing, it may continue to move within this region, potentially leading to another push up.
Previous Years
Bitcoin’s performance over the Christmas period has been mixed over the last five years.
2020 was undoubtedly the best-performing year, with up-only price action over the festive period.
We are yet to witness the same type of price action since, with a mixture of down and range-bound price action the common occurrence.
Judging from bitcoin’s current structure, it looks likely it will have the same consolidationary performance as previous years.
BTC/Gold
The BTC/XAU (Gold) chart is coming into an area of S/R, suggesting bitcoin’s period of weakness against the precious metal may be almost over.
Bitcoin has lost value to gold for five months straight and has almost halved in value against gold.
However, the region of 16-19 on the chart demonstrates the potential for this to be over. If so, bitcoin may launch a reversal against gold.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index stays within Extreme Fear and scores 24 as there has not been much change to the bitcoin price.
Christmas 2025 is the first year spent in this zone since 2022.
Tis the season for Natural Gas
The winter months bring coldness, darkness and volatility to Natural Gas. This has been one of my favourite assets to trade, as it is the commodity most similar to crypto (when metals were moving normally). The winter volatility on the asset, driven by supply, macro and weather patterns, provides ample opportunity to capture large swings in near-term price.
This year is no different, having seen the first drive of the season, which took the price to $5.36 before retracing back inside the golden pocket down at $3.85. From there, we saw some strength in the price which saw a nice pump out of that box. This showed the level of support was strong, and bias in the box is to look for upside positions within that range.
From a fundamental perspective, there is a lot to be bullish about. From a weather perspective, we have a La Niña winter, which tends to bring cooler and stormier weather patterns to the northern hemisphere. As this is a weather-driven asset, price moves violently on weather forecasts, as we saw a big sell off on the warmer than usual November and December. La Niña Winters are interesting though, as we could see a backloaded winter, meaning we see exceptionally cold weather and polar storms in late January/February, as has been the pattern in recent years.
This has been further exacerbated by a continued structural weakness in the supply of LNG, with Russian supply largely offline and the smaller (yet expanding) USA supply not yet ready to displace the large amounts of Russian pipeline gas which Europe has binged on in previous years. The glut from previous years has been dwindling, and this cushion is a lot less comfortable than in previous years.
Personally, I like to play this in a dip and rip fashion, accumulating in the demand zones, around $3.85 and below, whilst shaving as we move upwards. Interestingly, there is a clear ascending channel of rejection which has seen price bounce off several times, this could mark a natural TP zone.
As this is a primarily winter asset, I wouldn’t want to have exposure to this come April, and will not have positions open by then. The asset can be traded over on PrimeXBT, so check it out before the end of winter.
Gainers
Losers
Altseason Isn’t Coming Back Like Before, Analysts Warn
Analysts say the classic altcoin season may be over, with liquidity in 2026 flowing only to blue-chip crypto assets as Bitcoin targets $180k and markets grow more selective.
TL;DR
😟 No broad altcoin rally expected in 2026
💦 Liquidity likely to concentrate in “blue-chip” crypto assets only
👀 Bitcoin could target $180,000 by 2026, per CoinEx Research
🧸 Some analysts still expect a deep bear market before the next major peak
The familiar “altseason” playbook may not return next year, according to CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko, who argues that crypto markets are entering a far more selective phase.
“Retail investors expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Ko stated. “We predict no traditional altseason; instead, liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.”
Ko said CoinEx expects only modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026, shaped by diverging central bank policies. He added that Bitcoin’s historical correlation with global M2 money supply growth has weakened since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, reducing the impact of broad monetary expansion on crypto prices.
Under CoinEx’s base-case outlook, Bitcoin could still climb significantly. “Our base case sees Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026,” Ko said, even as most altcoins struggle to attract sustained capital.
Bear Market Fears Still Linger
Not everyone shares the same optimism. Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt remains cautious, warning that crypto markets may still face a prolonged downturn before the next major bull phase.
Brandt noted that over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has gone through five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale, each followed by drawdowns of at least 80%. While he believes the current cycle is “not done yet,” he projected that the next major Bitcoin peak may not arrive until September 2029.
Such a scenario would align with the long-debated four-year cycle theory, placing the next peak roughly a year after the 2028 halving. However, Brandt warned that if history repeats, Bitcoin could still fall as low as $25,000 before the next major rally begins.
Is The Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down?
Historically, the fourth quarter has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods, delivering some of its largest gains. But this year has broken that pattern. Bitcoin is down more than 22% for the current quarter, marking one of its worst Q4 performances on record.
Market commentators at Milk Road suggested this weakness may reflect a deeper reset. “This usually means the market has flushed a lot of excess risk and weak positioning,” the group said. While that does not guarantee upside in 2026, past cycles that ended with heavy resets often created stronger foundations for future growth.
For now, Bitcoin trades near $88,000, roughly 30% below its October all-time high. Whether that marks a pause before another leg higher or a longer period of consolidation may determine whether crypto’s next cycle rewards only a few winners — or surprises everyone once again.
Quantum Computing Fears Resurface Over Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Stash
A renewed debate over quantum computing raises questions about whether Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin could be hacked and what it would mean for BTC markets.
TL;DR
🤔 Social media debate reignited fears that quantum computers could one day crack Satoshi’s Bitcoin.
💥 Around 4 million BTC sit in early address formats, theoretically vulnerable to quantum attacks.
🦾 Bitcoin developers argue the threat is decades away and manageable.
📉 Analysts say market panic, not protocol failure, is the bigger risk.
Introduction
A renewed debate around quantum computing has stirred concern in the Bitcoin community, with traders and analysts questioning what would happen if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could access Satoshi Nakamoto’s long-dormant Bitcoin holdings.
The discussion was sparked over the weekend after a viral post suggested Bitcoin could collapse if the pseudonymous creator’s estimated 1 million BTC were hacked and sold. While the scenario remains hypothetical, it has revived long-running concerns about how advances in quantum computing could impact Bitcoin’s cryptography, price stability and market confidence.
While most developers dismiss any near-term threat, the episode highlights how sensitive Bitcoin markets remain to supply shock narratives tied to Satoshi’s untouched coins.
Why Satoshi’s Bitcoin Is Central to the Debate
At the core of the discussion is how early Bitcoin wallets were designed.
Roughly 4 million BTC, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings, are stored in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses. These early address types expose the full public key on-chain once funds are spent, making them theoretically vulnerable to future quantum attacks capable of deriving private keys.
Modern Bitcoin address formats do not expose public keys in the same way, meaning the vast majority of current wallets would not face the same level of risk.
Developers Say Quantum Threat Is Decades Away
Bitcoin OG and Blockstream co-founder Adam Back has repeatedly argued that quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography are still 20 to 40 years away.
Back and other cryptographers say Bitcoin has ample time to transition to post-quantum cryptography standards, many of which already exist, long before any real-world threat emerges.
Market analyst James Check added that while Bitcoin’s technology is adaptable, the bigger concern is psychological rather than technical.
Market Risk May Outweigh Technical Risk
According to analysts, the real danger of a quantum narrative lies in market reaction, not protocol failure.
Check said there is little chance the Bitcoin community would agree to freeze Satoshi’s coins preemptively, meaning any perceived risk of those coins becoming spendable could trigger volatility regardless of whether an attack is feasible.
Even without an actual quantum breakthrough, speculation alone could pressure price action if traders begin pricing in a future supply shock.
Final Takeaway
Quantum computing remains a theoretical risk for Bitcoin rather than an imminent one. While early Bitcoin addresses are structurally different from modern wallets, developers say the network has decades to adapt.
For now, the greater risk to Bitcoin lies not in broken cryptography, but in how markets respond to fears around dormant supply suddenly coming back into circulation.
Grayscale Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit New All-Time High in First Half of 2026
Grayscale forecasts a crypto market resurgence in 2026, predicting Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high amid macro demand and regulatory clarity.
TL;DR
🚀 Grayscale expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in H1 2026.
🤔 The firm says the four-year Bitcoin cycle is likely ending.
🇺🇸 Macro pressures on fiat and improved US regulation are key drivers.
🏆 Stablecoins, tokenisation and DeFi top Grayscale’s 2026 themes.
Grayscale sees Bitcoin Rallying in Early 2026
Grayscale has forecast a renewed crypto market rally, arguing that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
The prediction was outlined in the asset manager’s 2026 outlook report published Monday, which examined ten major investment themes expected to shape the crypto market next year.
Commenting on Bitcoin, Grayscale said rising macro demand for alternative stores of value, combined with improved regulatory clarity in the US, could drive prices sharply higher.
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’”the firm said, adding that Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year.
Fiat Debasement Fuels Demand for Crypto
Grayscale pointed to growing concerns around fiat currency debasement as a key structural tailwind.
The firm cited rising public sector debt and long-term inflation risks as reasons investors may continue shifting toward scarce digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ether.
“As long as the risk of fiat currency debasement keeps rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue rising as well,” Grayscale said.
Regulatory Clarity Seen as Catalyst
Grayscale also highlighted a significant shift in the US regulatory landscape over the past two years.
The firm pointed to the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and a broader easing of enforcement pressure on crypto firms.
“In 2026, Grayscale expects Congress to pass bipartisan crypto market structure legislation,”the report said, arguing that such a move would further embed blockchain-based finance into US capital markets and unlock additional institutional investment.
Top Crypto Themes for 2026
Beyond Bitcoin, Grayscale outlined ten investment themes it expects to dominate in 2026, including:
👉 Continued stablecoin growth driven by regulatory clarity
👉 Asset tokenisation is reaching an inflexion point
👉 DeFi expansion led by lending markets
👉 Staking is becoming a default feature for crypto investors
The firm expects stablecoins to move deeper into real-world use cases, including cross-border payments, derivatives collateral, corporate treasuries and online consumer payments.
Narratives Grayscale is Fading
Grayscale also identified two high-profile narratives it believes will have a limited impact on crypto markets next year.
The firm downplayed quantum computing as a near-term valuation risk, saying preparedness will continue but without market impact in 2026. It also argued that digital asset treasuries are unlikely to be a major swing factor despite recent media attention.
Bigger Picture
Grayscale’s outlook suggests the crypto market is entering a new phase, driven less by speculative cycles and more by macro forces and regulatory integration.
If its thesis holds, 2026 could mark a structural shift for Bitcoin, from cyclical asset to entrenched macro hedge, with price action reflecting that transition.
We’re excited to offer you a massive 35% discount!
What You Unlock:
- Strategies from top crypto experts
- Exclusive access to market insights, guides, and top tips
- Tools to maximise your crypto savings and investments
- A supportive community of like-minded crypto enthusiasts
- Access to our community Discord
Use the code 35OFF at checkout to claim your discount and get full access to our community plan for just a fraction of the price.
Secure your spot in the Crypto Saving Expert Community today.
Sponsored by: Stonksy
Stonksy is a momentum identifier that aims to capture expansive market moves before they happen by highlighting the start of potential price shifts. It can be used across all markets, including crypto, stocks, indices, commodities, and currencies.
Stonksy is growing in users week-on-week, proving why it aims to become one of the most-used indicators in the industry.
You can get 25% off the annual Stonksy plan with code TMG25, taking the price down to just £749.25 for an entire year of full access. Sign up today.
Find examples of Stonksy indications posted to the X every day: @stonksyio and learn how to use Stonksy and how it can benefit your trading system on the YouTube channel, with daily livestreams at 12:00 UTC.
This Newsletter is strictly for informational purposes only; the content is generic and has not been tailored in any way. Crypto Saving Expert UAB (“CSE”) is not providing, and should not be interpreted as providing, any form of offer of any currency, security, financial instrument or digital asset, or investment advice, recommendations or strategy. The content of this Newsletter is not intended to replace your own research with regard to any assets, products or services, and any action taken on the basis of this material is entirely at your own risk. CSE neither accepts nor assumes any liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of, or in any way connected to, the Newsletter content. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets may be unregulated in your jurisdiction, any profits may be subject to tax and the value of any investment could fall.
If you click on a link within this Newsletter to go through to a provider, we may get paid. This usually only happens if you get a product/use a service from it. This is what helps fund CSE and keeps the majority of our content free to use. Two crucial things you should know about this, however: a) this never impacts our editorial recommendations, if something is included, it is because we independently rate it as the best; and b) you will always get as good a deal, or better, than if you went direct. For full details on how CSE is funded, please click here.
CSE collects, processes and stores certain data. Such data may be shared with CSE’s wholly owned subsidiary company, Crypto Saving Expert Limited. Please note that by submitting information about yourself to CSE you are consenting to such use. For full details on our collection, processing and storage of data, together with your rights in relation thereto, please consult our Privacy Statement here.