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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 188
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 188
GM.
Bitcoin has not broken $79K and is now sitting right at a key decision point after a strong run, with momentum starting to slow as it ploughs into resistance.
This level will likely determine whether the move continues higher or fades into another period of chop.
We’ve seen a similar structure before, where price grinds up into resistance before eventually rejecting, so this is a level the market can’t ignore.
Across the market, Ethereum is still holding relative strength near support, while altcoins like Dogecoin are starting to show early signs of movement after long periods of consolidation.
At the same time, sentiment remains in fear, and with the Fed decision today, there’s a clear macro catalyst that could decide the next move.
So the question is simple:
Does bitcoin break through and lead the market higher, or does this turn into another rejection?
Let’s break it down. 👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Hits A Hurdle
Bitcoin recorded its longest green streak since this time last year after last week’s candle closed in the positive. But, it is now at a critical point in this rally, determining if it continues or falls away.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has failed to break the huge resistance level at $79,000. This is a massive area for the price and a place where Bitcoin has struggled to overcome.
Should Bitcoin gain above, and it could then be a straight road towards $87,000-$90,000.
However, we cannot rule out potential ranging between resistance and support down at $74,000.
Repeating Pattern
Zooming out, bitcoin appears very similar to the structure from November to February.
The pattern resembles the same upwards channel with the price steadily grinding higher before reaching a peak at resistance.
What we know from last time is bitcoin lost all strength and capitulated to another leg down. If this were to happen again, it could see Bitcoin tumble towards or even below $50,000.
In an ideal world, this pattern does not repeat and bitcoin breaks higher.
Ethereum
Ethereum is still the strongest performing out of that and Solana. From here, if it can break the down trendline, then it could enter another stretch higher.
It has support right below, which it tested again on Monday. However, if that fails, a small drop lower would see it test S/R again.
This gives ETH a strong outlook as it is a minimal move to break to new local highs and has key levels right below.
Dogecoin
Dogecoin has begun moving up, leaving the consolidation range behind it.
DOGE tagged the exact low of 2024 back in February, and that still remains the low.
From there, the price settled into consolidation and potentially what may prove to be accumulation.
The big move for DOGE is a 44% rally into weekly S/R, but this would likely come from a market-wide push considerably higher.
Solana
Solana has been very interesting, showing a remarkable flatness despite overall pushes up in the market. This pattern feels like it is consolidating, and with a big patch of liquidity sitting just below. This could potentially set up a strong run to $124 should we hold this level and bullish sentiment returns. Below $70 could trigger a scary move down into the $40 so this is an area to watch for should we lose this level.
You can trade Solana on Blofin here
Apple
Apple is looking interesting ahead of their results, with the stock pushing up strongly from the range bottom. The range top sits at $280, however liquidity sits above that mark. From a fundamental point of view, Apple is sitting on a potentially strong quarter for it’s PC arm, with the Mac Mini craze and the MacBook resurgence remaining strong. Key risks potentially come from services, with the weakness of Spotify potentially being a warning to Apple Music.
You can trade Apple on PrimeXBT here.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index scored 26, remaining in Fear from last week.
While sentiment has been lifted slightly, there hasn't been enough to make a huge impact. It is clear that the market needs something more exciting to perk up some positive emotion.
A run towards $90,000 is likely to do the job.
Important Dates
Wednesday 29 April, 19:00 BST - Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Markets Committee meeting occurs eight times a year. The Fed meets to discuss recent economic data and the strength of the US economy and the expected decision is no change to rates.
The Federal Reserve is composed of a Board of Governors that assists its Chair, Jerome Powell, in making interest rate decisions and steering the US economy.
At 18:00 UTC, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Afterwards, a press conference will begin at 18:30, where Powell will conduct a 30-minute speech before taking questions from the press.
Thursday 30 April, 13:30 BST - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE data, which measures the average amount of money consumers spend monthly in the economy.
PCE is released in two formats: month-over-month and year-on-year. The data also removes volatile products, such as energy and food.
The year-on-year data is forecast to come in at 3.2%, with the previous data lower
Gainers
Losers
Study Finds 3.5% of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy, Not the Crowd
New research from the London Business School and Yale suggests that prediction market accuracy is driven by a small, informed minority, while most traders provide liquidity and absorb losses.
Prediction markets are often praised as the purest example of crowd wisdom in action.
But new academic research suggests that narrative may be misleading.
According to a paper from researchers at London Business School and Yale University, just 3.5% of trader accounts generate most of the meaningful price discovery on platforms such as Polymarket.
The remaining majority, researchers argue, contribute volume and liquidity, but very little informational value.
The Crowd May Not Be as Wise as It Looks
The revised paper, dated April 25, was authored by Roberto Gomez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Ingerslev Jensen and Howard Kung.
Using trading data from Polymarket between 2023 and 2025, the researchers concluded that market accuracy appears to come from a relatively small group of highly informed participants rather than mass collective intelligence.
“The remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it.”
“Prediction market accuracy thus reflects the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of the crowd.”
That finding challenges one of the most common assumptions surrounding prediction markets.
How the Study Was Conducted
The researchers examined Polymarket account activity and used a sign-randomisation test to estimate whether profits were driven by skill or luck.
Each account’s historical trades were reportedly simulated 10,000 times to create expected profit-and-loss distributions.
This allowed the researchers to compare real outcomes with randomised trading behaviour and identify accounts consistently outperforming chance.
The result: only a small slice of users appeared to generate a reliable informational edge.
The “Informed Minority” Makes the Money
The study divides profitable traders into multiple categories.
1. Market Makers and Skilled Takers
This informed minority collectively earns more than 30% of total gains across prediction markets.
Market maker accounts reportedly earned an average of $11,830 per account.
These traders are believed to either provide liquidity efficiently, price risk accurately or act quickly on superior information.
2. Lucky Winners
Another 29% of accounts were classified as profitable, but researchers described them as lucky rather than consistently skilled.
They benefited from favourable outcomes, but did not demonstrate repeatable edge.
3. Unlucky Losers
The remaining majority of traders absorbed the market’s aggregate losses.
In other words, many users effectively fund the profits of the better-informed minority.
Why Insider Trading Concerns Are Growing
The authors also flagged insider trading as a specific risk in prediction markets.
Unlike the public equities markets, many prediction market platforms operate with:
Pseudonymous accounts
Limited identity verification
Narrow event-specific contracts
Less regulatory oversight
Fast settlement cycles
Researchers argued these features can make prediction markets attractive venues for monetising private information.
“These features make prediction markets an attractive venue for trading on private information.”
That concern has become increasingly relevant as prediction markets expand into politics, economics, sports and geopolitical events.
Prediction Markets Have Exploded in Popularity
Once considered a niche experiment, prediction markets have become one of crypto’s fastest-growing use cases.
Industry data now shows more than $15 billion in monthly trading volume across platforms covering markets such as:
Presidential elections
Interest rate decisions
Sports outcomes
Company earnings
Celebrity and cultural events
Geopolitical conflicts
Platforms such as Polymarket have gained mainstream attention for pricing events faster than traditional polling or media coverage.
Most Traders Still Cannot Replace Their Salary
The study aligns with other recent research into trader profitability.
Earlier this month, crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov found that only 0.015% of prediction market traders earned profits consistent enough to realistically consider quitting their day jobs.
That analysis focused on users who generated at least $5,000 in profit for four consecutive months between April 2024 and April 1, 2026.
The implication is clear: sustainable success in prediction markets is rare.
Why This Matters
Prediction markets are often marketed as democratized forecasting systems where collective intelligence beats traditional experts.
This research suggests the reality may be closer to traditional markets:
A small number of skilled participants set efficient prices
Most users provide liquidity or entertainment volume
Some traders may hold private informational edge
The majority lose over time
That does not mean prediction markets fail. It may mean they work differently than many assume.
Final Thoughts
The wisdom of the crowd may still exist in prediction markets, but perhaps only indirectly.
The crowd provides participation, liquidity and incentive.
The real forecasting edge, according to this research, belongs to a small informed minority capable of pricing information faster and more accurately than everyone else.
As prediction markets continue growing, regulators and traders alike may need to rethink what these platforms really are: not collective truth machines, but competitive markets where information wins.
Western Union Targets May Launch for New Stablecoin as Crypto Push Accelerates
Western Union says its new USD-backed stablecoin USDPT is expected to launch in May as part of a wider crypto strategy, including a digital asset network and stablecoin payment card.
Global payments giant Western Union says it plans to launch its new U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin next month, marking a major step in the company’s broader move into digital assets.
Speaking during the company’s first-quarter earnings call on Friday, President and CEO Devin McGranahan said Western Union had crossed a key turning point in its crypto strategy.
It is no longer a question of if Western Union will be active in digital assets; it is now how fast can we scale.”
- Devin McGranahan, Western Union CEO
The announcement positions one of the world’s most recognisable money transfer brands to compete in the fast-growing stablecoin payments sector.
USDPT Stablecoin Expected to Go Live in May
At the centre of Western Union’s strategy is USDPT, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin first announced in October.
McGranahan said the token is now in its final stages of readiness.
“USDPT is now in its final stages of readiness and is expected to go live next month.”
- Devin McGranahan
The stablecoin is being built on the Solana blockchain and will reportedly be issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, one of the most prominent regulated crypto banking institutions in the United States.
That combination gives Western Union access to a fast blockchain network alongside a regulated issuance partner.
Why Western Union Is Entering Stablecoins
Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, allowing users to move value quickly on blockchain rails without the volatility of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
For Western Union, stablecoins could reduce friction in global payments by enabling:
Faster cross-border settlements
Lower treasury and transfer costs
24/7 movement of funds
Direct conversion between digital dollars and local currencies
Improved interoperability between banking and crypto systems
That is especially relevant for a company whose core business has long been remittances and international money movement.
Digital Asset Network Launching With First Partner
Western Union is also rolling out its Digital Asset Network (DAN), an infrastructure platform designed to connect stablecoins and cryptocurrencies with its global payments system.
McGranahan said the network would onboard its first partner this week.
The system is intended to help users move between crypto wallets and real-world cash services through Western Union’s global footprint.
“Our partner pipeline represents tens of millions of crypto wallets globally.”
- Devin McGranahan
The company believes DAN can solve one of the biggest pain points in crypto: converting digital assets into spendable local cash safely and efficiently.
360,000 Cash Collection Points Worldwide
Last month, Western Union said its Digital Asset Network would allow users to convert digital dollars into local currency at more than 360,000 collection points worldwide.
That could give stablecoin users access to one of the largest physical cash-out networks in the world.
For many emerging markets and underbanked regions, that bridge between blockchain assets and cash remains critically important.
Stablecoin Payment Card Coming Later This Year
Western Union also confirmed plans to launch a U.S. dollar stable card later this year.
The card is expected to allow users to:
Hold stablecoins
Spend stablecoins at merchants
Use digital dollars more like a traditional debit product
This would expand Western Union beyond transfers and into direct consumer spending infrastructure.
Traditional Finance Increasingly Embracing Stablecoins
Western Union joins a growing list of traditional financial institutions exploring or launching stablecoin products.
Banks, payment companies and treasury managers are increasingly viewing stablecoins as useful tools for settlement efficiency and cross-border transactions.
Earlier this month, Taurus co-founder Lamine Brahimi said banks and corporations across Europe were actively choosing infrastructure partners to support stablecoin adoption.
The message is clear: stablecoins are moving from the crypto niche to mainstream financial utility.
The Stablecoin Market Is Already Huge
According to DefiLlama, the stablecoin market is worth roughly $320 billion, with U.S. dollar-backed products dominating the sector.
Largest Stablecoins
Tether (USDT): $189.7bn
Circle USDC: $77.7bn
Sky Dollar: $8.2bn
Western Union’s USDPT will enter a highly competitive market, but with one major advantage: an existing global payments brand trusted by millions.
Why This Matters
Western Union’s move may be one of the clearest signs yet that stablecoins are no longer just crypto products.
They are becoming mainstream payment infrastructure.
If a company built on traditional remittances now sees stablecoins as core to its future, it suggests blockchain-based dollars may soon become a normal part of global finance.
The combination of regulated issuance, physical cash access and digital wallets could be especially powerful in international markets.
Final Thoughts
For years, stablecoins were viewed as tools mainly used inside crypto exchanges.
Now, firms like Western Union are treating them as the next generation of money movement.
If USDPT launches successfully in May, it could become a major milestone in the merging of traditional payments and blockchain finance.
And for Western Union, it may represent the biggest transformation of its business model in decades.
Kled AI: Data Goldmine or Digital Exploitation? A Critical Look at the “Human Data Marketplace"
Kled AI is rapidly growing as a ‘human data marketplace’ paying users for personal data. But critics warn of privacy risks, exploitation, and the potential rise of a surveillance economy.
Kled AI is one of the fastest-growing apps you’ve probably never properly questioned.
In just weeks, it has attracted hundreds of thousands of users, topped App Store charts in multiple countries and built what it claims is the largest opt-in human data collection network in history.
Its pitch is simple: upload your personal data, get paid.
But behind that simplicity sits a much more uncomfortable question:
Is Kled empowering users, or quietly building the infrastructure for a new kind of surveillance economy?
The Pitch: Get Paid for Your Data
Kled positions itself as a solution to one of AI’s biggest problems: data scarcity.
Its thesis is clear:
The internet has already been scraped
Existing data is low quality or synthetic
Future AI progress depends on fresh, real human data
So Kled built a marketplace where users can upload:
Photos and videos
Documents and text data
Behavioral and lifestyle data
Even linked platform data (Netflix, Uber, etc.)
In return, users are paid, sometimes repeatedly, creating what the company describes as a “continuous income stream.”
Top users are reportedly earning thousands per month.
On the surface, it sounds like a fair trade: you own your data, you get paid for it.
But that framing deserves scrutiny.
The Reality: Who Really Understands What They’re Selling?
Kled emphasises that its system is “opt-in” and “rights-aware.”
But consent in digital systems is rarely as clean as it sounds.
Ask yourself:
Do users fully understand how their data will be used?
Do they know which companies will train on it?
Do they grasp the long-term implications of handing over personal datasets?
Because this isn’t just social media content.
Kled is actively collecting and structuring data for:
AI training models
Healthcare datasets
Enterprise internal communications
Behavioral and egocentric data
Even military and real-world operational footage
That is not casual data sharing. That is industrial-scale human data extraction.
Why Southeast Asia Matters
Kled has seen strong traction in Southeast Asia, a region where income opportunities from digital platforms can be highly attractive.
That raises a more uncomfortable angle:
Is Kled creating opportunity, or targeting economically vulnerable users?
When people are offered money in exchange for personal data, especially in lower-income markets, the power dynamic changes.
This is no longer just “user empowerment.”
It becomes a question of:
Economic pressure
Informed consent
Long-term consequences vs short-term income
And historically, those dynamics rarely favour the individual.
The Incentive Loop: “We Have Them for Life”
One of the most revealing statements from Kled’s own materials is this:
“Once a user has been paid twice for uploading their data, we have them for life.”
That line should raise eyebrows.
Because it reveals the real mechanism at play:
Pay users early
Build habit and dependency
Lock in long-term data supply
This is not just a marketplace.
It is a behavioural system designed to continuously extract increasingly valuable data over time.
From Data Marketplace to Surveillance Layer?
Kled describes itself as a “filtering layer” that converts human behaviour into structured, high-value datasets.
But look at what that actually means:
Your daily life becomes training data
Your behavior becomes a product
Your experiences become machine input
At scale, this starts to resemble something bigger than a data marketplace.
It starts to look like infrastructure for continuous human observation.
The difference between:
“Uploading data”
and “being continuously modeled”
…is thinner than it appears.
The Corporate Side: Who Is Buying This Data?
Kled claims partnerships and pipelines with:
AI labs
Healthcare providers
Enterprise systems
Commerce platforms
It has also secured rights to massive datasets, including:
50m anonymised medical records
Hundreds of millions of media assets
Enterprise communications and operational data
That creates another critical question:
Who ultimately controls the outputs built from this data?
Because while users may get paid once, the value extracted from their data can compound indefinitely inside AI systems they will never have access to.
The Upside Case: Kled Might Be Early, Not Wrong
To be fair, there is a legitimate argument in Kled’s favour.
The current internet already extracts user data, mostly without paying users at all.
In that context, Kled could be seen as:
A more transparent system
A fairer compensation model
A necessary step toward data ownership
It also aligns with the growing shift toward:
Rights-based data licensing
Legal enforcement against data scraping
Paid participation in AI ecosystems
The idea itself is not inherently flawed.
The execution, and its implications, are where the real debate sits.
The Bigger Question: Is This the Start of a Surveillance Economy?
Kled frames its mission as unlocking the next phase of AI.
But zoom out, and the model suggests something larger:
Mass participation in data generation
Continuous monetisation of personal behavior
Centralised processing of human experience at scale
That is not just a product.
It is a potential shift in how human life itself is digitised and commoditised.
And once systems like this reach scale, they are very difficult to unwind.
What Users Should Think About Before Joining
Before uploading data to platforms like Kled, users should consider:
What exactly am I uploading?
Who will use this data?
How long will it exist?
Can it be deleted?
What future systems will this data train?
Because the trade being offered is not just money for data.
It is short-term income in exchange for long-term digital footprint expansion.
Final Thoughts
Kled is not obviously a scam.
The product works. The payments are real. The demand for data is real.
That is exactly what makes it worth questioning.
Because the most impactful systems are rarely the ones that fail.
They are the ones that succeed, and quietly reshape the rules underneath us.
Kled might be building the future of AI data infrastructure.
Or it might be building something much closer to a global, incentivised surveillance layer.
The difference will depend on how aware users are of what they’re really signing up for.
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