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- Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 198
Crypto Saving Expert Newsletter - Issue 198
GM.
Global markets are beginning to shift from fear back towards opportunity.
The S&P 500 has broken into price discovery, oil prices are falling as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz ease, and investors are once again turning their attention towards growth, AI and risk assets.
Bitcoin, however, is still waiting for its moment.
It remains trapped between $62,000 and $67,000, but after nearly 70 days of consolidation, history suggests that the next major expansion could be approaching.
Whether Bitcoin follows equities towards new highs or loses support and revisits the macro lows will likely depend on this week’s employment data, institutional demand and whether geopolitical conditions continue to improve.
The market may look quiet, but pressure is building beneath the surface.
Let’s break it down.👇
Table of Contents
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Bitcoin Awaits Its Time
Bitcoin’s consolidation is beginning to resemble its previous two consolidatory periods, with a big, volatile move coming after. At the same time, the stock market has made new record highs, raising the question: when is it Bitcoin’s turn to move?
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains within the range from $62,000 to $67,000, but does continue to provide scalp and day trade opportunities.
However, once Bitcoin finally does break out of the range, it has two regions of interest that would also make logical sense for it to trade into.
To the upside, this would be towards $73,000 as it has a fairly large region of imbalance to trade within, which was left behind on the drop.
To the downside, a test of demand down the current macro lows would be not too much of a drop if it broke support.
Consolidation Pattern
So far on the high time frame downtrend and bear market which began last year, Bitcoin has spent most of its time in consolidation.
This has been made up of three ranges, with short bursts of volatility and expansion coming thereafter.
However, each consolidation has gone on for a similar amount of time, roughly 70 days before volatility and momentum kick in.
On this third range, Bitcoin has now approached the same period of time as the previous two, which suggests we could see a move soon.
Ethereum
Ethereum had a strong July, which resulted in it flipping resistance to support. This is the key S/R region for its current price action.
It is essential that ETH stays above this line in the sand, which it has done thus far; otherwise, it could plunge to the downside.
However, while Ethereum consolidates, it provides the chance that an upside move may be the end result. From here, there are two identifiable areas it could trade into.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs on Tuesday, breaking above the previous all time high and entering price discovery.
Tuesday’s daily candle was expansive, offering a huge burst of upside momentum as demand flowed into the stock market, which added over $1 trillion in value on a single day.
This took 89 days to occur, after the SPX consolidated throughout May, June, and July.
Still, it could now facilitate a new leg higher in the SPX, which would provide great conditions for Mag 7, memory, semiconductors, and general large caps to flourish.
URNM
The key theme on the mind at the moment is energy, especially with the push from the Trump administration towards Nuclear. The mining sector has presented some great opportunities, and the one which caught the eye is URNM, which is the miners ETF. This is listed on Blofin and available on perps.
There are two potential setups for this. Should we hold this current level, we could see a sustained push back into the range. Should this be held, there is then the possibility of a march back up, sweeping the highs at $84.
You can play $URNM both as a perp and spot play on Blofin.
XLE
Sticking on the energy front, it is expected that energy remains tight and a key theme throughout the year. With energy companies across the chain making record profits, the ETF XLE remains a solid position to be exposed to.
We covered this in a previous newsletter, and the thesis remains valid. There are several dip opportunities on this, and scaled orders on Blofin would be ideal for capturing this.
This also provides a good hedge to crypto and risk positions as energy is correlated to risk assets.
You can play $XLE both as a perp and spot play on Blofin.
Important Dates
Wednesday 5 August, 13:15 BST - ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) releases employment change for the US. A higher figure is bullish for the markets due to increased employment, which suggests economic strength.
The consensus is set at 70,000, with the previous data coming in at 98,000.
Wednesday 5 August, 15:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases this data, with it providing a measure of the US non-manufacturing sector. It is considered positive if the figure is above the 50 mark, with the forecast at 54.5.
Friday 7 August, 13:30 BST - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the NFP. This form of data represents the number of new jobs created in the previous month, which will be December and is another signal of economic health.
The consensus is set at 80,000, with the previous data at 57,000.
Fear And Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index resides in the Fear section, scoring 27.
While Bitcoin remains range-bound, sentiment is mirroring that and remains low.
Should Bitcoin begin to make a push higher, then we could see a burst of optimism enter the market. Until then, we are witnessing that typical bear market sentiment.
Gainers
Losers
Why Governments Around The World Are Increasingly Targeting Telegram
Russia has placed Telegram founder Pavel Durov on an international wanted list. Here's why governments across the world are putting growing pressure on the encrypted messaging platform.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov is once again at the centre of a legal battle.
Russian authorities have placed the entrepreneur on an international wanted list, accusing him of facilitating terrorist activity through Telegram by failing to remove channels allegedly used by extremist groups and foreign intelligence services.
The development comes just months after France launched its own criminal investigation into Durov over alleged illegal activity on the platform.
Although the cases involve different allegations, they highlight a broader trend: governments across the world are increasingly trying to exert greater control over encrypted messaging services.
Why Is Russia Targeting Telegram?
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claims Telegram has failed to remove channels, chats and bots allegedly used to coordinate attacks, recruit operatives and carry out cybercrime.
As a result, authorities have charged Durov with facilitating terrorist activity and issued an international arrest warrant.
Durov has repeatedly rejected the allegations, arguing that Russian authorities are using legal action as a way to pressure Telegram into weakening privacy protections and limiting free speech.
This Isn't Just A Russian Issue
The latest case follows a separate investigation in France, where prosecutors have examined Telegram's handling of illegal content on the platform.
While French authorities have since lifted travel restrictions on Durov, the investigation remains ongoing.
Together, the two cases demonstrate that scrutiny of Telegram is no longer confined to a single country.
Instead, governments with very different political systems are increasingly asking similar questions about how online platforms should police user-generated content.
The Privacy Versus Security Debate
Telegram has built much of its reputation on privacy, encryption and resistance to censorship.
Supporters argue these features protect journalists, activists and ordinary users from surveillance.
Critics counter that the same tools can also be exploited by criminal organisations, extremist groups and fraudsters.
The challenge for regulators is finding a balance between protecting public safety and preserving digital privacy.
That debate has become increasingly important as messaging platforms play a larger role in global communication.
Why The Crypto Industry Is Watching
Telegram has long held close ties to the cryptocurrency community.
Many crypto projects use the platform as their primary communication channel, while blockchain-based applications and digital asset communities rely heavily on Telegram groups and bots.
Any regulatory action affecting Telegram therefore attracts significant attention from the crypto industry.
Although the latest case is not directly related to digital assets, it reflects wider concerns about how governments may regulate decentralised technologies and privacy-focused platforms.
What Happens Next?
It remains unclear whether Russia's international arrest warrant will lead to any practical action against Durov.
The legal proceedings in both Russia and France are expected to continue, and Telegram has not indicated that it plans to alter its approach to content moderation in response.
For now, the platform remains operational and continues to serve hundreds of millions of users worldwide.
Final Thoughts
The latest action against Pavel Durov is about more than one individual.
It reflects a growing global debate over who should control online platforms, how illegal content should be moderated and where the balance between privacy and security should be drawn.
As encrypted communication becomes increasingly important, clashes between governments and technology companies are likely to become more common.
Telegram has found itself at the centre of that debate, and the outcome could have implications that extend far beyond the messaging platform itself.
The Market Has Moved On From War. Here’s What’s Driving Investors Now
Oil prices have fallen, geopolitical tensions have eased, and global markets are rallying. Here’s why investors are shifting their focus back towards growth, AI and Bitcoin.
Only a week ago, global markets were dominated by headlines from the Middle East.
Today, investors are focusing on something very different.
Falling oil prices, easing geopolitical tensions and improving economic data have helped restore confidence across financial markets.
Equities have moved higher, technology shares are regaining momentum, and investors are beginning to rotate back into risk assets.
For Bitcoin, that shift in sentiment could matter just as much as any crypto-specific development.
Markets Are Moving From Fear To Opportunity
Markets spent much of July preparing for the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
That pushed oil prices higher, revived inflation concerns, and encouraged investors to reduce their risk exposure.
Now, the immediate threat of further escalation appears to be easing.
As a result, traders have started removing some of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up across energy and equity markets.
The change has supported stocks while sending crude oil sharply lower.
Lower Oil Changes The Inflation Outlook
Oil prices affect almost every part of the global economy.
When crude rises, transport becomes more expensive, businesses face higher costs, and inflation becomes more difficult to control.
When oil falls, those pressures begin to ease.
That is one reason investors have become more optimistic over recent sessions.
Lower energy prices could improve the inflation outlook and reduce the risk that central banks need to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Why Bitcoin Could Benefit
Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to global liquidity and investor sentiment.
When markets become more comfortable taking risks, Bitcoin often benefits alongside technology shares and other growth assets.
The cryptocurrency has also shown resilience throughout the recent geopolitical uncertainty, remaining within a relatively stable trading range despite sharp movements in oil and equities.
That does not guarantee further gains, but it suggests investors have not abandoned the market.
If macroeconomic conditions continue improving, Bitcoin could benefit from renewed demand through spot ETFs and wider institutional allocation.
Investors Are Looking Ahead Again
Attention is now shifting away from military developments and back towards the themes that usually drive markets over longer periods.
Economic growth.
Inflation.
Federal Reserve policy.
Artificial intelligence investment.
Corporate earnings.
Institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This change matters because markets generally perform better when investors can focus on earnings, growth and liquidity rather than sudden geopolitical shocks.
What Investors Should Watch Next
The latest improvement in sentiment could still reverse if geopolitical tensions return or economic data disappoints.
Over the coming weeks, investors should watch:
Whether oil prices remain contained.
Fresh US inflation and employment data.
Federal Reserve commentary.
AI-related corporate earnings.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold key support levels.
These factors will help determine whether the current rally develops into a broader trend or proves to be another short-lived recovery.
Final Thoughts
The biggest market story is not simply that oil has fallen or stocks have risen.
It is that investors appear to be moving beyond one of the biggest risks that dominated sentiment throughout July.
Attention is returning to growth, earnings, inflation and liquidity.
For Bitcoin, that could create a more supportive backdrop as investors become increasingly willing to hold higher-risk assets.
Sometimes, major rallies do not begin with one powerful headline.
They begin when investors stop focusing on fear and start looking for opportunity again.
The Strait Of Hormuz Could Reopen. Here’s Why Global Markets Are Turning More Optimistic
Reports suggest the US and Iran are close to an agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Here's why the development could lower oil prices and improve the outlook for Bitcoin and global markets.
One of the biggest risks facing global markets may finally be starting to ease.
Reports suggest that US, Iranian, and Omani officials are close to reaching an interim agreement that would allow commercial shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy corridors.
While negotiations are still ongoing and no agreement has been formally announced, investors have already begun pricing in the possibility of de-escalation.
For financial markets, that could prove to be one of the most important macro developments in weeks.
Why The Strait Of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global seaborne oil shipments, making it one of the world's most strategically important waterways.
When conflict threatened commercial shipping, oil prices surged as traders priced in the possibility of supply disruptions.
That pushed inflation expectations higher and weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
If shipping can safely resume, those fears may begin to fade.
Oil Markets Have Already Responded
Energy markets have reacted quickly to the improving outlook.
Oil prices have retreated from recent highs as investors unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into crude markets.
Lower oil prices matter because they reduce costs across the wider economy, easing pressure on businesses, consumers and central banks.
If the trend continues, it could strengthen expectations that inflation will continue to moderate over the coming months.
Why This Matters For Bitcoin
Bitcoin increasingly trades alongside broader macroeconomic trends rather than purely crypto-specific news.
Lower oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions typically improve investor confidence, supporting demand for higher-risk assets.
That does not guarantee Bitcoin will rally, but it creates a healthier backdrop than markets faced only a few weeks ago.
With institutional investors now playing a much larger role through spot Bitcoin ETFs, changes in liquidity and market sentiment have become increasingly important drivers of price action.
Negotiations Are Not Finished Yet
Despite the growing optimism, investors should remember that negotiations remain ongoing.
No formal agreement has been announced, and officials have stressed that discussions are continuing.
Markets are therefore likely to remain sensitive to fresh headlines until any deal is officially confirmed.
If negotiations break down, oil prices could quickly reverse higher and geopolitical risks would return to the forefront.
What Investors Should Watch
Confirmation of any US-Iran agreement.
The reopening of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil price movements over the coming days.
Inflation expectations and central bank commentary.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Bitcoin's response as macro sentiment improves.
Final Thoughts
The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is about much more than oil.
It represents the possibility that one of the biggest risks hanging over global markets may finally be starting to fade.
If diplomacy succeeds, lower energy prices could ease inflation concerns, improve investor confidence and create a more supportive environment for equities and cryptocurrencies.
For Bitcoin investors, the message is simple: macro conditions are becoming more favourable, but until an agreement is officially confirmed, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to every new development.
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