Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 194

GM.

Bitcoin is heading into a crucial few days as the market continues to sit at one of the most important levels of the year.

Sentiment is fragile, risk assets are under pressure, and some major names are starting to flash warning signs.

But it is not all one-way traffic. There are still pockets of strength, key set-ups forming, and a few sectors starting to separate from the rest of the market.

This is the kind of environment where patience matters, levels matter, and confirmation matters even more.

Big week ahead.

Let’s break it down.👇

Table of Contents

• Bitcoin

• 200WMA

• MicroStrategy

• Monero

• Memory

  • MU

• Important Dates

  • Gainers

  • Losers

• Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Price Target by $500 as Fe …

• Stablecoins Surge Into The Mainstream As Bitcoin F …

• Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Crash Below $24,000 If …

Stonksy is back! 

The relaunch of Stonksy is here and it’s better than ever. There’s been a lot going on behind the scenes so far this year, with some big updates and developments coming to users. 

Stonksy has also begun pushing out new trading strategies and you can get 50% off your first month today! 

Use code VIDEO50 at checkout on the Monthly plan to redeem your half price first month.

Sponsored by: Yubit

Why Yubit?

All-In-One Trading Platform: Trade crypto futures, gold, silver, oil, forex, indices and stocks from one account.

500+ Trading Pairs: Access a wide range of markets, from major crypto assets to meme coins and selected TradFi products.

TradFi CFD Access: Yubit offers 100+ traditional finance CFD pairs, including markets like Gold, Silver, S&P 500, NAS100, US30, NVIDIA, Tesla and Amazon.

No KYC Required: Create an account quickly and start trading without lengthy verification delays.

Zero Fees on TradFi Products: Trade selected markets such as gold, indices and oil with zero trading fees.

Up to 500x Leverage: Yubit offers high leverage on selected TradFi products, giving active traders more flexibility.

Deep Liquidity: Designed to support fast execution and reduce slippage, especially during volatile market conditions.

Security & Transparency: Yubit highlights a 20,000 ETH protection fund, 100M+ USDT reserve and 1:1 proof of reserves.

Yubit Card: Spend USDT directly worldwide and use crypto profits in real life without needing to off-ramp first.

Yubit Earn: Put idle funds to work with flexible, fixed and auto earn options, with APRs available up to 120%.

Easy On-Ramp: Buy crypto directly inside the platform, making it simple for new users to get started.

Yubit brings crypto and traditional markets together in one simple, non-KYC trading platform. Whether you trade crypto, gold, stocks, oil, forex or indices, Yubit gives you access to multiple markets from one account.

Sign up through our exclusive link below to unlock the latest welcome bonus campaign, VIP fee discounts and access to Crypto + TradFi markets all in one place:

👉 Join Yubit Today🔗!

Bitcoin On The Brink

Bitcoin is on the verge of either putting in a Summer rally or cascading down in another price collapse. We’ll show you why.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has formed a consistent range this month, with $61,000 acting as support and $65,000 as resistance. 

This leaves Bitcoin in a state of consolidation as it drifts between these two regions. 

The sideways chop will continue until Bitcoin fully breaks either end, so a break up or a break down.

200WMA

Zooming out to the weekly time frame, Bitcoin is testing the 200-week moving average for the fourth week running. 

The past three weeks have seen Bitcoin explore below, but crucially close above the 200WMA. 

Ultimately, this is the vital point. While above, BTC can look for a large bounce. If it breaks below, that is a huge warning sign for the market.

The $50,000 - $54,000 is already a strong contender for Bitcoin to be dragged towards, but now the 300WMA is also within that region.

MicroStrategy

Strategy stock is already at the point of huge danger. It is testing below the weekly demand zone that has held the price up for the past two and a half years. 

This is a massive marker, as if it closes the week below, it could suggest a cascade for MSTR in the coming weeks. 

There is minimal price action for MSTR until $70, a 30% drop from here. However, it could even trade within and test the full range of $45 - $70. 

It cannot be underestimated how important the coming weeks are for BTC and MSTR. 

You can trade MSTR stock on Yubit here.

Monero

Monero is one of the few altcoins that appears to have a positive outlook. 

XMR is currently bouncing off S/R, from which it has tested numerous times over the past year. 

This suggests that while the price holds above, it could bounce to the upside. 

On a high time frame, XMR is in a range, and this could eventually take the price back into a test of resistance at $420.

Memory

Today is a key day for the memory sector. Various fears and catalysts triggered a sell-off in memory names in the Asia session yesterday, with MU down 13% and the wider benchmark ETF DRAM down 14%. 

Memory has had an incredibly hot year, as prices surge on the AI build-out. We have seen several of these sharp pullbacks, and each has presented a great opportunity to ride to new highs.

We expect this is likely to continue, and this pullback gives a great opportunity for exposure, with cheap invalidation.

MU

The main catalyst is the earnings for Micron MU. Should we see continued growth and upward revision to those surging forward forecasts, we could see appetite flow back into memory. 

A sweep of the highs with invalidation below the lows gives a potential reversal set-up.

You can trade MU on Yubit here.

Important Dates

Thursday 25 June, 13:30 BST - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE data, which measures the average amount of money consumers spend monthly in the economy. 

PCE is released in two formats: month-over-month and year-on-year. The data also removes volatile products, such as energy and food. 

The year-on-year data is forecast to come in at 3.4%, with the previous data lower.

Fear And Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index remains unchanged and in Extreme Greed. 

The Index scores 17, so deep within the zone investors seem panicked, worried, and fearful of Bitcoin’s current position. 

This comes as no surprise, as outlined above, Bitcoin is at a do-or-die position.

Gainers

Losers

Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Price Target by $500 as Fed Rate Cuts Fade Further Into Distance

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 per ounce as expectations for US interest rate cuts continue to fade, creating potential headwinds for both gold and crypto markets.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold forecast by $500 per ounce, citing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer than previously anticipated.

The investment bank now expects gold to finish the year at $4,900 per ounce, down from its previous forecast of $5,400.

The revision comes as markets increasingly abandon hopes for near-term rate cuts, a shift that could also weigh on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

Goldman Pushes Back Rate Cut Expectations

According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven now expect the Federal Reserve's next rate cuts to potentially be delayed until 2027.

The bank's latest projections suggest cuts may not arrive until March 2027 and December 2027.

That represents a significant shift from earlier expectations that policymakers would begin easing monetary policy much sooner.

Despite the downgrade, Goldman remains positive on gold's long-term outlook.

Why Higher Rates Matter For Gold

Gold does not generate yield or income.

As a result, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal compared with cash, bonds and other yield-generating assets.

When rates remain elevated, investors can often earn attractive returns from lower-risk assets, reducing the appeal of gold.

Many analysts believe the precious metal's rally earlier this year was partially driven by expectations that lower rates and easier monetary conditions were approaching.

As those expectations fade, investors are reassessing how much they are willing to pay for gold.

Gold Has Already Fallen Sharply

Gold prices have already retreated significantly from their January highs.

After reaching an all-time high of $5,327 per ounce earlier this year, gold has fallen more than 22%.

The metal is now trading just $135 above the psychologically important $4,000 level.

A move below that threshold would mark gold's lowest price since November.

The correction has occurred despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflict in the Middle East, which would normally support safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin Facing Similar Challenges

The same macroeconomic pressures affecting gold are also weighing on cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin has fallen 28.3% since January as investors grapple with rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and a Federal Reserve that appears reluctant to cut rates.

Lower interest rates typically support both Bitcoin and gold by improving liquidity conditions and encouraging investors to seek higher-return assets.

With rate cuts increasingly pushed further into the future, that liquidity-driven investment thesis has weakened.

Recent inflation data has only reinforced those concerns.

The US Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, remaining well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target.

Markets No Longer Expect Easy Money

CME Group's FedWatch tool currently indicates a high probability that interest rates will remain unchanged or potentially move higher throughout the remainder of 2026.

The current target federal funds rate sits between 3.5% and 3.75%.

As long as inflation remains elevated, policymakers have little incentive to begin aggressively easing monetary policy.

That has created a difficult backdrop for assets that benefited from the era of abundant liquidity and low borrowing costs.

What Needs To Change?

According to HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun, a meaningful recovery in risk appetite will likely require several factors to align.

Inflation must continue falling, interest rate cuts need to become realistic, and overall liquidity conditions must improve.

Until then, both gold and cryptocurrency markets could remain vulnerable to further downside pressure.

While Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold over the longer term, its latest forecast reduction highlights how significantly the macroeconomic landscape has shifted over the past few months.

Stablecoins Surge Into The Mainstream As Bitcoin Faces Macro Headwinds

Stablecoins are rapidly becoming a key part of global finance as Bitcoin struggles with macroeconomic uncertainty, highlighting a growing shift toward real-world blockchain adoption and digital payments.

Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, with traders remaining cautious amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rate policy.

However, beneath the surface, a much larger trend is gathering pace across the digital asset industry.

While Bitcoin remains under pressure, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors in global finance, with increasing adoption across emerging markets, cross-border payments, and regulated financial services.

According to recent reports, stablecoin usage is rising rapidly in regions where traditional banking infrastructure remains expensive or inefficient.

Countries such as Nigeria have seen significant growth in stablecoin-based transfers as users seek faster and lower-cost alternatives to conventional payment rails.

Bitcoin Stalls Following Federal Reserve Decision

The Federal Reserve recently chose to leave interest rates unchanged, marking another closely watched meeting for investors across both traditional and digital asset markets.

Although the decision itself was widely expected, markets reacted negatively to a more cautious outlook from policymakers.

Bitcoin fell from recent highs as investors reduced exposure to risk assets and reassessed expectations for future monetary policy.

Many analysts believe that uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts could continue to create short-term volatility for cryptocurrencies throughout the summer.

Read more about the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decisions here:
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Stablecoins Becoming A Global Financial Infrastructure Layer

While speculative trading activity has cooled, stablecoins are increasingly being used for real-world payments and settlements.

The International Monetary Fund recently highlighted growing stablecoin adoption in Africa, particularly for cross-border transactions where users often face high remittance fees and slow settlement times.

Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar.

This makes them particularly attractive for international payments and savings in regions experiencing currency volatility.

Learn more about stablecoins here:
What Are Stablecoins?

Regulatory Frameworks Continue To Expand

Another major development supporting stablecoin growth is the increasing regulatory clarity emerging around the world.

In Europe, firms are actively securing licenses under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework ahead of upcoming compliance deadlines.

Industry participants believe clearer regulation could encourage greater institutional participation while helping to build trust among retail users.

As governments and regulators establish clearer rules for digital assets, stablecoins are increasingly being viewed as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain technology.

For more information about MiCA regulation:
European Union MiCA Framework

What Could This Mean For The Crypto Market?

Historically, major infrastructure developments have often preceded broader growth cycles within the cryptocurrency sector.

While Bitcoin continues to dominate headlines, many industry observers believe stablecoin adoption could represent one of the most significant long-term trends currently unfolding.

The increasing use of digital dollars for payments, settlements, remittances, and tokenised assets may ultimately provide the foundation for the next phase of blockchain adoption.

Whether Bitcoin immediately resumes its upward trend or not, the continued expansion of stablecoin infrastructure suggests that digital assets are becoming increasingly integrated into the global financial system.

Final Thoughts

Short-term market volatility remains heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and central bank policy.

However, the rapid growth of stablecoin adoption across emerging markets, financial institutions, and regulated jurisdictions highlights a broader transformation taking place within digital finance.

As the industry continues to mature, stablecoins may prove to be one of the most important developments shaping the future of cryptocurrency.

Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Crash Below $24,000 If Stock Market Bubble Bursts

Bitcoin could plunge by more than 60% to below $24,000 if the US stock market suffers a major crash, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson, as institutional demand for BTC continues to weaken.

Bitcoin could be facing a brutal downside scenario if a major stock market correction unfolds, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson.

The analyst believes Bitcoin (BTC) could tumble by more than 60% from current levels and potentially revisit prices below $24,000 if a severe macroeconomic downturn triggers a broad sell-off across risk assets.

The warning comes as institutional demand for Bitcoin remains weak, with persistent ETF outflows and a negative Coinbase Premium suggesting professional investors are continuing to de-risk their crypto exposure.

$24,000 Emerges As Worst-Case Target

In a post shared on Sunday, Olson highlighted a long-term support line generated using his proprietary Market Sniper Pro volume-weighted average price (VWAP) indicator.

The model points toward a downside target of approximately $23,980 in the event of a severe market downturn.

The support level is derived from a custom anchored VWAP model, which tracks the average price of an asset weighted by trading volume from a specific starting point.

In this case, Olson anchored the indicator from Bitcoin's 2022 bear market low, producing a long-term trendline that now sits near the $24,000 level.

According to the analyst, this scenario would likely require a significant collapse in traditional financial markets, particularly a stock market decline exceeding 50%.

Could Stocks Really Crash That Far?

Several high-profile investors and economists have recently warned that the current market environment may be increasingly fragile.

GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has repeatedly described the ongoing artificial intelligence boom as a major speculative bubble, while investor Michael Burry has compared the current rally to the final stages of the Dot-com bubble.

Meanwhile, economist Gary Shilling recently warned that a US recession is "almost inevitable" by the end of the year and suggested stocks could fall between 20% and 30%.

If such a scenario were to escalate into a more severe market event, Bitcoin could once again trade like a high-beta risk asset and suffer disproportionately large losses.

Institutional Demand Remains Weak

Beyond the technical picture, several indicators suggest institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains subdued.

One of the clearest signals comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance.

A positive premium generally signals stronger US institutional buying, while a negative reading often indicates weaker demand or increased selling pressure.

Throughout much of 2026, the indicator has remained negative, suggesting institutions have yet to return to the market with conviction.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are showing a similar trend.

Since May, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of approximately $4.68bn, according to data from SoSoValue.

The persistent outflows indicate that professional investors remain cautious despite Bitcoin's attempts to stabilise.

Investors Want Confirmation, Not A Falling Knife

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes institutional investors are approaching the market very differently from retail participants.

In other words, institutional capital is unlikely to return aggressively until market conditions improve and Bitcoin begins to demonstrate a more sustainable recovery.

Not The First Sub-$30K Warning

Olson is not alone in suggesting that Bitcoin could revisit much lower levels if macro conditions deteriorate further.

Several analysts, including Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn and trader Crypto Kid, have previously suggested that Bitcoin could fall below $30,000 if a significant stock market crash occurs.

For now, the $24,000 target remains a worst-case scenario rather than a base-case forecast.

However, with institutional demand still weak and concerns surrounding the broader economy continuing to build, investors are increasingly paying attention to downside risks that seemed unimaginable just a few months ago.

We’re excited to offer you a massive 35% discount!

What You Unlock:

- Strategies from top crypto experts
- Exclusive access to market insights, guides, and top tips
- Tools to maximise your crypto savings and investments
- A supportive community of like-minded crypto enthusiasts
- Access to our community Discord

Use the code 35OFF at checkout to claim your discount and get full access to our community plan for just a fraction of the price.

Secure your spot in the Crypto Saving Expert Community today.

Sponsored by: Stonksy

Stonksy is a momentum identifier that aims to capture expansive market moves before they happen by highlighting the start of potential price shifts. It can be used across all markets, including crypto, stocks, indices, commodities, and currencies. 

Stonksy is growing in users week-on-week, proving why it aims to become one of the most-used indicators in the industry. 

You can get 25% off the annual Stonksy plan with code TMG25, taking the price down to just £749.25 for an entire year of full access. Sign up here.

Find examples of Stonksy indications posted to the X every day: @stonksyio  and learn how to use Stonksy and how it can benefit your trading system on the YouTube channel, with daily livestreams at 12:00 UTC.

This Newsletter is strictly for informational purposes only; the content is generic and has not been tailored in any way. Crypto Saving Expert UAB (“CSE”) is not providing, and should not be interpreted as providing, any form of offer of any currency, security, financial instrument or digital asset, or investment advice, recommendations or strategy. The content of this Newsletter is not intended to replace your own research with regard to any assets, products or services, and any action taken on the basis of this material is entirely at your own risk. CSE neither accepts nor assumes any liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of, or in any way connected to, the Newsletter content. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets may be unregulated in your jurisdiction, any profits may be subject to tax and the value of any investment could fall.  

If you click on a link within this Newsletter to go through to a provider, we may get paid. This usually only happens if you get a product/use a service from it. This is what helps fund CSE and keeps the majority of our content free to use. Two crucial things you should know about this, however: a) this never impacts our editorial recommendations, if something is included, it is because we independently rate it as the best; and b) you will always get as good a deal, or better, than if you went direct. For full details on how CSE is funded, please click here.

CSE collects, processes and stores certain data. Such data may be shared with CSE’s wholly owned subsidiary company, Crypto Saving Expert Limited. Please note that by submitting information about yourself to CSE you are consenting to such use. For full details on our collection, processing and storage of data, together with your rights in relation thereto, please consult our Privacy Statement here.