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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 193
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 193
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Bitcoin is heading into a key session with the Fed decision landing today.
The market is expecting rates to stay unchanged, so the real focus is on the dot plot, Warsh’s tone and whether risk assets get any room to breathe.
Sentiment is still fragile, but not dead. BTC is trying to hold structure, HYPE continues to show relative strength, and altcoins are starting to separate winners from noise.
Big day for the market.
Let’s break it down.👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin’s Last Stand
Bitcoin has witnessed somewhat of a bounce, but has yet to make a significant recovery. With this in mind, these could be a vital few weeks in determining Bitcoin’s fate.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is on the edge of two very different outcomes. It is testing the key S/R, which will likely act as a huge pivot point for the next move.
If it holds, Bitcoin could begin a bounce higher, towards $70,000 or above.
If it fails, Bitcoin could swiftly unwind and enter a downwards spiral.
For Bitcoin’s structure, this is a huge next few days and weeks.
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin has held the 200-weekly moving average for two weeks after testing it.
This is a positive sign, as holding above is a signal of high time frame strength and trend. While it remains above, Bitcoin has a bottom.
However, if it loses the 200WMA, then it could cascade down to the 300WMA. This is interesting as it lies within the $50,0000 region, where Bitcoin bottomed in the 2024 consolidation.
The gap between the two lines creates a huge disparity between the chaos and downtrend ending, and another brutal leg down.
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid is once again showing its strength in the market, hitting a new all-time high this week.
Still, the price appears unable to break the horizontal resistance, capping the upside for now. This is also creating horizontal resistance at the $75 region.
If HYPE breaks through this troublesome zone, it has nothing but clear skies ahead. Until then, the upside remains capped.
SpaceX
While SpaceX only IPO’d on Friday, we don’t have much price action to go off.
However, what we do have is the excitement, buzz and hype around the IPO and the company. It has already soared to become the fifth most valuable company in the world.
Still, there is currently only 5% of the float on the market, giving it a massive imbalance when it comes to supply and demand. But that will end in the coming months.
11 August 11 (Wave 1): +20% unlock → cumulative float rises to approximately 25%.
21 August: +7% unlock → cumulative float rises to approximately 32%.
10 September: +7% unlock → cumulative float rises to approximately 39%.
25 September: +7% unlock → cumulative float rises to approximately 46%.
10 October: +7% unlock → cumulative float rises to approximately 53%.
25 October: +7% unlock → cumulative float rises to approximately 60%.
9 December (180-Day Unlock): Remaining shares from the 180-day lockup become eligible for sale, bringing the total circulating/publicly tradable amount to approximately 58–60%.
13 June 2027 (Founder Unlock): Founder-held shares unlock, bringing the cumulative unlocked amount to approximately 100%.
Decision Day
Today’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve is projected with almost certainty to keep rates where they currently are (3.5%-3.75%), with Polymarket having this at 99%.
However, the real action will come in the dot plot and the press conference. The dot plot is an estimation of where they see rates heading over the term, and currently markers are pricing in no rate increases. Should we see the plots lean away from cuts and present a more hawkish view, we could see a repricing of risk assets.
AVAX
This week our eyes are on AVAX. We have seen some strength come back to altcoins and Avalanche has been forming a bullish uptrend. We have broken above the previous consolidation range and have begun a push back up to the previous range at $9. Should we go below $6.23, we would be invalidated and would look for lower entries.
You can trade AVAX on Yubit here.
Ondo
Ondo has been eye-catching in the last few months, with a strong push up. We have seen some upside liquidity taken, along with a retrace. We will be watching the liquidity zone at .33c for a reaction. Should this hold, we could be presented with some long opportunities to sweep the upper ranges of liquidity.
You can trade Ondo on Yubit here.
Important Dates
Wednesday 17 June, 19:00 BST - Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Markets Committee meeting occurs eight times a year. The Fed meets to discuss recent economic data and the strength of the US economy and the expected decision is no change to rates.
The Federal Reserve is composed of a Board of Governors that assists its Chair, Jerome Powell, in making interest rate decisions and steering the US economy.
At 18:00 UTC, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Afterwards, a press conference will begin at 18:30, where Powell will conduct a 30-minute speech before taking questions from the press.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index remains low, scoring just 22. This means it is still in Extreme Fear, with minimal optimism in the market.
Like discussed above, the lack of rebound could be worrying investors. However, all it takes is Bitcoin to launch a strong move to the upside to improve the current sentiment.
Gainers
Losers
Sam Bankman-Fried Formally Applies for Presidential Pardon From Donald Trump
Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has formally applied for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump as he continues efforts to overturn his fraud conviction and 25-year prison sentence.
Former FTX chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried has formally applied for a presidential pardon from US President Donald Trump, opening a new chapter in his ongoing battle to overturn the conviction stemming from the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange.
The application appears on the US Department of Justice Office of the Pardon Attorney website, which lists pending clemency requests as of June 1.
Bankman-Fried's request is categorised as a "pardon after completion of sentence," despite the former crypto billionaire currently serving a 25-year prison term following his 2023 fraud conviction.
Bankman-Fried Seeks Presidential Clemency
The pardon application marks the latest legal avenue pursued by Bankman-Fried as he attempts to challenge the outcome of one of the most significant criminal cases in crypto history.
The former FTX executive is currently appealing both his conviction and sentence after being found guilty on multiple counts related to the misuse of customer funds.
While presidential pardons are uncommon, they remain one of the few mechanisms capable of overriding federal criminal convictions.
It remains unclear whether the White House will seriously consider the request.
Trump Previously Rejected the Idea
The application may face an uphill battle.
During an interview with The New York Times in January, President Trump was asked directly whether he would consider pardoning Bankman-Fried.
His response was brief and unequivocal.
“No, I don't plan to.”
Despite that public rejection, Bankman-Fried has continued to pursue avenues that could eventually reduce or overturn his sentence.
Shift in Political Messaging Raises Eyebrows
In recent months, observers have noted a shift in Bankman-Fried's public messaging.
The former FTX CEO has posted a series of social media messages that appear more aligned with Trump's political positions than in previous years.
Some posts have highlighted the strong performance of US equity markets during Trump's second term, including gains in the S&P 500 index.
The timing of those comments has prompted speculation that Bankman-Fried may be attempting to improve his standing with the administration as he seeks clemency.
However, neither Bankman-Fried nor his legal team have publicly connected the posts to the pardon request.
Legal Appeals Continue
The pardon application is only one part of Bankman-Fried's broader legal strategy.
Earlier this year, he sought a new trial, arguing that newly available witness testimony could undermine aspects of the government's case against him.
The motion was filed in Manhattan federal court and sought to secure a retrial alongside his ongoing appeal.
Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the original criminal proceedings, later denied the request.
That leaves Bankman-Fried's appeal and pardon application as two of the most significant remaining avenues available to challenge his conviction.
One of Crypto's Biggest Fraud Cases
In November 2023, a jury found Bankman-Fried guilty on seven criminal counts, including fraud, conspiracy and money laundering.
Prosecutors argued that he orchestrated the misuse of customer funds deposited on FTX and directed billions of dollars toward Alameda Research, the trading firm closely tied to the exchange.
The collapse of FTX in November 2022 wiped out billions of dollars in customer assets and triggered one of the largest crises in cryptocurrency history.
Bankman-Fried has consistently maintained that he did not intentionally commit fraud.
Other FTX Executives Also Sentenced
Several former FTX executives have also received prison sentences after cooperating with authorities or pleading guilty.
Ryan Salame, who served as co-chief executive of FTX Digital Markets, was sentenced to 90 months in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy charges involving unlawful political contributions and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business.
Meanwhile, former Alameda Research chief executive Caroline Ellison received a two-year prison sentence after becoming one of the government's key witnesses during Bankman-Fried's trial.
Prosecutors cited her extensive cooperation as a major factor behind the lighter sentence.
Ellison was released from prison in January.
However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission subsequently imposed a 10-year ban preventing her from serving as an executive at any publicly traded company or digital asset exchange.
What Happens Next?
There is no timeline for when the White House may respond to Bankman-Fried's clemency request.
Presidential pardon applications often take months or years to be reviewed, and many are ultimately denied.
For now, the filing represents another attempt by the former crypto executive to overturn the consequences of the FTX collapse.
Whether the application gains traction remains uncertain, particularly given Trump's previous comments indicating he had no plans to issue a pardon.
OpenAI Files for IPO as AI Race Heats Up on Wall Street
OpenAI has confidentially filed for a US IPO, joining Anthropic and SpaceX-linked xAI in a growing wave of AI companies preparing for public market debuts.
OpenAI has confidentially filed paperwork for a US initial public offering (IPO), becoming the latest artificial intelligence giant to prepare for a potential stock market debut.
The company behind ChatGPT confirmed on Monday that it had submitted confidential registration documents to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), though it stressed that no timeline has been set for a public listing.
The move comes amid a booming AI investment cycle that has already seen rival Anthropic begin preparations for its own IPO and speculation build around an imminent public market debut for SpaceX, which owns Elon Musk's AI company xAI.
OpenAI Confirms Confidential Filing
OpenAI announced the filing on social media, acknowledging that details would likely emerge publicly despite the confidential nature of the process.
“We expect it to leak so we’re just announcing it,” the company posted on X.
However, OpenAI made it clear that investors should not expect an immediate listing.
“We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company.”
Confidential IPO filings allow companies to begin discussions with regulators and prepare offering documents without immediately disclosing sensitive financial information to competitors and the public.
AI Firms Rush Towards Public Markets
OpenAI's filing marks the third major AI-related IPO initiative announced this year.
Anthropic revealed plans on June 1 to pursue its own public listing, while SpaceX is widely expected to debut on US markets later this week.
The developments highlight the growing appetite among investors for exposure to artificial intelligence companies, which have become one of the dominant investment themes in global markets.
Shares linked to AI infrastructure, semiconductors and cloud computing have fuelled record highs across major US stock indices over the past year.
The enthusiasm has also helped drive private valuations to extraordinary levels.
OpenAI is reportedly targeting a valuation approaching $1 trillion, while Anthropic was recently valued at $965 billion following its latest funding round.
AI Boom Mirrors Crypto's IPO Wave
The rush of AI companies toward public markets comes after a strong year for technology and crypto-related IPOs.
Several major crypto firms have successfully listed in recent months, including:
Stablecoin issuer Circle
Trading platform eToro
Crypto exchange Bullish
Those listings attracted billions of dollars in investor demand and demonstrated that public markets remain receptive to high-growth technology businesses despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
Many investors now view AI as the next major sector capable of delivering similar growth opportunities.
OpenAI's Long-Term Vision Goes Beyond ChatGPT
Alongside the filing announcement, OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman and chief scientist Jakub Pachocki published a blog post outlining the company's broader ambitions.
One of the company's most ambitious goals is to develop AI systems capable of improving AI itself.
The pair argued that artificial intelligence is already beginning to reshape the global economy and raised questions about how advanced AI can be distributed fairly across society.
“A good AI future cannot be one where a small number of institutions control most of the capability and most of the upside,” they wrote.
Instead, they argued that AI should empower individuals, businesses and countries rather than concentrating power among a handful of technology firms.
Warnings Over Self-Improving AI Continue to Grow
The announcement comes as debate intensifies around the pace of AI development.
Anthropic warned last week that AI systems may soon reach the point where they can build, train and improve themselves without direct human involvement.
The company argued that development should proceed cautiously until the risks are better understood.
Those concerns have become increasingly prominent as AI capabilities continue to advance faster than many experts predicted just a few years ago.
AI Productivity Gains Are Reshaping Employment
The rapid adoption of AI is already having a noticeable impact on employment across the technology sector.
Many companies have cited productivity improvements from AI tools as a factor behind workforce reductions.
According to layoffs.fyi, nearly 117,000 technology employees have been laid off so far this year.
The crypto sector has also experienced significant workforce cuts.
More than 5,000 crypto-related jobs have been eliminated during 2026, with several firms pointing to AI-driven efficiencies as part of the rationale.
One of the largest reductions came from Block Inc., which cut approximately 4,000 employees in February as part of an AI-focused restructuring effort.
The Bottom Line
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing marks another major milestone in the artificial intelligence investment boom.
As investors pour capital into AI companies and public market listings accelerate, the sector is increasingly becoming the dominant growth story in technology markets.
While OpenAI has yet to commit to a timeline for going public, its filing signals that one of the world's most influential AI companies is preparing for the next stage of its evolution.
For investors, the race to gain exposure to AI's biggest winners may only be getting started.
Bitcoin Faces Fresh Pressure as Bank of Japan Delivers Highest Interest Rate Since 1995
Bitcoin could face renewed downside pressure after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to their highest level in three decades, with historical data showing BTC often struggles following BoJ tightening cycles.
Bitcoin's recovery from recent geopolitical turmoil may be facing a fresh challenge after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to their highest level in 30 years.
The central bank's decision has revived concerns about global liquidity conditions and sparked fears that Bitcoin could give back much of the ground it recovered following the recent US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
Historically, Bitcoin has often struggled in the weeks following Bank of Japan rate hikes, raising questions about whether another period of weakness could be ahead.
Bank of Japan Raises Rates to Highest Level Since 1995
On June 16, the Bank of Japan increased its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%.
The move marks Japan's highest interest rate since 1995 and reflects growing concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, rising energy costs and ongoing disruptions to global supply chains.
For decades, Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates, becoming one of the world's primary sources of cheap capital.
That era now appears to be drawing to a close.
Following the announcement, Bitcoin fell roughly 2.5% from its local high near $67,250, though it remains above the lows reached earlier this month.
History Suggests Bitcoin Could Face Further Weakness
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has often struggled in the aftermath of previous Bank of Japan tightening decisions.
Over the last four BoJ rate hikes, Bitcoin has averaged a decline of 5.74% during the following 30 days.
The previous examples include:
March 2024: Bitcoin fell 5.59%.
July 2024: Bitcoin fell 10.89%.
January 2025: Bitcoin fell 14.77%.
December 2025: Bitcoin gained 8.31%.
The December 2025 exception occurred after Bitcoin had already suffered a major correction, leaving the market heavily oversold before the rate decision.
As a result, many analysts view it as an outlier rather than evidence that higher Japanese rates are bullish for Bitcoin.
What Could Happen Next?
If Bitcoin follows its average post-BoJ performance, a 5.74% decline from current levels around $66,500 would place the cryptocurrency near $62,700.
That would bring Bitcoin close to a key demand zone between $59,000 and $62,000.
More severe declines could also be possible.
A repeat of the July 2024 drawdown would place Bitcoin near $59,200, while a move similar to January 2025's decline would imply downside toward approximately $56,700.
Some analysts have also highlighted broader post-BoJ correction phases, where Bitcoin ultimately lost between 26% and 38% after Japanese rate hikes.
Why Japan Matters to Bitcoin
The significance of Japanese interest rates extends far beyond the country's domestic economy.
For years, Japan's near-zero interest rate policy helped fuel the so-called "yen carry trade."
Investors could borrow Japanese yen at extremely low rates and invest those funds into higher-yielding assets around the world, including stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies.
As Japanese interest rates rise, that trade becomes less attractive.
Higher borrowing costs encourage investors to reduce leverage and unwind riskier positions, which can place downward pressure on assets such as Bitcoin.
This dynamic has become increasingly important as cryptocurrencies become more integrated into global financial markets.
Bitwise Researcher Sees Broader Warning Signs
André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, noted that Bank of Japan tightening cycles have frequently coincided with periods of economic weakness in the United States.
Historically, Japanese rate hikes have often occurred late in the global economic cycle, when inflation remains elevated, and liquidity conditions begin to tighten.
In such environments, risk assets typically face greater headwinds as investors become more defensive.
Bitcoin, which remains one of the most volatile risk assets available to investors, is often among the first markets to react.
Geopolitics and Central Banks Continue to Drive Markets
The latest rate hike comes just days after Bitcoin rallied on news of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
While geopolitical developments have provided short-term support, monetary policy continues to play a major role in determining broader market direction.
Investors are now balancing hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East against the prospect of tighter global financial conditions.
The result is a market that remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin has managed to hold onto much of its recent recovery despite renewed pressure from the Bank of Japan's latest interest rate hike.
However, historical data suggests caution may be warranted.
Previous BoJ tightening cycles have often been followed by meaningful Bitcoin corrections, particularly as global liquidity conditions deteriorate and investors unwind leveraged positions.
While no two market cycles are identical, the latest move by Japan's central bank serves as a reminder that Bitcoin's price action is increasingly tied to global macroeconomic trends.
If history repeats, the battle to hold above the $60,000 level may not be over just yet.
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