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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 180
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 180
Gm! The market is stuck, sentiment is low, and patience is being tested. That’s usually when structure matters most.
The market remains trapped in clearly defined ranges, creating frustration for passive holders but opportunity for active traders as price compresses ahead of its next decisive move.
Across crypto and macro, we’re sitting at key inflection points. Ranges are forming, fear remains elevated, and major data this week could be the catalyst that decides whether risk assets push higher… or flush one final time before the real move begins.
All key levels, scenarios, and the important dates are broken down in today’s newsletter.👇
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to move sideways, finding some love inside the support level at $62,601. This is a long term level of support and holding this is key to holding up the price. Keep a close eye on the candle closes, a 4hr close below could signal a move down to sub $60k.
There continues to be resistance at $70k, and also an interesting level in line with the previous cycle high at $68,981. A flip and gain of that level could open up some nice upside opportunities, whilst the level itself provides interesting opportunities for shorts.
Ethereum
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum is also moving down and sideways, however it has found support around the $1800 level. Ethereum looks weaker relative to Bitcoin, with ETH/BTC trending down since the start of the year.
The picture doesn’t look pretty for Ethereum, with the next major level of support down at $1500. However, should we hold this level, there are a lot of key upside pockets of liquidity. The key level to gain is $2000, which then opens up a run to $2681.
Solana
Solana is interesting as it is showing more strength than the other two majors, with a strong level of support around $77. Although we are still very much in a downtrend, and so a gain of $91 is required to be bullish.
However, looking at the chart showing market cap rather than price (solana is an inflationary asset and currently inflates at around 4% per year). This chart indicates that more downside is likely to come, which correlates to around $57. This is a major level and is likely to be well defended.
XRP
Everybody's favourite (or hated!) XRP is another which is interesting. This is a token which appears to be performing stronger than other majors, holding well above it’s February liquidation level.
This is still in a downtrend, but the candles for the liquidation are interesting; $1.25 and below could provide an interesting opportunity to the longside.
NVIDIA
The market is waiting for a major catalyst to provide some impetus, and that comes tonight (or tomorrow for our Asia readers) in the form of NVIDIA results.
The worlds largest (and most important tech giant) is expected to beat their estimates of $90.4bn Revenue and $2.11 Earnings per Share. NVIDIA has been a great asset to trade as it moves well, with enough volatility to make things interesting.
The market is estimating an implied move from results of 5.19%, which would take it above the key $200 level. Should guidance come in weak (would be a major surprise) then downside targets of $172 are inevitable.
The stock is very much at the top end of the range so a potential set up would be to look after results at opportunities around $206 for downside short. Or for a long on a retest of $194. This is likely to whipsaw and so a long bid at $180 could be a great opportunity for a grab and go.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is currently unchanged at 11, indicating the market remains panicked. Investors are waiting to see how the market plays out with the current turbulence.
Important Dates
Thursday 26th - US Unemployment Claims
This represents fresh unemployment claims from the US. Low Unemployment is one of the two main aims of the Fed, and an uptick in Unemployment could see the Fed move to cut rates more aggressively.
The market is expecting 217k, up from 206k last week. A higher than expected number will likely push up gold and push down risk assets such as stocks and crypto.
Friday 27th - US Producer Price Index (PPI)
PPI represents the change in price of finished goods and services sold by producers, this is usually a front runner to consumer inflation and gives an insight of what to expect in upcoming CPI data.
The market is expecting 0.3%, down from 0.5% in the previous data. A higher than expected print will likely push up gold and push down risk assets such as stocks and crypto.
Gainers
Losers
Who Does Everyone Think ZachXBT Is About to Expose?
Crypto sleuth ZachXBT has hinted at a major insider trading expose and Polymarket traders are already betting on which crypto company will be named. Here’s what we know.
Crypto Twitter is on edge.
On-chain investigator ZachXBT has teased a new insider trading expose and the market isn’t waiting around. Speculation is exploding across X, Telegram groups, and prediction markets, with traders placing real money on who they think is about to get called out.
And yes… there’s a live market for it.
📊 Polymarket Traders Are Already Betting
Over on Polymarket, a live event titled “Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?” has gained traction.
Prediction markets are often viewed as sentiment indicators, and in this case, they reveal where the crowd’s suspicions lie. Large bets can move odds quickly, especially when on-chain sleuthing accounts start amplifying unusual wallet activity.
While odds shift rapidly, traders are reportedly focusing on:
👉 Mid-tier exchanges
👉 Token launch platforms
👉 Projects with recent suspicious price spikes
👉 Teams linked to controversial token unlocks
The mere existence of this market shows just how much credibility ZachXBT carries in the space.
At the time of writing, the number one suspect is Meteora, following a surge of activity on the morning of the 25th. This surge in activity has sent the decentralised, Solana-based, liquidity protocol to number one with 45% likelihood, up from a low of 24% only a few hours ago.
Other notable suspects include Axoim, which briefly spiked above 17% likelihood this morning, Robinhood, Pump.fun and MEXC, sitting at 6%, 8% and 4% respectively.
🧵 What Sparked the Speculation?
The buzz began after ZachXBT posted a cryptic message suggesting an upcoming insider trading investigation. Shortly after, on-chain analytics account Lookonchain highlighted suspicious trading activity tied to specific wallets.
Although no company has been officially named, crypto Twitter quickly began connecting dots:
👉 Wallets accumulating before announcements
👉 Large coordinated exits post-listing
👉 Insider-linked addresses moving funds to exchanges
The speculation cycle kicked into overdrive.
🤔 Who Are Traders Pointing Fingers At?
While no confirmation exists, discussion across social media includes:
👉 Exchanges with recent controversial listings
👉 Teams tied to influencer-backed launches
👉 Projects with suspicious token allocation structures
Importantly, nothing has been confirmed, and prediction markets reflect sentiment, not facts.
Historically, when ZachXBT drops an expose, it’s backed by detailed wallet tracking, transaction timelines, and hard on-chain evidence.
That’s why markets are reacting before the reveal.
📈 Why This Matters
Insider trading remains one of crypto’s most persistent trust issues.
If a major exchange, token issuer, or launchpad is exposed for enabling or participating in insider trading:
👉 Token prices could collapse
👉 Exchange reputations could take severe damage
👉 Regulatory scrutiny could increase
👉 Investors could lose confidence rapidly
In previous investigations, ZachXBT’s findings have led to account freezes, internal probes, and public admissions.
🧠 The Bigger Picture
The fact that a prediction market exists for a whistleblower’s next expose says a lot about crypto culture in 2026:
👉 On-chain transparency fuels speculation
👉 Reputation is market-moving
👉 Investigative accounts carry significant influence
👉 Traders attempt to front-run narratives
Crypto doesn’t just trade tokens anymore; it trades information.
🔎 Final Thoughts
Right now, everything is speculation.
But when ZachXBT posts a teaser, the industry listens.
Whether the reveal ends up being a mid-tier exchange, a token launch platform, or something completely unexpected, one thing is certain:
The market is already pricing it in.
And once the thread drops, volatility will likely follow.
No Bear Market in Adoption: Bitcoin Institutional Growth Surges in 2025
Bitcoin may be down 50% from its all-time high, but adoption across institutions, banks, merchants, and nation-states is accelerating in 2025, according to River.
Bitcoin’s price may be cooling, but its adoption isn’t.
According to financial services firm River, 2025 has seen a powerful expansion in institutional, banking, merchant, and nation-state adoption of Bitcoin despite BTC trading roughly 50% below its all-time high.
“There is no bear market in Bitcoin adoption,” River said in its latest report.
While price action has softened, the firm argues that adoption is compounding in ways that are not yet reflected in market value.
“Trust in Bitcoin has grown faster than that of any asset in history. What began as an experiment is now a globally recognised store-of-value.”
🏦 Wall Street Goes Mainstream Bitcoin
River reports that institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC in 2025 alone, including purchases by:
👉 Public companies
👉 Governments
👉 Sovereign wealth funds
👉 Investment funds
👉 Exchange-traded funds
Registered investment advisors (RIAs) have now been net buyers of Bitcoin for eight consecutive quarters, investing roughly $1.5 billion per quarter into Bitcoin ETFs over the past two years.
That exposure flows through brokerage accounts, retirement portfolios, sovereign funds, and corporate balance sheets, meaning millions of underlying individuals now hold indirect BTC exposure.
Public companies have continued adding to their Bitcoin treasuries, even during range-bound or declining price action, reinforcing the long-term strategic narrative.
🏛 Banks Are Building Bitcoin Products
A major shift in 2025 has been regulatory clarity in the United States.
River notes that 60% of the top US banks are now building Bitcoin-related products. With improved regulatory guidance, banks are increasingly able to:
👉 Custody Bitcoin
👉 Offer BTC investment products
👉 Integrate Bitcoin into wealth management services
This marks a stark contrast to previous cycles, where institutional participation was limited by compliance uncertainty.
🏢 Businesses Lead BTC Buying
Interestingly, businesses were the largest BTC buyers in 2025.
Crypto treasury companies, specifically created to accumulate Bitcoin on balance sheets, saw adoption grow 2.5x year-over-year.
This corporate accumulation strategy reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset rather than a short-term speculative play.
🛍 Merchant Adoption & Lightning Growth
Merchant adoption is accelerating alongside institutional growth.
👉 The number of US businesses accepting Bitcoin tripled in 2025
👉 Global Bitcoin payment usage rose 74% year-over-year
👉 Payments on the Lightning Network surged 300%
River estimates the Lightning Network now processes over $1.1 billion in monthly transaction volume, reinforcing its growing utility for small, fast payments.
🌍 Nation-State Bitcoin Adoption Expands
Five new nation-states reportedly became Bitcoin holders in 2025. Among them:
🇱🇺🇸🇦 Sovereign wealth funds in Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia
🇨🇿 A central bank in the Czech Republic
🇧🇷 Brazil
🇹🇼 Taiwan
River estimates that 23 nation-states now hold Bitcoin via:
👉 State-backed mining
👉 Asset seizures
👉 Central bank exposure
👉 Sovereign wealth fund allocations
This growing sovereign footprint adds another structural layer to Bitcoin’s long-term thesis.
📉 Volatility Is Falling
One of the more notable findings in the report: Bitcoin’s volatility is declining.
River says BTC volatility is now approaching that of gold and even the S&P 500. Lower volatility reduces the hurdle for:
👉 Pension funds
👉 Conservative asset managers
👉 Risk-averse institutional capital
As price swings moderate, larger capital pools may find Bitcoin increasingly investable.
🧠 The Bigger Picture
River frames Bitcoin as the world’s only scarce and incorruptible form of digital money built on trust and mathematical certainty.
While price remains cyclical, the report suggests adoption is following a compounding curve similar to early internet growth patterns.
The takeaway?
Bitcoin may be in a price drawdown, but structurally, it continues to entrench itself deeper into:
👉 Corporate finance
👉 Global banking
👉 Sovereign strategy
👉 Merchant commerce
👉 Institutional portfolios
🔎 Final Thoughts
If River’s thesis holds, 2025 may be remembered less for price volatility and more for foundational adoption growth.
Markets move in cycles.
Adoption compounds.
And if institutions, banks, merchants, and nation-states continue accumulating quietly beneath the surface, the price may eventually have to catch up.
Binance Stablecoin Reserves: $10bn in Liquidity Warning?
Stablecoin reserves on Binance have fallen 18.6% since November, dropping $10bn amid a broader crypto liquidity drought. Analysts say fresh inflows are needed for market stabilisation.
🧠 TL;DR
💰 Binance stablecoin reserves fell 18.6% since November.
📉 Reserves dropped from $50.9bn to $41.4bn.
🏦 Binance still holds 64% of total exchange stablecoin reserves.
📊 Total stablecoin market cap has plateaued at ~$300bn.
🏛 Fed rate cuts unlikely in March, liquidity pressure continues.
📉 $10bn Leaves Binance
Stablecoin reserves on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, have dropped sharply over the past three months. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost:
👉 Reserves fell from $50.9bn to $41.4bn.
👉 That’s an 18.6% decline, or roughly $10bn removed.
Stablecoin reserves are widely viewed as a proxy for crypto liquidity. When reserves shrink, it often signals that investors are pulling capital from exchanges rather than keeping funds ready for deployment.
🏦 Binance Still Dominates, But The Trend Matters
Despite the drop, Binance still accounts for:
👉 Roughly 64% of total stablecoin reserves are across exchanges.
However, when liquidity begins to drain from a platform of Binance’s scale, analysts argue it becomes a broader market signal.
Darkfost cautioned:
“For the market to stabilise, a renewed inflow of stablecoins will likely be required.”
Without fresh capital entering exchanges, upward momentum can struggle to sustain itself.
💧 What A Stablecoin Drain Means
A contraction in exchange stablecoin reserves typically suggests:
👉 Investors are converting stablecoins back into fiat.
👉 Capital is exiting the crypto ecosystem.
👉 There is less “dry powder” sitting on exchanges.
In bull phases, stablecoin reserves often grow as traders prepare to deploy funds.
In liquidity droughts, the opposite occurs.
Darkfost described the current environment as suffering from:
“A lack of incoming liquidity.”
📊 Stablecoin Market Cap Has Stalled
The broader stablecoin market tells a similar story. According to DeFiLlama:
👉 The total stablecoin market cap has plateaued at just over $300bn since October.
👉 This follows two years of strong expansion, with circulation growing roughly 150% during that period.
The last major contraction occurred in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna collapse, and recovery took roughly 18 months.
That historical context suggests liquidity cycles can persist longer than expected.
🏛 Fed Policy Adds Pressure
Macro conditions are not helping.
Liquidity in crypto markets is closely tied to US monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently indicated openness to holding rates steady in March if economic data support it. Meanwhile:
👉 CME futures markets assign a 95.5% probability that rates remain unchanged.
Higher rates generally mean:
👉 Attractive returns in cash and Treasuries.
👉 Reduced speculative capital.
👉 Slower liquidity inflows into risk assets like crypto.
📌 Bigger Picture
Crypto markets currently face:
👉 Declining exchange stablecoin reserves.
👉 Plateauing total stablecoin supply.
👉 Limited new liquidity.
👉 The Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease policy soon.
Price can still move in both directions.
But sustained rallies typically require fresh capital, and for now, that inflow appears muted.
Until stablecoin reserves begin rising again, liquidity may remain the dominant headwind for crypto markets.
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