Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 186

April 15, 2026

GM. Bitcoin just made its move.

After two months of going nowhere…
we’ve finally got a breakout.

$74K is now the line in the sand.
Hold it and this could turn into something real.
Lose it and we’re straight back into the chop.

The market looks strong on the surface.
Stocks are pushing highs.
But sentiment still isn’t buying it.

And there’s something else…
This structure is starting to look very familiar.

We’ve seen this before.

The question is
Is this the start of the next leg up…
Or just another setup before the real move?

Let’s break it down. 👇

Table of Contents

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Bitcoin Makes Its Move

After over two months of consolidation, Bitcoin appears to have finally broken to the upside with intent in what could become the start of a trend.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin reached its highest level in over two months as it just tipped over the March high and reached $76,000. 

The $74,000 region has emerged as a key pivot point for Bitcoin in the past six weeks as it now acts as S/R. 

In an ideal world, Bitcoin holds $74,000 as support. However, if it drops below, the $71,500 remains as the high time frame key area to hold as support.

100DMA

The 100 daily moving average is proving to be the single most important factor for Bitcoin outside of the S/R levels covered above. 

As the chart shows, the past four times Bitcoin has come into contact with the 100DMA, it has rejected and then sold off. 

The main thing we want to take into account is the last time Bitcoin rejected, which was the start of the year's rally. 

This saw Bitcoin’s strong move end, which then resulted in a brutal leg down to the current $60,000 bottom. 

Bitcoin must avoid a repeat of this and get above the 100DMA as fast as possible.

Pattern 2.0

Bitcoin is strangely repeating a pattern from 2022, almost to the exact time frame and structure. 

In 2022, Bitcoin went on a 210-day downtrend before finding a bottom and then rallying 45% before the eventual cycle low came in. 

Currently, Bitcoin has been in a 182-day downtrend, a very similar amount of time to four years ago. 

Not only that, but the structure of the first leg down, consolidation, second leg down looks incredibly similar too. 

Now the question is, will Bitcoin put in a similar rally? If so, it could take Bitcoin towards $85,000 or even higher.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has been on a heater over the past seven trading days, as it surged rapidly towards the all-time high. 

It has recorded seven straight daily green candles in what has been a huge show of strength and demand. 

Still, the area towards $7,000 was a thorn in the side of the index as it struggled to enter another leg higher. 

From here, the S&P needs to simply tip over and hold above and we could see a fresh wave of upside expansion.

Lighter

Lighter’s DEX token $LIT has not had a nice time as of late, with the airdrop sell pressure weighing heavy. The token is down significantly from it’s launch price, reaching a local bottom at .78 before a strong push back up.

The token seems to be entering a period of consolidation, as sell pressure appears to be easing. We have now created a new range between the aforementioned low, and the local high at $1.3. 

A retrace here would be healthy price action, and should we come down to .90c, there is good risk reward for a long, with a stop slightly underneath the aforementioned low.

You can trade $LIT on Blofin here

Chocolate

This weeks commodity curveball is Cocoa, the key ingredient for chocolate. This has had a very interesting time as of late, with the price collapsing in a similar vein to your favourite memecoins. 

However, the last few weeks have seen some strength return to the market, with a strong bounce from a previous zone of accumulation. 

We’ve seen some incredibly strong candles and should this emulate it’s 2024 run, this could be a generational entry. Some headwinds persist, however we have outlined our agriculture/fertiliser bull thesis on the Crypto Saving Expert YouTube channel. This is a high risk, high reward play, but provides interesting exposure to a tasty treat!

You can trade Cocoa on PrimeXBT here

Fear And Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index has seen minimal change since last week and stays in Extreme Greed at 23. 

Despite a Bitcoin push, it appears as though sentiment needs something much larger to inject some positivity.

Gainers

Losers

FIFA Picked a Ghost: Inside the Prediction Market Deal Raising Serious Questions

FIFA's World Cup prediction market deal with ADI Predictstreet is raising questions about ownership, legality and why established players were overlooked.

Before a single ball is kicked at the 2026 World Cup, FIFA has already made one of its most controversial decisions.

On April 2, FIFA announced a multi-year partnership with ADI Predictstreet, naming it the official prediction market partner for the 2026 tournament. It marks the first time the organisation has introduced a prediction market into its commercial ecosystem.

There's just one problem.

At the time of the deal, the product barely existed.

What is a prediction market?

Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of future events, from match results to political elections, using contracts priced between 0 and 1 to reflect probability.

They've quickly become one of the fastest-growing areas in both crypto and financial markets, blurring the line between trading and betting.

But they are also one of the most legally contested sectors in the world.

The company behind the deal

ADI Predictstreet is marketed as a cutting-edge platform based in Abu Dhabi. In reality, it sits within a complex corporate structure tied to one of the most powerful investment networks in the Middle East.

The company is ultimately linked to International Holding Company (IHC), a vast conglomerate chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan, a central figure in the UAE's economic and political strategy.

Tahnoon's empire spans more than $1tn in assets, and his influence stretches across finance, technology and geopolitics.

This is not a startup story. It's a state-backed one.

A product that didn't exist

ADI Predictstreet is built on ADI Chain, a blockchain launched in December 2025. The prediction market platform was scheduled to go live on April 9, 2026, one week after FIFA announced the partnership. It did not. The platform missed its own launch date, quietly removed the April 9 countdown from its website, and is inoperative. FIFA's official World Cup prediction market partner had failed to launch, without any public explanation.

At the time of the deal, the platform had minimal public presence, with only a handful of social media followers and no proven track record in the space.

FIFA effectively signed a global deal for a product that had yet to launch, that had no market presence and no track record, on a chain whose native token isn't even in the top 100 crypto assets. When the launch date finally arrived, the platform didn't show up either.

What is ADI Chain?

Every trade on Predictstreet settles on ADI Chain, which describes itself as the first institutional Layer 2 network in the MENA region.

A Layer 2 blockchain which sits on top of Ethereum, it bundles transactions off the main chain and posts compressed proofs back to it. This delivers faster speeds and lower fees while inheriting Ethereum's security. ADI Chain claims a capacity of over 8,000 transactions per second and uses ZKsync's Airbender zero-knowledge proof system, which it says makes it the first public blockchain to deploy Airbender in production.

ADI Chain differs from its competitors due to its institutional focus. Rather than competing for DeFi developers, it is designed for governments, central banks, and regulated operators, with identity verification and anti-money-laundering rules built into the protocol layer rather than left to individual apps.

ADI Chain was founded by the ADI Foundation, a non-profit set up by Sirius International Holding, itself the digital arm of IHC. The chain's CEO, Andrey Lazorenko, has described its mission as onboarding a billion people onto blockchain by 2030, starting in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

ADI Chain's flagship live product, which came before Predictstreet, is the UAE Dirham-backed stablecoin (DDSC), which runs exclusively on ADI Chain. DDSC is licensed and supervised by the UAE Central Bank, backed 1:1 by Dirham reserves held at First Abu Dhabi Bank, making it one of the very few central-bank-supervised stablecoins anywhere in the world.

The people involved

The deal between FIFA and ADI Predictstreet has drawn scrutiny over the individuals connected to the project from the moment it was announced.

Ajay Bhatia, the principal council member who appeared alongside FIFA president Gianni Infantino in the partnership announcement, had previously settled insider trading allegations with India's Securities and Exchange Board (SEBI). The case related to trades in Adani Group shares worth more than $900,000, made after Bhatia allegedly received advance notice of a $2bn investment in the firm. Reports from investigative football magazine Josimar put the profit from those trades at around $60,000. Bhatia accepted financial penalties and a temporary trading ban without admitting wrongdoing.

Within 24 hours of Josimar publishing that story, ADI Predictstreet announced a new CEO.

Meet the replacement: Dimitrios Psarrakis

ADI Predictstreet named Greek economist Dimitrios Psarrakis as its incoming chief executive, describing him as "recognised among the world's leading voices in RegTech and blockchain." Psarrakis himself wrote on LinkedIn that it was "possibly the coolest project of my life."

What the announcement did not mention, and what Psarrakis has omitted from his CV, is his connection to one of the biggest political corruption scandals in European history.

Psarrakis worked for Eva Kaili for eight years. Kaili is a Greek politician who served as Vice President of the European Parliament before being arrested in December 2022 at the centre of Qatargate, a scandal in which European politicians were accused of taking cash bribes from Qatar ahead of that country hosting the 2022 World Cup. When investigators raided her home, they found a suitcase containing €720,000 in cash, with a further €150,000 found in a hotel room.

In September 2022, just three months before Kaili's arrest, Psarrakis co-founded the Brussels Council with her, a lobbying group targeting emerging technologies, where high-tech firms could pay up to €250,000 annually for membership. The pair had also co-authored a book together in 2021 on the economic impact of crypto.

According to investigative outlet Follow The Money, Psarrakis was investigated by European prosecutors probing whether Kaili used fraudulent money to pay her assistants. He was never charged. In the days after Kaili's arrest, he publicly voiced surprise at the accusations and claimed the pair had not worked together for several years, despite having co-founded the Brussels Council with her only months earlier.

His LinkedIn profile lists his time at the European Parliament from 2014 to 2021, followed by a three-year gap, before reappearing as a board member of the Washington-based Global Blockchain Business Council and a fellow at the Wharton Business School.

When asked about the connection, ADI Predictstreet issued a statement saying Psarrakis "collaborated with MP Eva Kaili until 2021, before her arrest."

The timing of the appointment, one day after Josimar's Bhatia story broke, and days after the platform launched, raised immediate questions across the industry. FIFA has so far made no comment on either individual.

For an organisation still rebuilding its reputation following the Blatter era and the controversy of Qatar 2022, the choice of commercial partner is striking, given the past histories of its key players.

Why not Polymarket or Kalshi?

The biggest question is why FIFA chose ADI Predictstreet over established platforms.

Polymarket dominates global prediction market volume and has signed major commercial deals, while Kalshi operates under US regulatory approval and has rapidly expanded into sports contracts.

Both, however, come with complications.

Polymarket is restricted in key jurisdictions, including the UK and parts of Europe. Kalshi is currently locked in legal battles across the United States over whether its contracts constitute financial products or gambling.

ADI Predictstreet, by contrast, offers FIFA something different: control, alignment and a direct relationship with Abu Dhabi capital.

The choice may not have been about the best product and track record, but the best partner for global access.

The real question: who owns the upside?

The legal fragmentation argument explains why Polymarket and Kalshi were difficult partners. It does not fully explain why ADI Predictstreet was chosen instead.

There is another theory, one that makes considerably more commercial sense when you look at it through FIFA's eyes.

Polymarket and Kalshi are established businesses with their own valuations, their own investor bases, and their own strategic agendas. A partnership with either would have given FIFA a seat at someone else's table. A revenue share, a licensing fee, a sponsorship arrangement, but fundamentally, FIFA would have been an add-on to a platform it did not control and could not shape.

ADI Predictstreet is something different. It is a platform in its infancy, backed by Abu Dhabi capital, with no existing user base and no embedded commercial relationships. Which means FIFA did not join someone else's ecosystem. It may have helped create one, on terms set at the very beginning, before any value has been built.

Build from the bottom, not slice from the top.

If FIFA's long-term ambition is to develop a proprietary gambling and prediction arm, to own a piece of the wagering infrastructure around its own product rather than simply licensing its name to someone else, then partnering with a nascent platform is not a weakness in the strategy. It is the strategy.

The logic is straightforward: a global sports rights holder that controls its own prediction market platform sits at every level of the value chain simultaneously. It owns the content, it licenses the matches, and it captures the trading activity that those matches generate. No platform fees paid to Kalshi. No profit share diverted to Polymarket's investors. The house is FIFA's house.

Seen this way, the choice of an unproven, barely-launched platform begins to look less like a due diligence failure and more like a deliberate starting position. You do not get equity in Polymarket by naming it an official partner. You do get favourable terms, potentially including equity, revenue participation, and structural control, when you are one of the founding commercial relationships of something that does not yet exist.

The Middle Eastern connection reinforces this reading. ADI Predictstreet is ultimately tied to IHC and the broader Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth ecosystem. FIFA's commercial relationships in the Gulf have been deepening for over a decade. This is not a transactional sponsorship deal. It may be the opening move in something considerably more ambitious: a jointly-built financial product anchored to the world's most-watched sporting event, with FIFA holding a stake in the infrastructure from day one.

That ambition, if it exists, would explain a great deal about why a platform with 135 Instagram followers (when research commenced for this article, they are now at the dizzying height of 2,700 followers) and no launch date beat the two most established prediction markets on the planet to the most valuable sports rights deal in the world.

The question FIFA has not answered, and has not been asked directly enough, is not just why ADI Predictstreet?

It is: what does FIFA actually own in this arrangement?

Prediction markets operate in one of the most fragmented regulatory landscapes of any financial product. For FIFA, a global organisation with 211 member associations, the question of who can actually use its official prediction market platform is not a minor detail. It is the central problem.

United States

The US is the world's largest sports market and home to one of the 2026 World Cup's three host nations. It is also where the legal battle over prediction markets is fiercest.

Kalshi operates as a federally licensed designated contract market under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which treats its products as event-based derivatives. But that federal approval has not settled the matter. Nevada, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Ohio and Maryland have all moved to restrict or ban prediction market platforms, arguing they constitute unlicensed sports wagering under state gambling law. A federal judge in Nevada ruled in late 2025 that Kalshi's sports contracts are subject to state gaming law, a decision Kalshi is appealing. The CFTC itself released a Prediction Markets Advisory in early 2026, signalling increased enforcement scrutiny. The legal status of sports prediction markets in the US remains genuinely unresolved.

ADI Predictstreet, with no CFTC registration and no state-level gaming licences, would currently be operating in legal grey territory across the entire American market.

United Kingdom

The UK's Gambling Commission has stated explicitly that it does not believe prediction markets can classify themselves as non-gambling products. The Financial Conduct Authority has not authorised any prediction market platform for retail access. For UK-based fans of England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, using ADI Predictstreet would require that platform to hold a UK Gambling Commission licence. It does not.

Europe

Across the continent, prediction markets are assessed under national gambling legislation rather than any unified EU framework. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Belgium have all applied remote gambling laws to restrict or block access to major platforms. Polymarket currently geofences users out of all five countries. Belgium has outright banned several operators through gambling legislation. Germany's state treaty on gambling creates significant hurdles for unlicensed operators. These are among the biggest football nations on earth, and home to some of the strongest World Cup squads.

Brazil

Brazil qualified for the 2026 World Cup and represents one of the largest sports betting markets in the world, having only recently legalised and regulated sports wagering. Its securities regulator (CVM) approved structured prediction market contracts in early 2026, but only for professional investors, and only for financial event contracts. Sports prediction markets remain in legal limbo: Brazilian law currently does not permit licensed sports betting operators to offer them, and no new framework has been created to accommodate them.

Africa and Asia

Across much of Africa and Asia, home to dozens of World Cup-qualified nations including Algeria, Ghana, Tunisia, Japan, South Korea, Morocco, Senegal, Saudi Arabia and Australia, prediction markets exist in a near-total regulatory vacuum. Most jurisdictions have no specific framework for them, which in practice means operating without authorisation. However, Australia's ASIC has taken enforcement action against unlicensed derivatives providers.

The net result

ADI Predictstreet holds a single licence: Gibraltar, population approximately 35,000. It has no confirmed regulatory approval in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Brazil, or any of the major markets across Africa or Asia where World Cup fans live.

For the official prediction market of the 2026 World Cup, a tournament spanning 48 teams from every corner of the globe, the addressable market for its own product, as things stand, is a British Overseas Territory smaller than most mid-sized towns.

For a global World Cup product, the legal reach is remarkably limited.

The bigger picture

FIFA has spent the past decade expanding its commercial model through deep ties with Gulf states. Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup. Saudi Arabia will host in 2034. Abu Dhabi has now entered the ecosystem through this deal.

Against that backdrop, the ADI Predictstreet partnership looks less like a standalone innovation and more like part of a broader strategic alignment.

This isn't just about prediction markets.

It's about who controls the next layer of global sports infrastructure.

The launch

On 9 April, ADI Predictstreet missed its own publicised launch date. Inside World Football reported that the platform had quietly removed the countdown that had promised an April 9 go-live, and the site remained inoperative.

In sign-up emails sent to early registrants, Predictstreet had promised: "Early users like you will have a head start, from unlocking rewards to helping shape the experience. From Day One." The company had also offered "limited tickets exclusively to users through upcoming activities and engagement on the platform", a reference to World Cup tickets used to drive early sign-ups.

None of it materialised. FIFA's official World Cup prediction market partner announced a launch date, promoted it with exclusive incentives, and then silently failed to deliver, with no public statement, no explanation, and no new timeline.

Visiting the site now takes users to a sign-up page masquerading as a demo test environment, where selecting a prediction market is actually just a link asking you to sign up to be notified when the platform becomes operational. There is no demo, no practice environment, and no indication of when the platform will go live.

The World Cup begins in June. The clock is running.

The verdict

FIFA has framed the deal as a step forward in fan engagement, a new way for audiences to interact with the game.

But the underlying details tell a more complicated story.

A newly launched platform. A tightly connected and controversial ownership structure. Legal uncertainty across most major markets. And established competitors left on the sidelines.

The question isn't whether prediction markets belong in football.

It's why this one does.

Sources

👉 FIFA official announcement, inside.fifa.com

👉 Front Office Sports: investigative reporting, frontofficesports.com

👉 Josimar Football: investigative coverage, josimarfootball.com

👉 Inside World Football: launch reporting, insideworldfootball.com

👉 UK Gambling Commission: prediction market guidance, gamblingcommission.gov.uk

The UK Housing Market Is Approaching a Structural Turning Point

A deep dive into the UK housing market reveals structural pressures building beneath the surface, from demographic shifts to weak wage growth and declining real returns.

The UK housing market hasn’t crashed.

But it may already be breaking, just slowly enough that nobody notices.

A growing body of analysis suggests the UK property market is not facing a sudden collapse, but something potentially more profound: a long-term repricing driven by demographics, affordability constraints and shifting capital flows.

At the centre of that argument is a simple but uncomfortable reality: too much wealth is concentrated in housing, and the next generation may not be able to afford it.

The scale of the imbalance

UK residential property is worth roughly £4tn, representing more than 40% of total household wealth. That is an extraordinary level of concentration in a single, illiquid asset class.

In effect, the UK is a property market with an economy attached.

This concentration has been built over decades, largely under conditions that no longer exist.

The boomer overhang

The generation born between 1946 and 1964 accumulated the majority of the UK’s housing wealth during a uniquely favourable period.

Mortgage rates fell from around 15% in the 1980s to roughly 4% over the following two decades. At the same time, lending multiples expanded significantly, allowing buyers to stretch further relative to income.

Today, that cohort holds an estimated £2.6tn in unmortgaged housing equity.

But demographics are shifting. The oldest members of that group are now approaching 80, and over the next 15 to 20 years, a large proportion of higher-value homes, often priced between £500k and £1.5m, will begin to come back onto the market.

The question is simple: who buys them?

The affordability wall

The answer becomes clearer when income data is considered.

A £1 m property typically requires a household income of around £250k at a 4x lending multiple. Yet the UK’s median household income sits closer to £35k, with even the top 10% earning roughly only £80k.

The pool of buyers capable of absorbing high-value housing stock is, by definition, extremely limited.

Compounding the issue is wage stagnation. Between 2010 and 2024, real median wages in the UK grew by just 2% in total. Forward projections suggest only modest growth of around 1% per year through the rest of the decade.

Prices surged. Incomes didn’t.

The myth of endless demand

For years, one of the most widely cited supports for UK housing has been foreign demand. But the data tells a different story.

Overseas buyer participation in prime central London has fallen sharply, from around 8% of purchases in 2009 to roughly 1% today. The total number of overseas-owned residential properties has also plateaued.

Meanwhile, prime central London prices have declined by nearly 25% from their 2014 peak in nominal terms, with even steeper losses once inflation is accounted for.

Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it has changed, and in some cases, retreated.

The buy-to-let squeeze

Another traditional pillar of the market, buy-to-let investment, is under increasing pressure.

Net rental yields in London now sit at around 3.4% after costs, below the yield available on UK government bonds. Unlike property, those bonds come without tenant risk, maintenance costs or liquidity constraints.

At the same time, a series of regulatory changes, including the removal of mortgage interest relief, higher stamp duty on additional properties and stricter rental standards, have significantly eroded profitability.

Property is no longer the obvious investment it once was.

The opportunity cost problem

Perhaps the most overlooked factor is what investors could have earned elsewhere.

Data from major asset managers shows that global equities have consistently outperformed UK residential property over long time horizons. In some cases, the gap is substantial.

For example, £100 invested in London property in 2016 would be worth around £111 by 2025. The same amount invested in a diversified equity portfolio would have grown to approximately £174.

For years, capital may have been allocated to housing not because it was optimal, but because it was familiar.

The slow repricing scenario

Rather than a sharp correction, the more likely outcome is a gradual erosion of value in real terms.

If inflation averages 3–4% annually, a property that simply holds its nominal price could lose around 30% of its purchasing power over a decade.

This kind of decline is difficult to detect in headlines, but significant in practice.

No crash. Just a quiet reset.

The bigger picture

The UK housing market is facing a convergence of forces: an ageing ownership base, weak income growth, tightening regulation and shifting global capital flows.

Individually, none of these factors guarantees a downturn.

Together, they suggest something more structural, a market that may no longer be supported by the conditions that drove its rise.

The risk isn’t that prices suddenly fall.

It’s that they stop rising, and everything built on that assumption starts to unwind.

Sources

Banks Push Back on Stablecoin Yield Debate: “They’re Asking the Wrong Question”

The US banking industry has responded to a White House report downplaying the risks of stablecoins, warning that policymakers may be focusing on the wrong problem entirely.

The American Bankers Association (ABA) says the real threat isn’t whether banning stablecoin yields boosts lending, it’s whether allowing them could quietly drain deposits from smaller banks.

White House: Impact “negligible”

The debate was sparked by a report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which examined the effects of banning yield on stablecoins.

Its conclusion: even if yield-bearing stablecoins were prohibited, the impact on bank lending would be minimal.

Under its baseline scenario, lending would increase by just $2.1 billion, roughly a 0.02% bump.

In other words, barely noticeable.

ABA: That’s not the real issue

The ABA says that the conclusion misses the point.

Chief economist Sayee Srinivasan and vice president Yikai Wang argued that the “live policy concern” isn’t about banning yield, it’s about what happens if yield is allowed.

Specifically, they warn of deposit outflows, particularly from smaller, community-focused banks.

Even if total deposits across the banking system remain stable, money could shift away from local institutions toward:

  • Large banks

  • Stablecoin platforms offering higher returns

That shift would raise funding costs for smaller banks and potentially reduce their ability to lend locally.

Pressure on community banks

The concern is structural.

Community banks typically rely heavily on customer deposits to fund loans. If those deposits move elsewhere, they may need to turn to more expensive wholesale funding.

Some may not have the balance sheet flexibility to absorb that shift at all.

The result: higher costs, tighter credit, and reduced lending at the local level.

Stablecoins already more attractive

The ABA also acknowledged a key reality: stablecoins offering yield could be far more attractive than traditional bank accounts.

For decades, many banks have paid near-zero interest on deposits.

Crypto leaders argue that’s exactly why stablecoins are gaining traction.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has repeatedly said yield-bearing stablecoins would force banks to compete more aggressively for deposits.

From that perspective, stablecoins aren’t just a new product; they’re a direct challenge to the traditional banking model.

Policy battle intensifies

The disagreement comes as lawmakers and industry groups negotiate new crypto legislation in the US Senate.

A key sticking point is whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield at all.

The outcome could shape how trillions of dollars move between banks, crypto platforms, and global markets in the years ahead.

The ABA represents some of the largest financial institutions in the US, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup.

The Bigger Picture

The debate over stablecoin yield is about more than interest rates; it’s about control of deposits.

Allow yield, and banks may face slow but steady outflows.

Ban it, and stablecoins may struggle to compete with traditional finance.

Either way, policymakers aren’t just deciding how crypto works, they’re deciding how the banking system evolves.

Sources

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