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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 178
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 178
Gm! Bitcoin is at a tipping point. After failing to reclaim $71,500, the price is rolling over and drifting toward untested demand below. This is where the market decides whether a higher time frame low forms… or if we see one more leg down before the real bottom is in.
Structure is echoing past cycle behaviour, sentiment is stretched, and major macro data drops this week.
All key levels, scenarios, and important dates are laid out in today’s newsletter. 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Big Reveal
Bitcoin has yet to confirm whether it has formed a bottom or if further downside is expected before it ultimately reaches a high-time frame low.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is at a tricky spot after failing to break above $71,500 after several attempts.
The price has begun to break down and appears to be heading towards untested demand down at the $62,000-$64,000 region.
From here, bitcoin could bounce back to the upside, or if selling momentum is too strong, cascade down to the $60,000 wick.
For a more positive outlook, bitcoin simply needs to break above $71,500.
2022 vs 2026
Bitcoin has two pathways on the high time frame. Put in a concrete low or give false hope before another leg down.
The structure is very similar to 2022 currently, when looking at the breakdown from all-time high and how the price is behaving.
From here, it could give a complacency bounce before another leg down occurs before a final bottom is reached.
On the other hand, $60,000 may prove to be the bottom and it spends the next few months accumulating and pushing back towards $100,000 plus.
A third, and unexpected scenario could be that bitcoin speeds up a bear market and just melts down from here, giving a fast, but quick end to finding a bottom.
ETH vs SOL
Ethereum is hanging in the balance. It has yet to fully test the weekly demand zone at $1,600, which over the past three years has proved to be strong support.
At that point, Tom Lee and Bitmine would be 60% down on their investment.
However, it is not out of the question for ETH to drop to 2022 lows and test $1,100 or even the $881 low.
Ethereum, like all other altcoins, is at the mercy of what bitcoin does next. A bitcoin low would be bullish for everything; another leg down leaves everything on the table.
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid had a phenomenal solo bounce as it ripped almost 2x to the upside. It has also kept afloat extremely well compared to other altcoins.
However, it could not get past resistance and has now begun to sell off as the overall market conditions are just not there for anything to sustain bullish momentum.
This could see HYPE gradually trade back into demand towards $20.
And like everything else, there are lower levels to potentially be tested if bitcoin drags the market down again.
The Magnificent Money Tree
The dominant theme this week has been the Magnificent 7’s accelerating shift toward CAPEX heavy infrastructure spending, triggering a notable cooling across mega-cap tech valuations. Microsoft sold off aggressively, Google weakened, and Meta delivered extreme volatility.
Combined projected CAPEX for next year now exceeds $600 billion across the group, pushing total infrastructure spend over $1 trillion in just the past couple of years. The market is beginning to reassess what this level of investment means for margins, cash flow, and forward earnings. The repricing process appears to be underway.
Within that context, selective opportunities are emerging. Amazon stands out. The stock has lagged peers for some time, and following the post earnings cool off, it presents a compelling upside case as infrastructure build out progresses. At the same time, tactical rejection setups remain in play should price rally into supply.
Two key scenarios are being monitored:
If the retrace extends, focus shifts to the lower demand zone around 187, where a reaction would be of interest.
Alternatively, if price rallies sharply and prints a daily close below 240, that level would be monitored for potential short exposure, targeting a move back into the prior range and a gap fill from last year.
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Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is at some of the lowest levels in history. It currently scores 11, within Extreme Greed, but it has been as low as 9 this week.
Looking back on the data, this region around a 10 score is where the index has hit during times of mass panic, but also opportunity.
Important Dates
Wednesday 11 February, 13:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 70,000, with the previous data at 30,000.
Friday 13 February, 13:30 UTC - US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI measures inflation and is a vital economic measurement in all countries. The data is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and calculated using a shopping basket of goods and services.
The data is forecast at 2.5%, with the previous data lower at 2.7%.
Gainers
Losers
Ethereum hits capitulation zone, but is this the bottom or just the pain phase?
Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score has plunged into capitulation territory, reviving debate over whether ETH is near a generational bottom or still has further downside ahead.
TL;DR
📉 ETH MVRV Z-Score has dropped to -0.42, a level tied to capitulation
⚠️ Analysts warn this isn’t as extreme as the 2018 or 2022 bottoms
🧠 Bulls argue ETH is deeply undervalued versus long-term “fair value”
🩸 Bears say liquidity stress and tax-season pressure could push prices lower
🔥 Historically, this zone has been one of the best “buy fear” windows
📊 What the MVRV Z-Score is really saying
Ethereum’s Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) Z-Score has fallen to -0.42, pushing ETH into territory historically associated with forced selling, panic, and capitulation.
The metric compares Ethereum’s market value with its realised value, essentially the aggregate cost basis of holders. When the score turns deeply negative, it signals that the market is pricing ETH below where most investors bought it.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson, this is real pain, but maybe not maximum pain yet.
“Ethereum is indeed going through a clear capitulation process, but this does not compare to the intensity seen at the 2018 or 2022 bottoms.”
For context:
📉December 2018 low: MVRV Z-Score hit -0.76
🧯2022 Terra/Luna collapse: similar extreme compression
📍Today: painful, but not historically final yet
🩸 Price action confirms stress, not collapse
Ether has dropped roughly 30% over the past two weeks, falling to $1,825 before rebounding to $2,100.
That move alone tells the story:
👉 Weak hands flushed
👉 Forced sellers cleared
👉 Volatility compressing
But the structure still matters.
Wedson cautions that capitulation phases often come in waves, not single events.
“Historically, there is still room for further downside before a definitive structural bottom is formed.”
🧠 Fundamentals vs liquidity: the real battle
Not everyone is bearish.
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun says Ethereum’s fundamentals are holding up, and even improving.
“Ethereum’s fundamentals have not seen any substantive deterioration. On the contrary, they continue to improve across several key dimensions.”
The problem isn’t the protocol. It’s liquidity. Sun points to:
🧾 April tax-season pressure
💵 Tight macro liquidity
📉 Risk-off positioning
As long as those forces persist, the price may overshoot fundamentals.
🟢 “Buy fear” camp says history is screaming
Others see this moment very differently.
Trader and MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe called this zone a“tremendous opportunity.”
Why?
Because ETH is now as undervalued as it was during:
🦠 March 2020 COVID crash
💥 June 2022 Terra collapse
🧊 December 2018 bear market bottom
📉 April 2025 liquidation event
“In all of those cases, this provided a tremendous buying opportunity.”
Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima agrees:
“Negative MVRV zones have repeatedly preceded explosive recoveries.”
🧠 Opinion: this is what bottoms actually look like
This isn’t euphoria. This isn’t hope. This isn’t even optimism.
This is exhaustion.
Ethereum isn’t being abandoned; it’s being bled by macro forces that don’t care about fundamentals. Historically, that’s exactly when long-term value quietly reasserts itself.
Could ETH go lower? Yes.
Could this still be one of the best risk-adjusted long-term entry zones of the cycle? Also yes.
Capitulation doesn’t ring a bell; it whispers.
And right now, Ethereum is whispering loudly.
The Guy Who Lost $20bn in Two Days
Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital collapse erased over $20bn in 48 hours, triggering historic bank losses and exposing hidden leverage at the heart of Wall Street.
🧾 TL;DR
👉Bill Hwang ran Archegos like a private hedge fund with extreme leverage
👉 Used total return swaps to hide massive positions from regulators and banks
👉 A small stock sell-off triggered margin calls → forced liquidation → total wipeout
👉 Over $20bn vaporised in ~48 hours
👉 Major banks ate multibillion-dollar losses (some learned faster than others)
👉 Archegos changed how Wall Street thinks about leverage, opacity, and risk controls
🧨 Who was Bill Hwang before the implosion?
Bill Hwang wasn’t some internet day trader gone rogue. He was a former protégé of Julian Robertson at Tiger Management, running what looked like a quiet, hyper-focused family office: Archegos Capital Management.
No outside investors. No glossy marketing decks. No public filings.
That last bit mattered more than anyone realised.
🧱 The setup: leverage hiding in plain sight
Archegos didn’t buy stocks the normal way. Instead, Hwang used total return swaps derivatives that let banks hold the shares on paper, while Archegos got:
👉 The upside
👉 The downside
👉 And the leverage
This allowed him to:
👉 Build enormous synthetic positions
👉 Avoid public disclosure rules
👉 Borrow 10x–20x leverage from multiple banks at once
Each bank thought it had a big client. None realised they were all financing the same crowded trade.
🎯 The concentrated bet
Archegos piled into a tight cluster of stocks, including:
👉 ViacomCBS
👉 Discovery
👉 Baidu
👉 Tencent Music
When these names went up, Archegos looked like a genius.
When they dipped? The math turned brutal.
⏱️ The 48-hour meltdown
It started quietly.
ViacomCBS announced a stock offering. The price slipped. That triggered margin calls.
Then everything accelerated.
Banks demanded more collateral. Archegos couldn’t meet the calls. So banks began selling fast.
The problem? They all tried to exit at the same time.
In roughly two trading days:
👉 Archegos was effectively insolvent
👉 Over $20bn in equity evaporated
👉 Multiple banks suffered historic losses
This wasn’t a slow bleed. It was a financial heart attack.
🏦 The collateral damage
Some banks reacted faster than others.
👉 Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley dumped positions early
👉 Credit Suisse hesitated and paid the price
Credit Suisse alone lost over $5.5bn, a wound it never truly recovered from.
Archegos didn’t just blow itself up. It reshaped the fate of a global bank.
🔍 Why this wasn’t “just one bad trade”
The scary part isn’t that Hwang lost $20B. It’s that:
👉 No regulator saw it coming
👉 No bank had a full picture
👉 No single system flagged the risk
Everything was:
👉 Legal
👉 Bilateral
👉 Opaque
This wasn’t fraud in the classic sense. It was financial blind spots colliding at scale.
🧠 The lesson Wall Street didn’t want to learn
Archegos proved something uncomfortable:
You don’t need a giant hedge fund to threaten the system; you just need leverage, opacity, and coordination failure.
Sound familiar?
From hedge funds to crypto, family offices to derivatives desks, the Archegos saga is a reminder that:
👉 Liquidity is an illusion until it’s needed
👉 Leverage works until it doesn’t
👉 And hidden risk is still risk, just delayed
⚠️ Final thought
Bill Hwang didn’t lose $20bn because he was reckless that week. He lost it because the entire structure only worked in calm markets.
And when volatility showed up?
Two days was all it took.
Could Quantum Computing Really Break Bitcoin?
Quantum computing fears are resurfacing in crypto. But is Bitcoin actually at risk, or is this another misunderstood boogeyman?
🧠 TL;DR
👉 A $9bn Bitcoin sale reignited fears about quantum computing breaking Bitcoin
👉 Galaxy Digital says the sale had nothing to do with quantum risk
👉 Quantum threats to Bitcoin are theoretical, distant, and solvable
👉 Bitcoin can upgrade cryptography long before quantum machines become dangerous
👉 The real risk isn’t quantum computers it’s panic narratives misunderstood by markets
Quantum computing is back in the Bitcoin discourse again.
This time, it wasn’t sparked by a lab breakthrough or a leaked research paper, but by whispers following Galaxy Digital’s earnings call. Crypto Twitter quickly connected dots that weren’t there, claiming a $9bn Bitcoin sale executed by Galaxy was driven by fears that quantum computers could soon crack Bitcoin’s cryptography.
Galaxy flatly denied it.
And yet, the episode reveals something deeper: quantum anxiety is quietly creeping into institutional thinking, even if it’s premature.
So let’s ask the uncomfortable question:
👉Could quantum computing actually threaten Bitcoin one day?
🧩 What actually happened with the $9bn Bitcoin sale?
After Galaxy’s earnings call, speculation spread that a wealthy client had dumped $9bn worth of Bitcoin due to concerns about“BTC quantum resistance.”
Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, shut that down quickly.
The trade, he said, had nothing to do with quantum computing.
Still, the rumour stuck partly because it fit an existing fear that’s been lurking in the background of crypto for years.
⚛️ Why quantum computing scares people
At a high level, the fear goes like this:
👉 Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA)
👉 A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could, in theory, reverse-engineer private keys from public keys
👉 That could allow attackers to steal Bitcoin from vulnerable addresses
Sounds terrifying until you zoom out.
This is not a current threat. It’s a hypothetical future problem, contingent on breakthroughs that do not yet exist.
🕰️ How far away is “quantum danger,” really?
Most serious cryptographers, including Bitcoin veterans, aren’t losing sleep.
Adam Back has repeatedly said quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin are likely 20–40 years away, if they arrive at all.
That timeline matters.
Bitcoin:
👉 Has upgraded before
👉 Can upgrade again
👉 Does not need to be static to survive
Unlike legacy financial systems, Bitcoin is software, not stone.
🛠️ Bitcoin isn’t helpless; it can adapt
There’s already active work on mitigation.
A proposal known as BIP-360 would allow Bitcoin users to migrate funds to post-quantum-secure signature schemes, protecting coins even if quantum breakthroughs accelerate.
Crucially:
👉 Only exposed public keys would be at risk
👉 Many Bitcoin addresses have never revealed their public keys
👉 A coordinated upgrade could protect the network long before any real threat emerges
This is not wishful thinking it’s how Bitcoin has evolved for 15 years.
🧠 So why does the fear persist?
Because quantum computing is:
👉 Hard to understand
👉 Easy to sensationalise
👉 Perfect for headlines
We’ve seen this movie before:
👉“Bitcoin will be banned”
👉“Bitcoin wastes too much energy”
👉“Bitcoin is broken by AI”
👉 Now:“Bitcoin will be broken by quantum”
Each time, complex technical issues get flattened into scary narratives, and markets overreact.
📉 When fear meets weak markets
The timing matters.
These rumours surfaced as Bitcoin dipped below $74,000, with sentiment already fragile and macro liquidity tight. In that environment, any exotic risk sounds plausible.
But as Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz put it:
“You always know a bottom after you see it.”
Quantum fear didn’t cause the selloff; it just latched onto it.
🔮 Opinion: Quantum won’t kill Bitcoin, panic might try
Here’s the real takeaway:
👉 Quantum computing is a long-term engineering challenge, not an existential threat
👉 Bitcoin has decades to prepare
👉 The network’s open-source nature is a strength, not a weakness
If quantum computing ever reaches the point where it can break Bitcoin, it will also:
👉 Break banking encryption
👉 Break military communications
👉 Break the internet as we know it
Bitcoin won’t be singled out, and it won’t be caught unprepared.
🧨 Final thought
Quantum computing isn’t Bitcoin’s nemesis.
Misunderstood risk, narrative contagion, and short-term fear are far more dangerous.
And ironically, the fact that Bitcoin can be upgraded to survive quantum threats is exactly why it will.
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