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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 181
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 181
GM.
Well… this week escalated fast.
Over the weekend, we saw US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and the chaos has continued into this week.
Energy markets reacted immediately.
Iran has threatened ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply.
So oil is moving higher.
And if oil starts pushing toward $100+, inflation could come back fast… right when central banks were hoping things were cooling down.
Which raises the big question for crypto.
When the world gets unstable, does Bitcoin trade like risk tech…
Or does it finally start acting like digital gold?
Let’s break down what this means for markets this week. 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Takes Flight
Bitcoin is attempting to break resistance which has capped upside movement. After consolidating and failing to break lower, it may be time to launch a redemption rally.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has broken the downtrend and is pushing up with strength, with the analogy of a ball being held under water coming to mind.
Should this finally be bitcoin’s time to shine, then the region of $78,000 appears to be a magnet for the price.
This is where bitcoin would retrace upwards into supply and also have a big liquidity sweep above $79,434.
Ethereum
Ethereum has built the same. A range-bound trading environment which has already yielded plenty of opportunities to the upside and downside.
Ethereum’s move out of the range would be catalysed by bitcoin. But when it eventually occurs, ETH could head towards $2,300 or $1,600.
The downside would be significant as it is macro demand, a region that has been tested over the past three years.
Solana
Unlike ETH, Solana is following bitcoin’s lead and has also broken out.
Thus far, Solana is appearing to be looking at an S/R flip of the $88 resistance, which would act as the springboard for a return to triple digits.
SOL left a huge price void on the drop down, as it was fast and aggressive. This means it can, in theory, retrace this just as quickly if the conditions are there.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is showing signs of a rounded top pattern as the price fails to break through $7,000.
Still, it is also freely trading within the range in which it has built, with it testing support again on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Volatility has dried up for the index all throughout 2026, with no real volatility kicking in over the first two months.
Eventually, this will enact once it breaks support or resistance, with the most bullish case for bitcoin being the stock market entering another leg higher.
Macro Meltdown
Well this week turned into an eventful one. We saw US/Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend and the chaos continues into this week. This led to a surge in energy, as Iran threatened any ship sailing through the Straight of Hormuz (this is why it’s important).
Oil
In terms of Oil, this has seen a strong push up as supplies begin to see disruption with the inability to insure crossings through the Straight of Hormuz. We’ve been bullish on oil all year and that bias continues to be the case, however given the move, we may see a lot of volatility in the sector.
The assets which appeal most are producers outside of the region, with US Permian producers now likely to see strong cashflow as price moves into their optimum zone. There are also a lot of opportunities in Latin America. Petrobras has seen a strong breakout, and could be poised for a re-run of it’s highs should global chaos remain.
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Natural Gas
We have seen oil rise sharply but it is Natural Gas which has taken the lead. Qatar is one of the 3 major LNG players (alongside Australia and USA) and between them they serve the majority of the market. This effect is already being felt in Europe, where we saw UK prices rise 50% in a day.
If you’ve been following the videos (watch here), then we went long on Natural Gas last week, with the position moving up substantially. This morning saw a cool off on the back of Trump’s plan to deploy naval escorts and insurance to ships in the Straight, although this should be taken with a pinch of salt as the economics and risk on this are vast. Natural Gas remains bullish and should this closure prolong, traders may get panicked and this could see a parabolic surge up to $6.
You can trade Natural Gas on PrimeXBT
Korea takes a pinch
The impact of this will be felt far and wide, but this provides an opportunity for companies with large non-Middle Eastern assets, particularly fields in the US, Australia, Canada and South America. The key losers from Gas prices are Europe and Asia. Asia represents the majority of Oil and Gas exports out of the Gulf, with Japan and Korea facing increased energy costs. This has bled into equities, as we see Korea’s index pullback from its parabolic rally.
South Korean equities had a sustained rally on the back of memory shortages, with this pullback being a healthy reduction in leverage. The pullback has created a good opportunity to look for some long side positions, as the memory market reacclimatise to it’s new valuations.
The Dollar comes roaring back
The big winner was the US dollar, as investors rushed to the safety of the greenback. We saw a significant push up on the dollar, erasing the entire year's decline. As mentioned, when this pushes up, it is historically not good for Bitcoin, particularly when priced in USD.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index currently scores 10 and remains in the depths of Extreme Fear.
However, this could all change very quickly should Bitcoin break to the upside and begin to gain some bullish momentum.
Important Dates
Wednesday 4 March, 15:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark, with the forecast at 53.5.
Friday 6 March, 13:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 60,000, with the previous data at 130,000.
Friday 6 March, 13:30 UTC - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at -0.3%, with the previous figure at 0%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data isn’t forecasted.
Gainers
Losers
Korean Stock Exchange Halts Trading as Middle East Conflict Sparks Market Rout
South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq plunged more than 10%, triggering circuit breakers, as escalating Middle East tensions sent oil prices soaring and wiped trillions from global equities.
South Korea’s main stock indexes plunged more than 10% on Wednesday, forcing the Korea Exchange to halt trading after escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered a sharp sell-off across global markets.
The KOSPI and KOSDAQ both fell more than 10% during morning trading in Seoul, marking their worst session since August 2024 and activating circuit breakers.
The losses followed intensifying airstrikes involving the United States and Israel targeting Tehran, and subsequent Iranian retaliation.
Asia Markets Slide as Oil Spikes
👉 The Nikkei 225 and TOPIX were both down nearly 4%.
👉 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 3%.
👉 China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 1.3%.
Thailand’s stock exchange slid 7.8%, reflecting investor concerns over energy supply disruptions.
Market strategists cited profit-taking and risk reduction as investors rotated out of high-performing regional indexes.
“Investors sold down risk assets,” said Kazuaki Shimada, chief strategist at IwaiCosmo Securities. “The Nikkei and the Kospi, which outperform other major indexes, became targets of heavier selling.”
South Korea is particularly vulnerable to energy shocks. The country imports roughly 94% of its oil, with 75% sourced from the Middle East.
Strait of Hormuz Concerns Drive Oil Higher
Tensions escalated further after Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, following threats to target oil and cargo vessels.
US President Donald Trump said the United States Navy would escort tankers through the strait if necessary. Crude oil prices surged:
👉 Brent crude jumped 14% to $82 per barrel
👉 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 12% to $75 per barrel
The spike in energy prices amplified inflation concerns and weighed heavily on equity markets dependent on imported oil.
“Black Swan” Shock to Markets
Crypto researcher SungHoon Lee described the unfolding situation as a “black swan event,” noting that trading in Korea was halted because the crash was “too fast for the system to handle.”
Lee estimated that $3.2 trillion in global stock market value had been erased in four days.
He compared the situation to the 1973 oil crisis, which triggered a prolonged global recession and market downturn.
Crypto Market Reaction More Muted
Despite the turmoil in traditional markets, crypto assets have seen a comparatively modest reaction.
Total crypto market capitalisation fell approximately 0.5% on the day to $2.39 trillion, according to CoinGecko data.
While digital assets have already declined roughly 21% year-to-date, Wednesday’s geopolitical shock has not yet triggered the same magnitude of panic seen in equity markets.
Outlook
Markets now face multiple uncertainties:
👉 Potential prolonged disruption of Middle East oil supply
👉 Escalating military engagement
👉 Rising inflation expectations
👉 Heightened volatility across risk assets
For oil-import dependent economies like South Korea, the stakes are particularly high.
Whether this marks the start of a deeper global downturn or a temporary volatility spike will depend on how quickly geopolitical tensions stabilise and whether energy markets can avoid further disruption.
For now, the sudden halt in Korean trading underscores the scale of the shock reverberating through global financial systems.
Iran’s Largest Crypto Exchange Sees 700% Spike in Withdrawals After Airstrikes
Crypto withdrawals from Iran’s largest exchange, Nobitex, surged 700% after US and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, before collapsing amid a nationwide internet blackout.
Iran’s largest crypto exchange saw a sharp surge in withdrawals within minutes of US and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic.
In a Monday report, Elliptic said outflows from Nobitex jumped more than 700% to over $500,000 almost immediately after the first strikes. Within an hour, withdrawals reportedly climbed to nearly $3m.
Possible Capital Flight?
Elliptic said the spike “potentially represents capital flight from Iran,” noting that early tracing showed many funds moving to foreign crypto exchanges.
“This allows funds to be moved out of Iran while avoiding some of the scrutiny of the global banking system,” the firm stated.
Given Iran’s long-standing sanctions and restrictions on international banking access, crypto has often served as an alternative channel for cross-border transfers.
Internet Blackout Halts Outflows
However, the surge was short-lived.
According to fellow blockchain forensics firm TRM Labs, crypto activity sharply declined after the Iranian government reportedly imposed strict internet blackouts.
TRM noted that Iran’s internet connectivity fell by approximately 99% shortly after the conflict escalated.
The firm disputed the capital flight interpretation, arguing:
“It appears that the country’s crypto ecosystem is not showing signs of acceleration or capital flight, but instead experiencing a downturn in both transactions and volume as the regime enforces strict internet blackouts.”
In other words, activity may have collapsed not because funds stopped moving voluntarily but because users were unable to access the network.
Nobitex’s Role in Iran’s Crypto Market
Nobitex dominates Iran’s domestic crypto sector, reportedly handling roughly 87% of the country’s crypto transaction volume.
In 2025 alone, the exchange processed approximately $7.2bn in trades across more than 11m users.
The platform has become central to how many Iranians:
👉 Hedge against currency devaluation
👉 Access dollar-pegged stablecoins
👉 Move funds internationally
👉 Store value outside traditional banks
Banking Instability Drives Crypto Adoption
Crypto usage in Iran has been reinforced by instability in the country’s banking system.
In October, Ayandeh Bank, one of Iran’s largest private lenders, collapsed after accumulating $5.1bn in losses and nearly $3bn in debt, impacting more than 42m customers.
Iran’s central bank has also warned that several other domestic banks could face dissolution without significant reforms.
Against that backdrop, crypto has increasingly functioned as an alternative financial rail for individuals seeking to bypass sanctions or protect savings.
Exchange Risks Persist
While crypto provides an alternative, domestic exchanges are not immune to risk.
Nobitex suffered an $81m hack in June 2025, underscoring the vulnerabilities facing centralised platforms in politically sensitive environments.
The latest spike in withdrawals highlights how quickly geopolitical events can trigger blockchain-based fund movements, especially in regions facing sanctions and banking fragility.
Broader Implications
The episode demonstrates:
👉 How crypto can act as a rapid capital mobility tool during geopolitical shocks
👉 The limits of digital asset usage under strict internet controls
👉 The intersection between sanctions, conflict and blockchain infrastructure
Whether the initial surge represented genuine capital flight or panic-driven repositioning remains debated.
What is clear is that in moments of crisis, crypto becomes a visible pressure valve until connectivity itself is switched off.
VanEck CEO Says Bitcoin Is Near a Bottom as Four-Year Cycle Winds Down
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck says Bitcoin is close to its cycle bottom, arguing the four-year halving pattern, not fundamentals, is driving the current bear market.
Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom, according to Jan van Eck, CEO of asset manager VanEck.
Speaking with CNBC on Monday, van Eck argued that the ongoing weakness in Bitcoin is largely tied to the historical four-year halving cycle rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle,” van Eck said, referencing the mechanism that cuts mining rewards in half roughly every four years.
The Four-Year Cycle Thesis
Van Eck described what many analysts call the “four-year crypto cycle”:
👉 Bitcoin rallies for roughly three consecutive years
👉 The fourth year sees a sharp correction
👉 The pattern resets around the next halving
“Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year,” he said. “2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”
The theory suggests that supply dynamics, not ETF flows, macro data, or regulatory developments, remain the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s long-term price structure.
Debate Over Whether the Cycle Still Applies
The four-year cycle has been heavily debated over the past year.
Critics argue that Bitcoin’s increasing institutional adoption may have weakened the historical pattern. Factors cited include:
👉 Sustained demand from exchange-traded funds
👉 A weakening US dollar
👉 Improving regulatory clarity
👉 Greater corporate treasury participation
Supporters of the cycle model maintain that halving-driven supply shocks still exert structural influence, regardless of growing market maturity.
Price Action and Market Context
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $68,400, up 2.6% over the past 24 hours and roughly 7.6% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data.
The rebound comes after a broader correction that saw Bitcoin fall more than 50% from peak to trough before stabilising.
Geopolitics and Crypto Payment Rails
Van Eck also suggested that recent geopolitical tensions, including US and Israeli air strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation, may be contributing to renewed interest in crypto.
He speculated that digital assets could serve as alternative payment rails in regions facing banking constraints.
“When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around?” van Eck said. “It’s a very crypto-friendly region UAE, Dubai, everything.”
He added that crypto infrastructure could be preferable to relying on traditional banking systems in politically sensitive environments.
Bottom or Pause?
Van Eck’s view contrasts with analysts who argue that further downside remains possible, pointing to lingering macro uncertainty and potential liquidity tightening.
For now, the key question is whether the four-year cycle remains intact in an era of:
👉 Spot Bitcoin ETFs
👉 Sovereign and institutional accumulation
👉 Global regulatory shifts
If the historical pattern holds, 2026 may represent a cyclical bottom before the next multi-year expansion phase.
If it does not, Bitcoin’s price discovery may increasingly be shaped by macro capital flows rather than mining economics.
Either way, van Eck believes the worst of the correction may be nearing its end.
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