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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 179
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 179
Gm! The market is hurting… and that’s exactly where opportunity starts to show.
The market is stuck in clearly defined ranges, creating pain for passive holders but opportunity for active traders as price coils for its next decisive move.
Across crypto and macro, we’re at inflection points. Ranges are being built, sentiment remains in extreme fear, and major data this week could be the catalyst that decides whether risk assets push higher… or flush one final time before the real move begins.
All key levels, scenarios, and important dates are broken down in today’s newsletter. 👇
Table of Contents
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Opportunity In Pain
While the current prices on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins are painful to see, there is vast opportunity in waiting.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has built a range, in which it is now bouncing between. This creates the chance to long and short these two levels until the price inevitably breaks out.
An upside break could see bitcoin heads towards $77,000 quickly as it retraces the fast and thin downside move.
To the downside, an initial drop of $63,000 to test 4-hour demand before working towards the $60,000 wick is valid.
Ethereum
Ethereum has built the same. A range-bound trading environment which has already yielded plenty of opportunities to the upside and downside.
Ethereum’s move out of the range would be catalysed by bitcoin. But when it eventually occurs, ETH could head towards $2,300 or $1,600.
The downside would be significant as it is macro demand, a region that has been tested over the past three years.
Solana
You can see a pattern forming across altcoins. Ranges built, long and shorts to be taken in the ranges, but then targets either side.
Solana’s movement will be determined by how strong/weak it is against bitcoin and Ethereum.
For that reason, there is extended upside and downside potential for the price.
TOTAL2
TOTAL2 is giving the glimmer of hope needed for altcoins. It has tested macro support this month and bounced.
If this proves to be the bottom, then it will have been a standard test of demand before going higher.
However, a 40% drop from here down to the next demand is possible and again, will be decided by what bitcoin does next.
Emerging Markets
Let’s talk about emerging markets. Emerging markets are presenting an interesting opportunity for investors, particularly for those with large exposure to the US dollar. Since Covid, and led by the huge amount of stimulus coinciding with the mega tech firms monetising their monopolies to great effect, we have seen the S&P500 soar to ATH after ATH.
This presents an interesting dilemma. As mentioned to one of the students in the CSE premium programme today, our job as traders/investors is to find areas where the market has mispriced assets or scenarios. Among the hype of the rise of the US mega tech wave, emerging markets have fallen by the wayside.
So what changed? Well, Trump shook up the entire global economy and brought in macro risks which had previously only ever been consigned to Economics textbooks (“This time is different” by Reinhart & Rogoff is a must read). This has led to several strains on the dollar, which has seen it lose relative value in near record times.
DXY Weekly
This has coincided with a new Commodities supercycle, where we have seen a shift in tech firms moving from buybacks to building, with metals and materials massively outperforming anything else.
Magnificent 7 total capex, 2019-2026E
Emerging markets tend to be more heavy on commodities, which are benefitting from this shift. We also saw the Net Zero lunacy lead to massive divestment in ‘dirty’ industries, which caused the price to fall from non fundamental reasons, creating the aforementioned asset mispricing.
EEM/SPX Weekly
We saw the foundations for this move last year, where for the first time since 2017, emerging markets outperformed the US index. Looking at a chart, this trend continues to go, and will likely continue to be a theme for the year. There are several specific country indices and stocks which we REALLY like and will form a basis for the big bet of 2026, these will be shared in our private discord (join here).
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index has not changed since last week and remains in the depths of Extreme Fear, scoring 8.
The Index will only see an uptick in the event Bitcoin breaks to the upside.
Important Dates
Wednesday 18 February, 19:00 UTC - FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting in June will be released. This will provide a deeper insight into what was discussed in the meeting, alongside the tone of the comments.
The market will use the minutes as a marker leading up to the next FOMC meeting.
Friday 20 February, 13:30 UTC - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE data, which measures the average amount of money consumers spend monthly in the economy.
PCE is released in two formats: month-over-month and year-on-year. The data also removes volatile products, such as energy and food.
The year-on-year data is forecast at 2.9%.
Friday 20 February, 14:45 UTC - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which measures the manufacturing industry. The data is a crucial measurement of the US economy, as it is a significant portion of the revenue for large businesses.
The data is forecasted at 52.6.
Friday 20 February, 14:45 UTC- S&P Global Services PMI
S&P Global also releases a second piece of data, the services PMI data, which measures the service industry. The data is another factor alluding to the economy’s strength, as it makes up much of the GDP alongside manufacturing.
The data is forecasted at 53.
Gainers
Losers
Logan Paul’s $16.5m Pokémon Sale But What About The NFT Holders?
Logan Paul sold his rare Pikachu Illustrator card for $16.5m, setting a Guinness World Record, but critics question whether he should have been able to after previously fractionalizing it as an NFT.
⚡ TL;DR
🏆 Logan Paul sold his rare Pikachu Illustrator card for $16.5m, setting a Guinness World Record.
💰 He reportedly made around $8m profit after buying it for $5.3m in 2021.
🧩 The controversy? He fractionalized 5.4% of the card via NFTs in 2022 on Liquid Marketplace.
⚖️ Critics argue that token holders may not have had enforceable ownership rights.
📉 The sale comes as the broader NFT market continues to struggle.
🏆 The $16.5m Record Sale
Logan Paul just broke the record for the most expensive trading card ever sold.
The Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card, one of just 39 produced in a 1990s competition, fetched nearly $16.5m at auction. The winning bid came from AJ Scaramucci, son of financier Anthony Scaramucci.
Paul originally purchased the card in July 2021 for $5.3m, meaning he likely walked away with roughly $8m in profit after fees.
On paper? An incredible investment.
But that's not the end of the story.
🧩 The NFT Fractionalization Controversy
In 2022, Paul fractionalized ownership of the card via Liquid Marketplace, offering NFT-based fractional shares.
According to Paul:
👉 Only 5.4% of the card was fractionalized
👉 Investors paid roughly $270,000 in total
However, Liquid Marketplace later went offline, leaving investors scrambling. A lawsuit in Canada followed, though Paul himself is not named in it.
Critics argue that the fractionalization structure may not have granted real legal ownership.
Delphi Labs general counsel Gabriel Shapiro called it a:
“Classic case of slop tokenisation.”
The accusation? That the token was merely “juxtaposed” with the asset, without conferring enforceable property rights.
In simpler terms: did NFT holders actually own part of the card or just a token referencing it?
⚖️ Should He Have Been Able To Sell It?
This is where things get interesting. If token holders truly owned fractional rights, then:
👉 Were they entitled to a share of the $16.5M sale?
👉 Did they approve the sale?
👉 Were buyout clauses triggered?
Paul claims that when Liquid Marketplace went offline, he personally paid to restore the site so users could withdraw funds.
But critics say this situation highlights a recurring issue in tokenisation:
Owning a token is not necessarily the same as owning the underlying asset.
Without clear legal structures, custodial agreements, SPVs, and binding shareholder rights, fractional NFTs can exist in a grey area.
And grey areas are where controversy thrives.
🎭 Not Paul’s First NFT Storm
This isn’t Logan Paul’s first NFT controversy.
His CryptoZoo project in 2023 faced heavy backlash after the promised play-to-earn game failed to materialise. A class-action lawsuit followed.
Paul eventually launched a buyback program and reimbursed investors who agreed to waive claims. The lawsuit was dismissed in 2025.
Other NFT investments also cratered, including a 0N1 Force NFT he purchased for roughly $635,000 that is now valued under $2,000.
So when critics see fractionalized assets tied to Paul’s name, scepticism is automatic.
📉 The NFT Market Backdrop
The timing is notable, as Paul’s physical card set a world record, and the NFT market is struggling:
👉 NFT market cap has fallen from $3.2bn to $1.55bn over three months.
👉 Platforms like Rodeo and Nifty Gateway recently shut down.
The contrast is stark:
👉 Physical collectables are hitting record highs.
👉 Digital collectables continue sliding.
🤔 Bigger Question: Is Fractionalization Broken?
The real issue isn’t Logan Paul specifically.
It’s whether NFT fractionalization, as it was structured during the 2021–2022 hype cycle, actually delivered what investors thought it did.
Tokenising real-world assets sounds revolutionary, but unless the legal layer is airtight, it may just create an illusion of ownership.
Paul made millions on the sale.
The lingering question is whether fractional holders truly shared in that upside or whether they only ever owned a digital placeholder.
And that question goes far beyond Pokémon cards.
Bitcoin Faces Its Worst Q1 in Eight Years But Does It Matter?
Bitcoin is down over 22% in the first quarter, on track for its worst start since 2018. Here’s what history says about Q1 volatility and whether this signals deeper trouble or just another cycle reset.
🧠 TL;DR
📉 Bitcoin is down 22.3% year-to-date, potentially its worst Q1 since 2018.
📊 BTC has declined in 7 of the past 13 first quarters volatility is normal.
🔴 January and February may both close red for the first time ever.
🧱 Analysts say this looks like a correction, not a structural breakdown.
🔄 Historically, weak Q1 performance hasn’t dictated the rest of the year.
📊 On Track for a Brutal Start to 2026
Bitcoin began the year around $87,700 and has since fallen roughly $20,000, currently hovering near $68,000. At -22.3% year-to-date, it’s shaping up to be the worst first quarter since the 2018 bear market, when BTC plunged nearly 50% in Q1.
Historically, Bitcoin has closed the first quarter in the red seven out of thirteen times. The most painful was 2018 (-49.7%), followed by 2020 (-10.8%) and 2025 (-11.8%).
As analyst Daan Trades Crypto put it:
“The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature… whatever happens in Q1 does not generally translate over further down the line.”
In other words ugly, yes. Unprecedented? Not even close.
🔴 First-Ever Consecutive Red January and February?
Bitcoin lost 10.2% in January and is currently down 13.4% in February. If it fails to reclaim $80,000 before month-end, it would mark the first time BTC has posted back-to-back red months to start a year.
That sounds dramatic and it is statistically unusual.
But context matters. BTC has only recorded two consecutive losing first quarters before:
👉 2018 (deep bear market)
👉 2022 (macro tightening cycle)
Both were heavy macro-driven drawdowns. Yet both were eventually followed by significant multi-month recoveries.
📉 Ether Is Having It Even Worse
While Bitcoin is down 22%, Ether is currently down over 34% this quarter, making this its third-worst Q1 on record.
But Ethereum has only closed three first quarters in the red out of nine historically meaning extreme Q1 volatility isn’t the norm for ETH either.
🔄 Correction or Breakdown?
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, views the move as:
“A regular correctional phase rather than a structural breakdown in the asset’s long-term trajectory.”
That distinction matters.
There’s no major protocol failure. No exchange collapse. No systemic industry implosion like 2022.
Instead, what we’re seeing looks like:
🌍 Macro uncertainty
💵 Liquidity tightening
📉 Risk-off sentiment
🧹 Leverage getting flushed
Bitcoin has now posted five consecutive weeks of losses, down 2.3% in the last 24 hours alone. That kind of sustained weakness typically reflects positioning resets not necessarily thesis failure.
🕰️ What History Says About Bad Q1s
Zooming out:
👉 2018’s brutal Q1 was followed by months of consolidation before the next major leg.
👉 2020’s red Q1 was followed by one of the strongest bull runs in history.
👉 2022’s early weakness preceded volatility, but ultimately reset the cycle.
The key takeaway? Q1 performance has historically been a poor predictor of full-year returns.
Bitcoin’s halving cycle dynamics, institutional participation, and structural adoption trends remain intact regardless of how ugly the first three months look.
📍 The Bigger Picture
Yes, this could become the worst Q1 in eight years. Yes, sentiment is fragile, but this doesn’t resemble 2018’s full-blown structural bear collapse at least not yet.
If history is any guide, Q1 volatility often acts as a pressure valve rather than a death sentence.
The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin is down 22% in March.
The real question is whether the forces that drove it to $126,000 last cycle have fundamentally changed.
So far they haven’t.
The 100x era is over? Novogratz says crypto is growing up, and that changes everything
Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says crypto’s days of 30x retail gains may be ending as institutional capital replaces speculation. Is this the end of moonshots or the start of something bigger?
Crypto might not be dead.
But the “30-to-1 overnight moonshot” era? That could be.
Speaking at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum in New York, Mike Novogratz delivered a blunt message: crypto is maturing, and maturity rarely comes with 10x volatility.
“Retail people don’t get into crypto because they want to make 11% annualized,” he said. “They get in because they want to make 30 to one, eight to one, 10 to one.”
And that’s exactly the problem.
🧨 Retail built the rocket. Institutions are replacing it.
Novogratz pointed to two moments that changed the market’s DNA:
👉 The 2022 collapse of FTX, which shattered trust and sent Bitcoin down 78%.
👉 The mysterious Oct. 10 leverage flush that “wiped out a lot of retail and market makers” with no clear smoking gun.
That second event, he says, quietly altered the ecosystem. “This time, there’s no smoking gun. You look around like, what happened?”
What happened, according to him, is structural. Retail traders, the ones chasing narrative-driven 10x returns, were cleared out. In their place? Institutions.
And institutions don’t play the same game.
📉 From moonshots to 11%?
Institutions don’t buy Bitcoin for an 8-to-1 asymmetric upside. They buy it for portfolio allocation, diversification, and structured exposure.
That shift changes everything:
🚀 Fewer vertical parabolic rallies
📊 More measured capital flows
🏦 ETF-driven positioning
⚖️ Lower volatility over time
Crypto, in other words, starts behaving more like macro tech than a casino, and that’s uncomfortable for many.
🧠 “Crypto is about narratives”
Novogratz nailed something deeper:
“Crypto is all about narratives… those stories take a while to build.”
Retail momentum markets thrive on belief cycles. Once broken, they don’t immediately rebuild.
“Humpty Dumpty doesn’t get put back together right away.”
That metaphor matters. Narratives are fragile. Trust compounds slowly.
After FTX, Terra, leverage wipes, ETF rotations, and macro liquidity squeezes, the retail adrenaline engine is weaker.
🔄 What replaces speculation? Tokenised real-world assets.
Novogratz expects the next major phase to look very different:
🏢 Tokenised real estate
💵 Tokenised treasuries
📜 On-chain credit markets
🌍 Cross-border financial rails
“It's going to be real-world assets with much lower returns.”
This is not degen season. This is financial plumbing season.
Even Sergey Nazarov echoed this view, arguing tokenized real-world assets could surpass traditional crypto in total industry value.
If that’s right, crypto doesn’t disappear; it becomes infrastructure.
🟠 But what about Bitcoin?
Not everyone sees doom.
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark, framed it differently:
It’s not that Bitcoin believers are gone, it’s that who holds Bitcoin is changing.
Early ideologues are being replaced by:
👉 Asset managers
👉 Pension exposure
👉 ETF flows
👉 Institutional allocators
Those who see Bitcoin as a long-term hedge “will be fine,” he said.
💭 Opinion: The 100x era may shrink, but the asset class may grow
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Crypto can’t both:
1 - Become a globally regulated financial rail
2 - And remain a wild west 30x playground
The more institutions enter, the more volatility compresses.
But compression isn’t death.
It’s evolution.
The early internet had dot-com chaos. Then came Amazon.
Crypto may be leaving the lottery phase and entering the infrastructure phase.
And ironically, that could create bigger, slower, more durable wealth cycles.
Just not overnight.
The real question
If crypto stops being about:
👉 Memecoin explosions
👉 100x leverage
👉 Retail FOMO waves
And starts being about:
👉 Tokenised credit
👉 Stablecoin settlement
👉 Institutional capital flows
Will the crowd stay? Or was the crowd only here for the fireworks?
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