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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 197
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 197
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Bitcoin is finally showing signs of life after weeks of frustrating sideways price action.
The market is attempting to break out, but with fear still high and plenty of uncertainty across global markets, the next move is far from guaranteed.
The second half of July has historically produced some interesting moves for Bitcoin, and we are now approaching several levels that could decide whether this rally has real momentum.
This could be the beginning of something bigger, or another move designed to catch traders off guard.
Patience and confirmation remain key.
Let’s break it down.👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin On The Move
Bitcoin is attempting a breakout move, after a month and a half of consolidation. The second half of July is historically bullish in bear market years, will it repeat?
Bitcoin
Bitcoin could be on the cusp of breaking out of its low time frame range, which was built between $61,500 and $64,500.
Currently, Bitcoin closed Tuesday’s daily candle above the range high resistance, and Wednesday’s price action has been testing it for support.
If Bitcoin holds, it could then begin an uptrend towards $67,500, and potentially $73,000 if July repeats historical patterns, which we will cover below.
July 2018
There is a definitive pattern of how July performs in bear market years. However, it can actually be boiled down to the last two weeks of the month.
As seen above, the first half of July 2018 witnessed Bitcoin go sideways, before then rallying in the second half of the month.
July 2022
Moving into July 2022, we can see the exact same pattern in this bear market as 2018.
July starts off slow, and Bitcoin goes sideways.Then, as the month progressive into the last two weeks, the price begins an uptrend and starts to push upwards.
Given we have this data and patterns, it is not out of the question we see it occur this time around again.
Moving Averages
Bitcoin’s 100DMA and 200DMA are key factors to watch should Bitcoin begin an uptrend for the rest of the month.
These two have played vital roles in the high time frame downtrend, and could again.
Naturally, Bitcoin would hit the 100DMA first, but it has already conquered this once before in the April/May rally.
On the other hand, the 200DMA marked the top of that rally as Bitcoin rejected, so could be another decisive point if it reaches it.
DRAM
Over the weekend, we covered some zones for memory, on the back of the shortage that has seen names in the sector go parabolic. SK Hynix listed in New York this week and has helped the sector rebound following the sharp sell-off. The DRAM ETF is a memory ETF which comprises the key names.
As we covered last week, this zone presents a great S/R retest and could signal a local bottom for DRAM.
Trade DRAM on Blofin.
Important Dates
Wednesday 15 July, 13:30 BST - Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is also responsible for PPI, which measures the average change in commodity prices. Similar to core inflation, PPI removes volatile goods from its findings. The forecast is set at 5.2%, with the previous data at 4.9%.
Thursday 16 July, 13:30 BST - US Retail Sales
The retail sales data is published by the Census Bureau and comprises two pieces of data: the month-over-month (MoM) and the control group.
The MoM figure measures the monthly changes in retail sales, demonstrating consumer confidence to spend money in the economy. This figure is forecast at 0.2%, with the previous figure at 0.9%.
The second figure is the control group, which measures the entire industry sales and estimates the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods. The control group data is forecasted at 0.5% with the previous at 0.7%.
Friday 17 July, 15:00 BST - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan releases the index, which is a survey depicting consumer confidence in the economy. The survey provides insight into consumers’ confidence to spend money within the US economy.
The Index’s score is set to come in at 51, with the previous data coming in at 49.5.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index remains unchanged, within Extreme Fear, scoring 25.
However, it is close to pushing into Fear, demonstrating a slight uplift in sentiment.
If Bitcoin rallies into the end of July, sentiment could see a huge resurgence.
Gainers
Losers
Oil Is Climbing Again. Here’s Why Every Bitcoin Investor Should Be Paying Attention
Oil prices have surged following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Discover why higher energy prices could affect inflation, Federal Reserve policy and Bitcoin in the weeks ahead.
The biggest story in financial markets today is not simply that oil prices are rising. It is what higher energy costs could mean for inflation, interest rates and the next move in Bitcoin.
Renewed military tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices sharply higher as traders assess the risk of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes.
Brent crude climbed more than 4% following fresh strikes involving the United States and Iran, while investors across global markets adopted a more cautious approach.
For cryptocurrency investors, the consequences extend far beyond the energy market.
Why Oil Matters More Than Ever
Oil is not simply another commodity. It is one of the most important drivers of inflation across the global economy.
When energy prices rise, transport, manufacturing and business costs often increase as well. Those higher costs can then be passed on to consumers through more expensive goods and services.
This raises the risk that inflation remains elevated for longer than expected.
That matters because persistently high inflation can make central banks less willing to reduce interest rates. Higher borrowing costs are generally less favourable for risk assets such as Bitcoin and technology shares, as investors can obtain more attractive returns from cash and government bonds.
In simple terms, rising oil prices can make the economic environment more difficult for speculative and growth-focused investments.
Bitcoin Is Increasingly Trading Like A Macro Asset
Just a few years ago, Bitcoin’s biggest price catalysts were usually specific to the cryptocurrency industry.
Exchange failures, regulatory announcements, network upgrades and halving events often dominated market sentiment.
Today, the market has changed.
Institutional investors now account for a much larger share of Bitcoin trading activity, particularly following the growth of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury holdings.
As a result, Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to the same macroeconomic forces that influence global equities, bonds and currencies.
Oil prices, inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy now play a major role in short-term cryptocurrency price movements.
As geopolitical tensions intensified, Bitcoin weakened alongside other risk assets while investors shifted towards more defensive positions.
Why The Strait Of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes.
A significant share of global oil supplies passes through the narrow waterway, which connects major energy producers in the Middle East with international markets.
Any threat to shipping through the strait immediately raises concerns over potential supply shortages.
Even when shipping has not stopped completely, the risk of disruption can be enough to push oil prices higher as traders price in the possibility of reduced supply.
That uncertainty can quickly spread beyond energy markets, affecting inflation expectations, bond yields, currencies and investor appetite for risk.
For Bitcoin investors, this is therefore not simply a geopolitical story. It is also a major macroeconomic one.
How Rising Oil Prices Can Affect Bitcoin
The relationship between oil and Bitcoin is indirect, but it can still be important.
Higher oil prices can contribute to stronger inflation, which may encourage central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.
That can reduce liquidity across financial markets and make investors less willing to hold volatile assets.
Bitcoin often struggles during periods when markets expect tighter monetary policy, particularly when bond yields are rising and the US dollar is strengthening.
By contrast, falling oil prices can help ease inflation concerns and support expectations for lower interest rates, creating a more favourable backdrop for risk assets.
This does not mean Bitcoin will always fall when oil rises. However, during periods of heightened economic uncertainty, the connection can become much more significant.
What Investors Should Watch Next
Markets are likely to remain focused on several key developments over the coming days.
Further military and diplomatic developments in the Middle East.
Movements in Brent crude and other major oil benchmarks.
Changes in inflation expectations and bond yields.
Comments from the US Federal Reserve on interest rates.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows and broader institutional demand.
If oil continues to climb, investors may begin pushing back expectations for future interest-rate cuts.
That could create further pressure on Bitcoin and other growth-focused assets, particularly if wider financial markets also become more defensive.
However, strong institutional demand or renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could help offset some of that weakness.
Why Macro Conditions Now Matter So Much
Bitcoin has matured into a much larger and more widely held financial asset.
That growth has brought greater liquidity and institutional involvement, but it has also made Bitcoin more exposed to developments outside the cryptocurrency market.
Investors now need to understand how inflation, interest rates, bond yields, energy prices and geopolitical risk can influence demand for Bitcoin.
This does not reduce Bitcoin’s long-term investment case. It simply means that short-term price movements are increasingly shaped by the same forces affecting other global assets.
Final Thoughts
Rising oil prices matter to Bitcoin investors because they can affect inflation, interest-rate expectations and overall appetite for risk.
The market is not only reacting to headlines from the Middle East. It is reacting to what those developments could mean for the wider global economy.
If higher energy prices keep inflation elevated, central banks may be less willing to reduce interest rates, creating a more difficult environment for Bitcoin and other volatile assets.
For long-term investors, understanding these connections may be just as valuable as watching Bitcoin’s price chart.
US Government Moves Nearly $300m In Bitcoin And Ethereum. Should Investors Be Concerned?
The US government has transferred almost $300m worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime, prompting speculation over a potential sale. Here's what investors need to know.
The US government has transferred nearly $300m worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime, sparking fresh speculation that some of its sizeable cryptocurrency holdings could soon be sold.
Blockchain data shows that approximately 3,940 Bitcoin and more than 30,000 Ether were moved on Monday from government-linked wallets to Coinbase Prime, an institutional platform used for cryptocurrency custody, trading and financing services.
Although large transfers to exchanges often raise concerns about potential selling pressure, the transactions do not confirm that the assets are about to be sold.
Instead, the movement has renewed debate over how the US government intends to manage its growing cryptocurrency holdings following President Donald Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order.
What Was Transferred?
According to on-chain data, the US government transferred approximately 3,940 Bitcoin, valued at around $244m, alongside 30,014 Ether worth roughly $53m.
The Bitcoin is understood to have originated from assets seized in connection with Ryan Farace, also known online as "Xanaxman", and the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange BTC-e.
Meanwhile, the Ether has been linked to cryptocurrency seized from Brian Krewson, an Oracle employee implicated in a crypto storage and money laundering scheme.
The combined transfer makes it one of the largest government-linked crypto movements seen so far this year.
Does This Mean The Government Is Selling?
Not necessarily.
Whilst cryptocurrency transfers to exchange platforms often fuel speculation about an imminent sale, Coinbase Prime offers far more than simple trading services.
The platform provides institutional custody, asset management, financing and other services used by governments, corporations and investment firms.
As a result, the transfer could simply represent an internal operational move, improved custody arrangements or the consolidation of assets rather than preparation for a sale.
Without an official statement from US authorities, it is impossible to conclude that the cryptocurrency is about to enter the market.
Why Investors Are Watching Closely
The transfer has attracted particular attention because it appears, at first glance, to sit uneasily alongside President Trump's executive order signed in March 2025.
The order established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, directing that Bitcoin seized through criminal and civil forfeiture should be retained rather than routinely sold.
That policy marked a significant shift from previous administrations, which frequently auctioned seized Bitcoin after legal proceedings had concluded.
If the government were to sell a substantial amount of Bitcoin now, investors would inevitably question whether that commitment remains unchanged.
However, at this stage, there is no evidence that the latest transfer represents a policy change.
The US Government Remains One Of The World's Largest Bitcoin Holders
Even after Monday's transfer, the US government is estimated to hold around $20.6bn worth of digital assets.
Those holdings reportedly include approximately 325,000 Bitcoin, alongside thousands of Ether, millions of USDT and other cryptocurrencies obtained through law enforcement seizures.
Because of the size of these holdings, any movement from government-controlled wallets is closely monitored by traders, who worry that large-scale sales could temporarily increase supply entering the market.
Historically, however, many government wallet transfers have not resulted in immediate sales.
Why On-Chain Movements Don't Always Tell The Full Story
Blockchain data offers unprecedented transparency, allowing anyone to monitor transactions from known government wallets.
However, whilst these movements can reveal where assets are being transferred, they cannot explain why those transfers are taking place.
A transaction to an institutional platform may indicate preparation for a sale, but it could equally reflect improved custody arrangements, legal administration or other operational requirements.
For that reason, investors should be cautious about drawing conclusions based solely on wallet activity without official confirmation.
Final Thoughts
The US government's transfer of nearly $300m in Bitcoin and Ethereum has understandably caught the market's attention, particularly given its substantial cryptocurrency holdings and the significance of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
However, the movement alone should not be interpreted as confirmation that a sale is imminent.
Until further information emerges, the transfer remains just that – a transfer. Whilst investors will continue monitoring government wallets closely, there is currently no evidence that the latest transaction signals a change in US policy towards its Bitcoin reserves.
Why Do Bitcoin Traders Care About Options Expiry?
Bitcoin options expiry is often linked to increased market volatility, but does it really move the price? Here's why traders watch it closely and what it can, and can't, tell us.
Every Friday, social media fills with posts claiming that billions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin options are about to expire. Some traders predict huge price swings, while others insist the market will be drawn towards a specific level known as 'max pain'.
But does options expiry really matter, or is it simply another piece of market noise?
The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Whilst options expiry can influence Bitcoin's short-term price action, it is rarely the sole reason behind a major rally or sell-off. Instead, it is one of several indicators traders use to gauge market sentiment and identify potential areas of volatility.
What Is Bitcoin Options Expiry?
A Bitcoin option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price before a set date.
Every option has an expiry date. Once that date arrives, the contract is settled based on Bitcoin's market price. If the option finishes 'in the money', it has value. If it does not, it expires worthless.
Although the process sounds technical, the important point for most investors is that large numbers of these contracts often expire on the same day. When billions of pounds or dollars are tied to particular price levels, traders naturally begin paying closer attention to where Bitcoin is trading.
Why Can Options Expiry Affect Bitcoin's Price?
Options themselves do not directly move Bitcoin's price. Instead, the activity surrounding them can increase market volatility.
Many institutions and professional traders hedge their options positions by buying or selling Bitcoin, futures or other derivatives. As Bitcoin's price changes, these hedges often need to be adjusted to reduce risk.
At the same time, traders may decide to close profitable positions, roll contracts into a future expiry or open fresh trades based on where they expect Bitcoin to move next.
When thousands of traders are making similar adjustments within a short period, trading volumes can increase significantly. This can lead to larger price swings than would normally occur on a quiet trading day.
However, it is important to remember that options expiry does not guarantee volatility. Some of the largest expiry events pass with very little impact on Bitcoin's price.
What Is 'Max Pain'?
One of the most widely discussed concepts around options expiry is known as the 'max pain' theory.
Max pain refers to the price at which the greatest number of options contracts would expire worthless. Some traders believe Bitcoin has a tendency to drift towards this level as expiry approaches because it would result in the largest losses for options buyers.
The theory has become popular across cryptocurrency markets, but there is little evidence to suggest that Bitcoin consistently settles at the max pain price.
Whilst it can sometimes act as an interesting reference point, Bitcoin is influenced by countless other factors, including global economic data, investor sentiment and institutional demand. As a result, traders should be cautious about assuming the market will always move towards a particular strike price.
Why Do Traders Watch The Put-To-Call Ratio?
Another closely watched metric is the put-to-call ratio.
Call options are generally associated with traders expecting prices to rise, whilst put options are more commonly used by those anticipating a decline or seeking protection against one.
If significantly more call options are being purchased than puts, it may suggest traders are becoming increasingly optimistic. Conversely, a rise in put buying can indicate growing caution.
However, the picture is rarely that straightforward.
Professional investors often use options to hedge existing positions rather than speculate on Bitcoin's direction. A trader buying puts may simply be protecting a long-term Bitcoin holding rather than expecting a market crash.
For that reason, the put-to-call ratio should be viewed as a useful sentiment indicator rather than a prediction of where Bitcoin will trade next.
Why Options Expiry Is Only Part Of The Story
Whilst options expiry can create short-term volatility, it rarely overrides broader market forces.
Bitcoin continues to react strongly to macroeconomic developments such as inflation data, central bank decisions, exchange-traded fund flows, geopolitical tensions and movements in traditional financial markets.
For example, a stronger-than-expected US inflation report or an unexpected interest rate decision is likely to have a much greater impact on Bitcoin than options expiry alone.
Likewise, significant institutional buying or selling can easily outweigh any influence created by expiring contracts.
This is why experienced traders rarely rely on options data in isolation. Instead, they combine it with technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators and on-chain data to build a broader picture of market conditions.
Should Investors Pay Attention?
For long-term investors, options expiry is unlikely to change the fundamental outlook for Bitcoin.
However, it can help explain why prices sometimes become more volatile around certain Fridays, particularly when large numbers of contracts are due to expire.
Understanding options data can also provide valuable insight into market sentiment. It offers a glimpse into how professional traders are positioning themselves and which price levels are attracting the greatest attention.
That said, options should be viewed as just one piece of the puzzle rather than a reliable indicator of Bitcoin's next move.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin options expiry has earned a reputation for triggering increased volatility, but its influence is often overstated.
Whilst the expiry of large numbers of contracts can encourage traders to rebalance positions and increase trading activity, Bitcoin's price remains heavily influenced by broader economic conditions, investor sentiment and institutional flows.
Rather than treating options expiry as a guaranteed catalyst, investors should view it as another tool for understanding market behaviour. When combined with technical analysis and macroeconomic trends, it can offer useful context, but it is rarely enough to determine Bitcoin's direction on its own.
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