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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 177
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 177
Gm! This is one of those weeks that defines cycles. Bitcoin has swept major lows, fear is extreme, and price is sitting at levels that previously marked the end of selling pressure. Either the market finds its footing here, or we get one last flush into what could be a golden opportunity.
All key levels, scenarios, and important dates are laid out in today’s newsletter. 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Do Or Die Moment
Bitcoin is on the cusp of either forming a bottom or seeing a final leg down into what could be a golden opportunity.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has dropped over 42% from its all-time high in what has become its biggest pullback since the run began from $16,000.
This extended drop saw it sweep the 2025 low, but from there it has initially bounced.
During this time, Saylor’s entry has been met and dipped below, a major market event.
However, the price does remain in demand as this is where the selling stopped last year.
Weekly MAs
There are two vital moving averages we need to pay attention to on the weekly chart.
The 100WMA has been lost and now remains a point where, if reclaimed, bitcoin has a bullish outlook.
To the downside, the 200WMA may be waiting to be tested. Interestingly, this also lines perfectly with 2024 demand and again, a point where selling stopped and buying pressure took over.
We can't speak with certainty, but what we can say is anywhere in and around that downside point could offer a golden opportunity.
CME Gap
Bitcoin has a huge CME gap open and one of the largest in a long time.
This runs all the way up to $84,500 and offers a glimmer of hope for upside price action this week.
Still, this alone would not be enough to confirm a trend shift if it does get filled.
Solana
Solana, like many altcoins are staring down the barrel of either a huge opportunity or another drop.
SOL is very close to coming into weekly demand, around the $85 region. This would offer a reasonable place for the price to hold.
Still, the market very much depends on bitcoin and if it does indeed drop lower, the $60 region is a bearish scenario but also a huge opportunity.
Hyperliquid
In a week where prices have been in decline and chaos has prevailed in traditional finance, one crypto name has stood out above the rest. HYPE, the native token for L1 dex Hyperliquid has been an immense performer, soaring 87% from its lows. The long from $21.40 was glorious, and then a secondary scalp from $27.50 last week (for those in the Discord) was a great move. The token respected our levels and cooled off following the run.
I have some targets lined up for this, with zones at $31 and $28. I don’t think this narrative is dead and expect this to be a strong performer, and potentially one of the best majors to own.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is deep within Extreme Fear as Bitcoin’s next move looks uncertain.
After hitting the lowest levels in over a year, market participants are scared and panicked, with the next move absolutely pivotal.
Important Dates
Wednesday 4 February, 13:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets due to increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 48,000, with the previous data coming in at 41,000.
Wednesday 4 February, 15:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark, with the forecast at 53.5.
Friday 6 February, 14:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan releases the index, which is a survey depicting consumer confidence in the economy. The survey provides insight into consumers’ confidence to spend money within the US economy.
The Index’s score is set to come in at 55, with the previous data coming in at 56.4.
Gainers
Losers
Spot Bitcoin ETF Assets Slip Below $100bn as Outflows Resume
Spot Bitcoin ETF assets fell below $100bn after fresh outflows, as Bitcoin slid under $74,000 and crypto markets sold off.
⚡ TL;DR
👉 Spot Bitcoin ETF assets dropped below $100bn for the first time since April 2025
👉 $272m in net outflows hit ETFs on Tuesday as Bitcoin fell under $74,000
👉 Total crypto market cap shed nearly $500bn in a week
👉 Altcoin ETFs quietly attracted small inflows
👉 Institutions may be preparing to move beyond ETFs and trade crypto directly
Assets held in spot Bitcoin ETFs slipped below the psychologically important $100bn mark on Tuesday, following $272m in net outflows, according to data from SoSoValue.
It’s the first time ETF assets under management have fallen below $100bn since April 2025, a sharp reversal from October’s peak near $168bn, when Bitcoin optimism was running hot.
The move comes as Bitcoin plunged below $74,000, dragging the broader crypto market lower in a sell-off that wiped roughly $470bn off total market capitalization in just one week, per CoinGecko.
🧊 Bitcoin ETFs bleed again after brief rebound
Tuesday’s outflows followed a short-lived bounce on Monday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $562m in fresh capital a reminder of just how volatile flows have become.
That rebound didn’t last.
With Tuesday’s losses, year-to-date net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs now approach $1.3bn, underscoring how sensitive ETF demand has become to price action and macro stress.
Notably, Bitcoin is now trading well below the ETF creation cost basis of around $84,000, meaning new ETF shares are effectively being issued at a loss a dynamic that tends to discourage fresh inflows.
🌱 Altcoin ETFs quietly attract inflows
While Bitcoin funds were bleeding, altcoin-linked ETFs showed modest resilience:
👉Ether ETFs: +$14m
👉XRP ETFs: +$19.6m
👉Solana ETFs: +$1.2m
The flows are small, but the contrast matters. It suggests that some allocators may be diversifying away from Bitcoin-only exposure, rather than exiting crypto altogether.
🏦 Are institutions moving beyond ETFs?
Despite the drawdown, several industry voices argue that ETF investors are unlikely to panic-sell.
ETF analyst Nate Geraci noted on X that the vast majority of spot Bitcoin ETF assets are likely to stay put, even amid volatility.
Institutional liquidity provider B2C2 CEO Thomas Restout echoed that view but added an important twist.
“The benefit of institutions coming in and buying ETFs is they're far more resilient. They will sit on their views and positions for longer.”
However, Restout suggested the next phase of institutional adoption may bypass ETFs entirely.
“We’re expecting the next wave of institutions to be the ones trading the underlying assets directly.”
In other words: ETFs may have been the on-ramp, not the endgame.
🧠 Big picture
The dip below $100bn isn’t a death knell for Bitcoin ETFs but it is a reminder that:
👉 ETF flows are still price-sensitive, not purely strategic
👉 Bitcoin’s volatility cuts both ways for institutional products
👉 Institutional crypto adoption may be evolving, not retreating
If the next wave really does shift toward onchain trading and direct exposure, ETF flows could become a lagging indicator not the main event.
For now, though, the message from the tape is simple: risk is being repriced, and Bitcoin ETFs aren’t immune.
If you want, next we can:
👉 Zoom out and compare this ETF drawdown to previous BTC cycle pullbacks
👉 Tie this into liquidity, rates, and the yen carry trade
👉 Or frame it as“ETFs were step one here’s what step two looks like”
Crypto’s $250bn Wipeout Isn’t a Crypto Problem It’s a US Liquidity Problem
Raoul Pal argues crypto’s $250bn crash isn’t a broken cycle, but a temporary US liquidity squeeze hitting all long-duration assets.
🧠 TL;DR
👉 Crypto didn’t break, liquidity did
👉 Bitcoin and SaaS stocks are falling together, pointing to a macro liquidity drain, not sector failure
👉 Gold soaked up marginal liquidity, starving risk assets
👉 US Treasury plumbing issues and government shutdowns worsened the squeeze
👉 Raoul Pal remains very bullish for 2026, expecting liquidity to return fast
A brutal weekend selloff wiped more than $250bn off the crypto market, reigniting the familiar chorus:“Bitcoin is broken. The cycle is over.”
Raoul Pal doesn’t buy it, and his argument cuts straight through the noise.
According to the Global Macro Investor founder, what we’re seeing isn’t a crypto-specific failure at all. It’s a classic liquidity event, and crypto just happens to be in the firing line.
🔗 Bitcoin and SaaS are moving together, and that matters
Pal points out something that narrative-driven markets tend to ignore: correlation.
Bitcoin and SaaS stocks have been selling off in lockstep. That’s not random.
Both are what macro investors call long-duration assets, whose value is heavily dependent on future growth, adoption and cash flows. When liquidity tightens, or rates stay higher for longer, these assets are hit first and hardest.
“People are saying crypto is dead, and AI is replacing software companies,”Pal said.“But if two completely different asset classes are collapsing together, the cause isn’t sector-specific. It’s macro.”
In other words:
👉 Same move, same timing, same driver
And that driver is liquidity.
🥇 Gold sucked the oxygen out of the room
One of Pal’s more interesting observations is the role gold has played. Gold’s explosive rally hasn’t just been a safe-haven trade; it’s been a liquidity vacuum.
“The rally in gold essentially sucked all marginal liquidity out of the system that would have flowed into BTC and SaaS,”Pal explained.
There simply wasn’t enough liquidity to support:
👉 Gold
👉 Bitcoin
👉 SaaS stocks
When liquidity is scarce, capital flows to perceived safety and risk assets pay the price.
🏛️ US government shutdowns made things worse
The liquidity squeeze didn’t come from markets alone. It was amplified by US fiscal plumbing issues. Pal highlighted two key factors:
👉 Multiple government shutdowns, which disrupt normal Treasury operations
👉 The Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) is expected to be effectively drained by 2024
Previously, when the US Treasury rebuilt its cash balance (the TGA), liquidity was offset by money flowing out of the RRP. That buffer no longer exists.
Now, every TGA rebuild is a pure liquidity drain.
“There’s no offset available anymore,” Pal said. “That’s why this feels harsher than people expect.”
🪑 Is the next Fed chair to blame? Pal says no
Some market participants have blamed fears around a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh. Pal dismissed that narrative entirely.
According to him, Warsh’s role isn’t to strangle liquidity, it’s to re-run the Greenspan playbook:
👉 Cut rates
👉 Let growth run hot
👉 Rely on productivity (especially AI) to suppress inflation
“Warsh will cut rates and do nothing else,”Pal said.“He’ll get out of the way while Trump and Bessent run liquidity through the banking system.”
🚀 Why Pal is still massively bullish for 2026
Despite the carnage, Pal ended on a strikingly optimistic note.
Yes, liquidity has been tight.
Yes, risk assets got punished.
But in his view, the worst of the drain is nearly over.
“We just can’t get every moving part right,”he said.“But we now understand the system better, and we remain HUGE bulls for 2026.”
His thesis is simple:
👉 Liquidity returns
👉 Long-duration assets recover first
👉 Bitcoin and high-growth tech benefit disproportionately
🧩 Bottom line
This wasn’t a crypto failure.
It wasn’t a broken cycle.
And it wasn’t the end of Bitcoin.
It was a liquidity event, and history shows those don’t last forever.
When liquidity turns, narratives tend to flip fast.
And if Raoul Pal is right, the people declaring crypto dead today may end up chasing it higher tomorrow.
ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2026: The Technologies Set to Reshape the Global Economy
ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2026 report outlines how AI, Bitcoin, robotics and biotech could drive the next decade of global growth.
⚡ TL;DR
👉 AI is the core engine accelerating every major innovation platform
👉 Bitcoin and public blockchains are positioned to reshape money, contracts and capital markets
👉 Multiomics + AI could collapse drug discovery costs and transform healthcare
👉 Reusable rockets and robotics unlock entirely new economic layers
👉 ARK believes these technologies could add ~4%+ to real global GDP growth this decade
🧠 The Great Acceleration Has Begun
According to ARK Invest, the global economy is entering what it calls “The Great Acceleration”, a phase where multiple exponential technologies mature at the same time and begin reinforcing each other.
This isn’t linear progress. It’s a step-function change.
Big Ideas 2026 marks ARK’s 10th annual flagship report, and the message is clear: AI is no longer just another sector; it’s the central nervous system of the future economy.
🤖 AI: The Central Dynamo of Everything
ARK argues that artificial intelligence is now the primary catalyst across five major innovation platforms:
- Artificial Intelligence
- Public Blockchains
- Robotics
- Energy Storage
- Multiomics (biological data)
As AI scales, it doesn’t just improve software; it unlocks entirely new capabilities in hardware, biology, energy systems and financial infrastructure. Think:
- AI agents running businesses
- Autonomous labs discovering drugs
- Robots integrating into human workplaces
- AI-powered wallets coordinating economic activity
This convergence is why ARK believes productivity growth could exceed consensus expectations by over 4% per year.
₿ Bitcoin, Public Blockchains & the Future of Finance
ARK doubles down on its long-held thesis that public blockchains will become the base layer of global finance.
Key ideas:
👉 Money and contracts migrate on-chain
👉 Smart contracts reduce execution costs and friction
👉 Stablecoins bridge TradFi and DeFi
👉 Digital wallets evolve into AI-powered purchasing agents
In this world, Bitcoin remains the monetary anchor of digital scarcity in an increasingly programmable economy. ARK sees blockchains not as a niche asset class, but as financial infrastructure.
🧬 Multiomics: AI Meets Biology
Multiomics may be one of the least understood and most powerful ideas in the report. As the cost of sequencing DNA, RNA and proteins collapses:
👉 AI models trained on biological data accelerate discovery
👉 Drug development timelines shrink dramatically
👉 Precision therapies target rare and chronic diseases
👉 Blood tests could detect cancer earlier than ever
ARK believes autonomous AI labs could transform a stagnant pharmaceutical industry into one of the most productive sectors in the global economy.
🤖 Robotics, Energy & Reusable Rockets
The physical world isn’t being left behind.
ARK highlights how:
👉 Humanoid and specialised robots will work alongside humans
👉 Advanced batteries collapse transport and logistics costs
👉 Reusable rockets become critical infrastructure for AI cloud expansion
Reusable rockets aren’t just about space, they’re about moving compute, data and intelligence anywhere on Earth.
Yes, the biggest robots ever built might end up powering AI.
📈 Why This Matters
ARK’s Big Ideas framework isn’t about short-term price targets. It’s about identifying where exponential curves are crossing critical thresholds.
Their conclusion?
The future doesn’t arrive all at once, but those who recognise it early have the chance to own what’s next.
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